Severe Thunderstorm Warning 368, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1200 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms are possible late tonight into early
  Friday morning, mainly along and west of I-135. Main concerns
  are wind gusts up to 65 mph and up to quarter size hail.

- Additional periodic storm chances Friday afternoon through
  Sunday morning. A few strong storms are possible.

- Dry and seasonably warm conditions forecast for next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

     THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

As of early this afternoon, modest zonal to northwest flow continues
over the central plains with a subtle shortwave trough exiting
eastward across Iowa and Missouri, and another progressing
eastward over the central Rockies. Subtle mid-level WAA behind
the former feature has lead to isolated showers throughout the
day across mainly far southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma.
Meanwhile, the latter feature will support a complex of storms
moving through the forecast area late tonight into early Friday
morning.

It feels as through we've repeated the same thing for the 30th
time this summer: strong to severe storms are possible late
tonight into the overnight hours. The arrival of the shortwave
trough across the Rockies will trigger widespread thunderstorm
development across the High Plains late this afternoon. These
storms will congeal into a complex/loosely organized squall line
and push eastward across Kansas late tonight into early Friday
morning. Short range guidance this morning is in good agreement
that these storms will track down an axis of instability draped
across Kansas; however, this instability will decrease with
eastward extent leading to some uncertainty in the intensity of
these storms as they enter into the forecast area. Most likely,
severe storms will be limited to locations west of I-135, but an
occasional severe wind gust is possible as far east as the
Flint Hills. Given the amount of CIN that will build across the
area overnight along with marginal low-level shear, a brief
QLCS tornado appears unlikely, but any storms associated with
organized cold pools may be able to produce localized wind gusts
up around 55-65 mph despite the low-level inhibition. There's
also an outside chance for up to quarter size hail, but given
the messy/linear storm mode, most will see small hail, if any at
all. As storms move east of the I-135, the intensity of these
storms should decrease, but chances for festering, sub-severe
showers and storms will continue through much of Friday morning.

     FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

The residual outflow boundary from Friday morning's storms is
forecast to be laid out west-to-east across southern Kansas or
northern Oklahoma by Friday afternoon. Widely scattered
diurnally driven storms are forecast to develop along this
boundary. While shear would support organized storms, there's
some questions about how much the atmosphere will destabilize
during the day on Friday. That being said, any storms that do
develop will likely be strong to marginally severe with up to 60
mph wind gusts and up to quarter size hail possible.
Additionally, another round of storms will develop across the
High Plains and progress eastward across southern Kansas and
northern Oklahoma late Friday night into Saturday morning. By
the time this complex of storms gets into the forecast area
overnight Friday night, it's likely they will be sub-severe, but
trends will need to be monitored over the next day or so.

Additional storms are possible across far southern and southeast
Kansas Saturday through early Sunday morning. Again, some of these
storms could be strong, but limited shear and instability should put
a fairly low ceiling on the intensity of this activity.

     SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK...

As we head into next week, mid to long-range guidance continues to
remain in agreement that a strong mid/upper ridge will build over
the northern plains. With the center of this ridge forecast to
be so far north, it currently appears as through the region will
avoid the worst of the heat through midweek. There's still time
for some changes, but as guidance has been very consistent on
this for awhile now, confidence is fairly high that temperatures
will be near average to start off next week. Also, the pattern
change is likely to cutoff rain chances for much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Numerous showers/storms will move eastward across mainly central
Kansas overnight. Gusty winds out of the west and periods of
heavy rainfall is expected from this activity. Otherwise showers
and storms will begin to diminish towards daybreak with light
northeast/easterly winds prevailing during the day on Friday.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...CDJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
823 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-110130-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
823 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
east central Kansas, south central Kansas and southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorm chances are expected to increase later tonight. A few
of the strongest storms across central and south-central Kansas may
be capable of 50 to 65 mph winds, small hail, and locally heavy
rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Off-and-on thunderstorm chances are expected to persist Friday
through Saturday night. While widespread severe weather appears
unlikely, a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible, along
with locally heavy rainfall. Stay tuned as we refine forecast
details in the coming days.

Afternoon through early evening heat indices around 100 degrees are
expected over mainly southern Kansas Friday and Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita KS
733 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0732 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Belle Plaine            37.39N 97.28W
07/09/2026  M60 MPH          Sumner             KS   Public

            Also reported quarter size hail.

&&

CDJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita KS
734 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     Hail             1 E Belle Plaine        37.40N 97.26W
07/09/2026  M1.75 Inch       Sumner             KS   Storm Chaser

&&

MWM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita KS
737 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0736 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 WNW Udall             37.40N 97.17W
07/09/2026  E60 MPH          Sumner             KS   Trained Spotter

            60 mph outflow winds estimated.

&&

MWM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita KS
745 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0744 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Kingman                 37.65N 98.11W
07/09/2026  E60 MPH          Kingman            KS   Public

&&

CDJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita KS
752 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Udall                   37.39N 97.12W
07/09/2026  E60 MPH          Cowley             KS   Fire Dept/Rescue

&&

CDJ