Severe Thunderstorm Warning 337, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
705 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms late this afternoon
  through this evening, gradually exiting to the east-southeast
  later tonight. Severe weather, heavy rainfall, and flooding
  possible.

- Additional hit-or-miss thunderstorms possible Friday-Friday
  night, but widespread severe weather or heavy rainfall is not
  expected.

- Pattern change anticipated to start this weekend and last
  through most of next week. This will bring much hotter
  temperatures, mostly dry conditions, and gusty south winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...A cluster of showers and thunderstorms is
currently progressing east across central and eastern Kansas, ahead
of a mid-level impulse, and within a zone of modest 850-700mb warm
advection and moisture transport. This activity will be capable of
lower-end severe weather in the form of quarter size hail and 60 mph
winds, especially over far southern Kansas closer to the richer
instability. This activity should continue tracking east-
southeast into far southeast Kansas as we head into mid-late
afternoon.

Attention then turns to surface-based supercell potential later this
afternoon and into the evening, mainly over far southern Kansas and
northern Oklahoma, in the vicinity of a stalled outflow boundary.
Strong/fat instability coupled with decent deep layer shear and
weak/modest mid-level winds/shear should support a few HP supercells
and/or HP supercell clusters along/just north of the boundary,
capable of large hail and damaging winds. Additionally, impressive
low-level shear along/just north of the boundary along with decent
low-level buoyancy could favor a few tornadoes, some of which
could be strong. Storm motions look to be east to slightly
southeast. Based on observations trends, thinking north-central
and northwest OK have the greatest potential for these
supercells before about 8 PM, although it will be close for
southern portions of south-central KS. This activity should tend
to congeal into one or more thunderstorm clusters with time as
it moves east-southeast this evening.

Meanwhile further north, continued deep lift in vicinity of a
sharpening synoptic stationary front should support a gradual uptick
in scattered to numerous thunderstorm coverage later this afternoon
and evening, roughly along and either side of the Highway 56
corridor, with storm motions to the east-southeast. This activity
should be mostly elevated in nature, so the primary threats will be
large hail and perhaps some straight-line damaging winds with any
bowing segments. This activity looks to exit far southeast Kansas by
late tonight.

These two areas of thunderstorms this afternoon, evening, and
tonight coupled with very rich precipitable waters should support
pockets of very heavy rainfall, especially along/south of roughly
the Highway 56 corridor. Based on some of the latest CAM guidance,
wouldn't be surprised to see localized 3-5+ inch rainfall amounts,
especially where storms train over the same areas. Amounts like this
would favor flood/flash flood concerns, especially given the very
wet soils across the region. Hence, will continue the flood watch
areawide through tonight.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...Could have a few lingering
showers/thunderstorms across far southeast and southern Kansas
Friday in vicinity of the old frontal zone, with additional activity
possible late Friday night generally west of I-135. In all
instances, widespread severe weather or heavy rainfall is not
expected.

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...Building upper ridging will support a
pattern change, with mostly dry weather prevailing Saturday through
next week.

TEMPERATURES/WIND:

A building upper ridge will support a pattern change, with
increasing heat/humidity Saturday through next week. Given the
progged dewpoints and low-level thickness values, thinking a
prolonged period of 100-105+ degree heat indices are likely. We will
be monitoring for any possible heat advisories or excessive heat
warnings. Additionally, persistent lee troughing will support a
prolonged period of breezy/gusty south winds Saturday through next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 635 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Low confidence forecast this evening as showers and
thunderstorms will continue to move across the region through
the early morning hours. The strongest storms this evening will
be capable of producing heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and
gusty and erratic winds. The next issue will be IFR to LIFR
ceilings and visibilities expanding late tonight into early
tomorrow morning across all of our TAF sites. These low ceilings
will slowly rise and dissipate tomorrow morning into the
afternoon hours with a return to VFR conditions by late tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Friday morning for KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...WI

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
455 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-262200-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
455 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
east central Kansas, south central Kansas and southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to
impact the region this evening and tonight. The greatest potential
for a few severe thunderstorms along with heavy rainfall should
remain generally south of a line extending from Great Bend to
McPherson to Emporia. Localized heavy rainfall amounts may lead to
areas of flooding and flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible over far
southeast and southern Kansas Friday and Friday night, and mainly
west of Interstate 135 Friday night. Widespread severe weather or
heavy rainfall is unlikely.

Much warmer temperatures and high humidity will support heat
indices from around 100 to 105 degrees each afternoon Saturday
through Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Any reports of severe weather or flooding this evening and tonight
would be greatly appreciated.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict