Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1202 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Precipitation chances early this afternoon through Monday
  morning. Mix of rain & sleet possible this afternoon, then a
  chance of patchy freezing drizzle possible tonight into Monday
  morning across central Kansas. A few thunderstorms possible
  this afternoon into tonight across south-central & southeast
  Kansas.

- Chances for thunderstorms Tuesday into early Wednesday.

- Additional chances for storms Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Early this morning, water vapor satellite and RAP analysis show
zonal flow across the central plains with an embedded subtle mid to
upper trough exiting the Rockies and entering the High Plains. This
feature is going to be the catalyst for the development of showers
and storms along with possibility of a wintry mix across portions of
central, northern, and northeast Kansas.

As the aforementioned system approaches from over the Rockies later
today, above the shallow cold air mass, widespread mid-level WAA
will overspread much of the eastern half of Kansas. As a result,
scattered elevated showers will develop across portions of central
and south-central Kansas early this afternoon and quickly progress
northeastward. Around 100-300 J/kg of elevated instability will
support the possibility of a few embedded thunderstorms.
Additionally, given very cold temperatures aloft, very small hail or
sleet is also possible, especially across central Kansas where
surface temps will be closer to the freezing mark. As mid-level WAA
shifts eastward this evening, chances for sleet, rain, and storms
will shift eastward with it. However, short term guidance continues
to be insistent on the low-levels being saturated with very subtle
low-level isentropic ascent overspreading the area, particularly
during the morning hours on Monday. This should generally support at
least patchy drizzle across much of the forecast area tonight into
Monday morning. Wet-bulb temperatures are forecast to be hovering
either at, or just below, the freezing mark along the I-70 corridor.
This will be crucial as to whether or not freezing drizzle occurs
across central Kansas, and whether elevated surfaces develop slick
and icy spots tonight into Monday morning. Fortunately, the
potential for a more widespread glaze of ice across central Kansas
will be mitigated by warm ground temperatures from recent near-
record warmth along with freezing temperatures being on the marginal
side. That being said, if drizzle occurs with temperatures in the
20s, the potential for travel impacts will increase dramatically
late tonight into Monday morning.

Coverage in precipitation during the day on Monday should remain
isolated, and with temperatures forecast to warm well-above
freezing, any precipitation that falls will be all rain. However,
periodic chances for showers will steadily increase and persist
Monday night through the end of the work week as an active pattern
settles in across the central plains. Mid-range deterministic and
ensemble guidance has consistently signaled a couple of rounds of
showers and storms beginning late Monday night and lasting into at
least Wednesday morning, if not later. This guidance is also
suggesting the potential for a couple of strong storms Tuesday
evening or night along the slowly advancing cold front. Modest
instability around 1000 J/kg and effective shear around 55 to 65
knots will support the potential for organized convection, and a few
strong storms producing small hail and gusty winds cannot be ruled
out Tuesday evening and night. Additionally, PWATs are likely to be
well above 1 inch ahead of the advancing frontal boundary supporting
the potential for efficient and heavy rainfall with any storm that
develops.

Additional storm chances have been noted for Thursday and Friday
with guidance being split on exactly what will occur towards the end
of the week. Some solutions, like the deterministic GFS, are much
more aggressive with the return of ample low-level moisture
overspreading the eastern half of Kansas ahead of a more progressive
system. This would generally support the potential for scattered
storms Thursday afternoon and night, some of which could be strong
or marginally severe. However, more solutions, like the ECMWF, are
much more conservative with moisture return ahead of a slower
system. This would keep the potential for storms delayed until
Friday, but the possibility of strong to marginally severe storms
would still be a concern. There are a number of details still to
work out over the coming days, so stay tuned for updates to the
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1158 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Aviation concerns will be storms through the afternoon with
sleet potential over central KS and freezing drizzle late
tonight into Mon morning.

Storms quickly developed late this morning as 850-700mb theta-e
advection ramped-up. They will continue to track off to the
northeast with KSLN and KCNU having the best chance to see a
storm. Some small hail or sleet will be possible with the
stronger storms. For tonight, low levels are still expected to
saturate with some pockets of fog or drizzle/freezing drizzle
possible along with IFR/LIFR cigs. Locations generally north of
Highway 50 will have the best chance to see some freezing
drizzle late tonight into Mon morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 355 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Marginal very high grassland fire danger is forecast both
Tuesday afternoon and Thursday afternoon due to warm and breezy
conditions. However, rainfall and more ample moisture will
dampen fire weather concerns.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...JC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1209 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-021015-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
1209 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Scattered storms will be possible this afternoon with the stronger
storms producing dime to quarter size hail.

Across portions of central Kansas, a mix of rain and sleet may be
possible into the early evening. Sleet accumulations are not
anticipated.

Later tonight, patchy freezing drizzle will be possible across
central Kansas. This may result in a few slick spots, mainly on
elevated surfaces like bridges and overpasses.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

A few storms are possible Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday. A
couple strong storms cannot be ruled out.

Additional storm chances are forecast Thursday through Saturday.

Very high grassland fire danger is forecast both Tuesday and
Thursday afternoons. However, rainfall and more moisture should
dampen fire weather potential.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1138 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

KSZ092-093-011830-
Cowley KS-Sumner KS-
1138 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL COWLEY AND EAST CENTRAL
SUMNER COUNTIES THROUGH 1230 PM CST...

At 1138 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles southeast of Oxford, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Winfield, Oxford, Burden, Atlanta, Cambridge, Winfield City Lake, and
Strother Field Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3709 9713 3730 9724 3747 9676 3736 9654
TIME...MOT...LOC 1738Z 232DEG 29KT 3720 9710

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

LAWSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1149 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

KSZ092-011830-
Sumner KS-
1149 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN SUMNER COUNTY
THROUGH 1230 PM CST...

At 1149 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Wellington, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Wellington, Belle Plaine, Oxford, and Wellington Airport.

This includes Interstate 35 between Mile Markers 14 and 27.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3718 9748 3730 9754 3746 9716 3720 9716
TIME...MOT...LOC 1749Z 230DEG 26KT 3728 9742

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

LAWSON

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1219 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

KSZ051-052-011900-
McPherson KS-Marion KS-
1219 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MCPHERSON AND
SOUTHWESTERN MARION COUNTIES THROUGH 100 PM CST...

At 1218 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Goessel, or 7 miles northeast of Moundridge, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hillsboro, Goessel, Lehigh, and Marion Lake.

This includes Interstate 135 between Mile Markers 44 and 45.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3818 9748 3832 9751 3844 9704 3820 9708
TIME...MOT...LOC 1818Z 254DEG 23KT 3826 9740

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

LAWSON