Severe Thunderstorm Warning 342, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
645 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated strong/severe storms could affect parts of central Kansas
tonight and again on Wednesday

- Heat will continue to persist over the region with the hottest
temperatures/higher heat indices expected for Friday through
upcoming weekend

- Next chances for storms looks to affect the region for
  Saturday night into Sunday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Current water vapor satellite/ALPW Polar satellite analysis was
showing a plume of deeper moisture over New Mexico/southwest Texas
streaming northward into western/central Kansas. This axis of
moisture sparked off morning/afternoon high based
showers/storms with activity continuing to fester. Meanwhile a
stationary surface boundary was situated from southwest Kansas
into south central Nebraska. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop along the this stalled out boundary later
this afternoon/evening, then spread slowly northeast possibly
affecting parts of central Kansas by late evening. Wind shear
will be on the marginal side over central Kansas but decent
instability and inverted V-sounding supports severe downburst
winds as the primary risk. A repeat performance looks to unfold
again for Wednesday evening with storms developing in western
Kansas, and possibly affecting parts of central Kansas. Dry
weather is slated for Thursday.

Heading into Friday-Saturday, hotter temperatures and high humidity
levels will result in heat indices of 100 to 105 especially for
southeast Kansas. Models show a upper level wave moving across
Nebraska Saturday night which will bring the next chance of storms
to the region. The storms could linger into Sunday morning as they
track slowly southeast. The forecast gets a little more uncertain
with the pattern for Sunday night into early next week, as some
models are suggesting a upper level low loitering over the region
with more chances of showers/storms. This scenario would support
slightly cooler temperatures with clouds and precipitation over the
region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Thunderstorm chances are expected increase for mainly RSL and
GBD this evening, and possibly SLN and HUT as well. Mainly after
03-04z, and through 07-09z. Cannot completely rule out activity
getting near ICT, but thinking chances are low. Primary hazards
will be strong wind gusts, small hail, and locally heavy rain.
Otherwise, ended up eliminating low-level wind shear for the
evening and overnight hours from the 00z TAFs, as it looks
rather marginal.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...ADK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
617 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-012330-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
617 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
east central Kansas, south central Kansas and southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A few thunderstorms are possible during the late evening hours
across parts of central Kansas. An isolated strong to severe
thunderstorm is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Heat index values near 100 degrees are expected over southeast
Kansas Wednesday and Thursday. The heat indices look to increase
areawide for Friday and Saturday, with the highest heat indices
impacting mainly southeast Kansas.

A few thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening
hours again on Wednesday in central Kansas. An isolated strong to
severe thunderstorm is possible.

Additional thunderstorms look to return to the region for Saturday
night into Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict

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