Severe Thunderstorm Warning 330, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
635 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms possible late this afternoon into the early overnight
  hours mainly in southeast and southern KS with severe storms
  and flooding possible.

- Periodic storm chances will be possible for much of the week
  with chances increasing Tuesday night and continuing through
  Friday.

- Below normal high temperatures are forecast through Friday
  with highs in the 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

An upper shortwave trough is tracking east out of the Central
Rockies into the Central Plains with a surface low in northwestern
Oklahoma and a cold front extending from this low into central KS.
For later this afternoon into early tonight, storm development is
expected along the front as it continues to slowly push south with
the main chances in southeast KS and portions of our southern most
counties. Instability will increase from diurnal heating and
dewpoints rising into the mid to upper 70s, resulting in MUCAPE
values between 3000-3500 J/kg. This instability combined with 40 kts
of effective shear, DCAPE values up to 1200 J/kg, and mid-level
lapse rates between 7-7.5 C/km will be sufficient for severe storms
to develop with damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall as
the primary hazards. A brief landspout tornado can't be ruled out
this evening as low-level wind shear and 0-3km CAPE increases,
though chances remain very low. These storm chances will decrease
into the early overnight hours as activity shifts south into
Oklahoma. There is a low chance for storms to clip the western
fringes of our area tonight as storms roll off the High Plains into
western Kansas but the better chances should stay west of the area.

Drier conditions are expected as we move into Monday morning and
throughout the day Monday. A shortwave trough is progged to move
into the Northern Plains Monday night with a weaker wave moving into
the Central and Southern Rockies which will initiate another round
of storms Monday night into Tuesday morning. There is a very low
chance this activity impacts southern KS with the better chances
remaining south in Oklahoma. Storm chances will be possible on
Tuesday afternoon with about a 30% chance for areas along and west
of I-135 as storms dive south out of Nebraska. Better chances will
arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a stronger shortwave
slides across the Northern Plains with a LLJ anticipated to
increase across the Southern Plains into Kansas. Shower and
storm chances are expected to decrease throughout the day on
Wednesday.

This active pattern will continue through Friday as flow aloft
continues to be westerly to northwesterly over the Central Plains
with embedded shortwaves progged to slide across the region. This
will result in storms rolling off the High Plains into our area with
the highest chances in the evenings into the overnight hours,
keeping periodic rain chances through much of the week. For
temperatures, highs are forecast to be in the low to mid 80s through
much of the work week which is about 5-10 degrees below normal for
this time of year. A pattern chance is expected this weekend as
upper ridging moves into the Plains with a deep upper trough digging
into the Northern Intermountain. Thickness will increase aiding
in warmer temperatures with highs likely to rise into the 90s
over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Scattered thunderstorms could potentially impact TAF sites for
all sites except SLN through 04-06Z. Main operational impacts
would be gusty winds, reduced vis, and low cigs.

After convection clears out, generally between 06-09Z, MVFR to
potentially IFR ceilings will impact all locations through
16-18Z. Northeasterly to easterly winds around or just under 10
knots are expected through the period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Monday for KSZ070>072-092>096-
098>100.

&&

DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...AMD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
223 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-221930-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
223 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
east central Kansas, south central Kansas and southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Storms will be possible this afternoon into tonight, mainly across
southern and southeast Kansas. Hail up to ping pong size, 60-70 mph
winds, heavy rainfall, and additional flooding concerns will be
possible with this activity. A Flood Watch remains in effect through
tonight for southeast and portions of southern Kansas.

Several rivers across the area have gone into flood, please see the
latest river flood warnings for additional details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Several rivers across the area are expected to go into flood over
the next few days. See latest river flood warnings for additional
details.

Storm chances will return for Monday night and will start
to increase for Tuesday night through the remainder of the work
week. Some strong to severe storms will be possible through this
period, along with heavy rain and flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated this afternoon or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita KS
702 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 PM     Flood            Independence            37.22N 95.71W
06/21/2026                   Montgomery         KS   Emergency Mngr

            EM shared photos of minor street flooding
            and road closures.

&&