Severe Thunderstorm Warning 403, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
322 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms this evening and overnight, with main threat brief
  microburst winds and isolated heavy rain.

- For the first time since back in mid/late July, much of the
  area will see highs in the 80s on Thursday! However, "cool-
  down" will be short-lived as we get back into the upper 90s to
  around 100 for Sunday and Monday.

- Periodic storm chances for Friday night through next week,
  with the highest chances Monday night into Tuesday as another
  cold front moves through.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Currently have a shortwave trough tracking across southern
Ontario with another impulse tracking out of the Northern
Rockies. Cold front currently stretches from Central MO, to
along Highway 50 in central KS and into southwest KS.

Surface based storms have started to increase in coverage over
the last couple of hours along the front and along outflow
produced from previous storms over mainly south central KS.
This trend is expected to continue as we head through the late
afternoon and early evening hours, with areas south of Highway
50 seeing the better coverage. An isolated downburst to 60 mph
will be possible with the stronger storms. We may see a break
after this initial activity slowly weakens and pushes south this
evening. We are then looking for a jet max to sink south
tonight placing much of the area in the right entrance region.
In addition, there has been some model consistency in swinging
through a weak mid level trough tonight. This should allow
convection to expand, especially after 06z. While widespread
severe storms are not anticipated, some small hail, 50-60 mph
winds and brief heavy rain will be possible.

Storms should be ongoing across southern KS Thursday morning as
mid level trough continues to slowly slide east. However, by the
afternoon hours, precip is expected to be south and east of the
forecast area. For the first time since back on July 23rd, we
are looking for highs in the 80s on Thursday!

For Thu night into Fri, upper troughing will start to dig from
the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies. This will
quickly get the Plains back into return flow and allow above
normal temps to quickly return, with widespread low 90s likely
for Fri. Still looking for storms to develop along a cold front
to our north on Friday evening. There are still a couple model
solutions tracking this convection through parts of our forecast
area Fri night into Sat morning. However, confidence is low as
it will be highly dependent on where storms initially develop
along the front. A much more robust upper low will move into the
Pacific Northwest late Sat night into Sun morning. This will
allow low level jet to ramp-up Sat night and may bring some
additional storm chances into Sun morning.

Bad news is that confidence is increasing in above normal temps
for Sun into Mon with mid to upper 90s likely. Based on 850mb
temps and 1000-850mb partial thicknesses, don't think it's out
of the question that some sites could hit 100 on Sun-Mon. There
is good agreement between the GFS and ECMWF in a strong cold
front moving through Mon evening through Tue with high storm
chances expected along it.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Scattered to at times numerous showers and thunderstorms will
impact portions of central, south-central, and southeast Kansas
this afternoon through tonight, in vicinity of a slow moving
cold front. While widespread severe weather is not expected, a
few of the stronger storms may be capable of localized 50+ kt
downburst winds and heavy rain. Covered this threat mainly with
PROB30 groups for now, although later shifts will likely need to
insert TEMPO groups.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ069>072-082-
083-091>096-098>100.

&&

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...ADK
CLIMATE...JC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
330 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-101315-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
330 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
east central Kansas, south central Kansas and southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Heat indices between 105 and 109 are likely into the early evening
hours across far southern and southeast Kansas.

Scattered to numerous storms are expected this evening through
tonight across the region, with the most widespread activity
generally along and south of Highway 56. A few strong to marginally
severe thunderstorms are possible, with localized downbursts causing
wind gusts up to 65 mph and small hail. Additionally, pockets of
heavy rainfall may cause localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Showers and storms may linger until late Thursday morning or early
Thursday afternoon across south-central and southeast Kansas.

Scattered storm chances will return for Friday night and continue
through Tuesday. A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms
will be possible along with heavy rainfall and localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight. However, we would
appreciate any reports of severe weather or flooding.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict