Severe Thunderstorm Warning 312, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
333 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widely scattered showers and storms possible late this
  afternoon into tonight mainly in central KS.

- Numerous storms are expected Saturday night into Sunday
  morning with severe storms likely. Damaging winds, large hail,
  and heavy rainfall are the main hazards, though a brief
  tornado cannot be ruled out.

- Below normal high temperatures are forecast for Saturday
  through much of the next work week with highs in the low to
  mid 80s with additional rain chances possible next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

An upper shortwave trough is sliding across the Northern Plains into
the Upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a front is draped down
from the low in northern Minnesota into southern Nebraska with
showers and storms ongoing in northern Kansas. Late this
afternoon into the evening, weak 850-700 mb warm moist advection
will increase making showers and storms possible mainly in
central KS. As we move into tonight, the cold front will shift
into northern to central Kansas allowing this activity to linger
into the overnight hours. Its possible for some showers and
storms to shift into south-central KS as moisture continues to
surge north, though chances remain low. A few strong storms are
possible in central KS given MUCAPE values between 1000-1500
J/kg with 35-40kts of effective shear. The main hazard with this
would be small hail and locally brief heavy rainfall. Slight
storm chances are possible to linger into Saturday morning with
chances decreasing mid Saturday morning.

The main focus for severe weather continues to be Saturday night
into Sunday morning. The front will remain in northern KS Saturday
afternoon into the night. Low-level upslope flow with warm moist
advection will set up in southwestern Nebraska into northwestern
Kansas late Saturday afternoon into the early evening which will
initiate storm development. Additionally, storm chances will
continue to increase late Saturday night as a shortwave trough moves
into the Central Rockies Saturday night combined with a
strengthening LLJ. Initial storm development in northwest KS is
expected to grow upscale relatively quick as the bulk shear vector
is oriented along the boundary with a MCS anticipated to track east
into central and eastern KS, though there is some uncertainty with
how far south/southeast into south-central and southeast KS this
system tracks. Modest instability combined with 40-50 kts of
effective shear and up to 1200 J/kg of DCAPE will make damaging
winds the main hazard, though large hail up to ping pong size cannot
be ruled out. Heavy rainfall with potential flooding concerns is
also likely given this moist airmass with PWATS around 1.8 inches
which is slightly under the maximum for this time of year. A few
brief tornadoes cannot be ruled out given increasing low-level shear
and backed winds near the frontal boundary. Storm chances will
continue into the overnight hours and into Sunday morning, though
its uncertain how long severe storms will persist. By Sunday
morning, activity is expected to have shifted to eastern KS with
storm chances transitioning to southern KS Sunday afternoon into
Sunday night along the front as the shortwave trough slides across
the Central Plains.

Continuing into next week, most of Monday looks to remain dry before
rain chances increase Monday night into Tuesday as an upper trough
is progged to move into the Northern Plains on Monday night. Upper
ridging will build into the western CONUS, shifting flow aloft to
northwesterly in the Central Plains by Wednesday. Another shortwave
trough is progged to ride the ridge and eject into the Northern
Plains on Wednesday night leading to better rain chances across the
area Wednesday night into Thursday. For temperatures, highs are
forecast to be in the low to mid 80s through much of the work week
which is about 5-10 degrees below normal for this time of year.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Can't rule out a few stray showers/thunderstorms for RSL, SLN,
GBD, and possibly even HUT and ICT anytime later this afternoon
through tonight, in response to persistent 800-600mb warm
advection amidst returning deep moisture. While we think a few
showers/storms will develop, predictability on where/when this
activity will hit is low. Consequently, did not include in 18z
routine TAF issuance, although will monitor for possible
amendments.

Otherwise, thinking chances for MVFR ceilings will increase
later tonight for mainly RSL, SLN, GBD, as moisture continues to
increase amidst boundary layer cooling.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...ADK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
337 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-202045-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
337 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
east central Kansas, south central Kansas and southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

A few thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon through
tonight over mainly central and north-central Kansas. Nickel size
hail may accompany the strongest activity.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

A complex of storms is expected to track out of northwest Kansas
and southern Nebraska on Saturday night into Sunday morning,
affecting much of the area. 60 to 80 mph winds, ping pong size
hail, heavy rain and potentially some flooding concerns will be
possible. Some of this activity may linger into Sunday morning,
especially across eastern Kansas.

Periodic storm chances will remain in the forecast for Monday night
through Thursday with some strong and severe storms possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict