Severe Thunderstorm Warning 268, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1229 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Numerous storms likely across southeast Kansas this afternoon
  and early evening.

- Seasonable temperatures and drier conditions likely on Friday.

- Another round of strong to severe storms possible on Saturday.

- Below average temperatures and mostly dry conditions Sun-Mon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1153 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

A cold front was bisecting central and south central Kansas late
this morning and this front will continue moving south and east
today. Considerable capping early in the day is progged to erode by
19Z with rapid thunderstorm development anticipated shortly
thereafter. Storms are expected to initiate over the Flint Hills
while quickly spreading into southeast Kansas by 20-21Z. Moderate to
extreme buoyancy is progged once again with mid 70
dewpoints/relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and deep layer
shear around 30 knots. Severe storms with damaging winds are
expected to be the primary concern although some large hail may be
possible early in the process. We continue to see strong support for
linear mode along the surging frontal boundary. The most robust
activity may clear the area by 00Z or shortly thereafter before a
stable post-frontal regime overspreads the area. Heavy rain will be
likely over southeast Kansas as the prefrontal airmass remains in
the high PWAT axis, but due to the short duration of the storms,
widespread flooding impacts are not anticipated.

A tranquil day is anticipated on Friday as the front forces the hot,
humid airmass just south of the area briefly. Seasonable
temperatures are anticipated with highs in the 80s while we see a
break from the higher humidity. As we move into Friday night, a
subtle disturbance emerging from the Rockies may allow for some deep
moist convection across the High Plains. As the nocturnal LLJ ramps
up, we may see this activity propagate eastward across Kansas
through the overnight and early morning hours with continued mid-
level waa. There remains some uncertainty in how long this activity
will linger. We may also see other elevated storms develop along the
nose of the LLJ in parts of central and south central KS during the
predawn hours on Saturday. Elevated CAPE/shear would support some
large hail with any storms that develop during the predawn hours.
Some of this activity could linger into Saturday morning which could
impact the evolution of storms on Saturday afternoon and evening.

Sat...another cold front is progged to sag southward during the
afternoon hours on Saturday. If the airmass can recover from morning
convection, we could see the potential for strong and severe storms
developing as we remain on the southern fringe of the strong belt of
mid-level flow with deep layer shear around 40-50 knots. Areas
across southern Kansas may be favored based on how quickly the
frontal boundary progresses. The focus for more robust deep moist
convection should move south of the area on Saturday night.

Sunday-Monday..Sunday is shaping up to be another nice day as we
are now expected to be in a stable post-frontal regime. The current
forecast has some low POPs lingering Sat night into Sunday but
confidence in dry conditions returning on Sunday has increased
considerably over the past 24-hrs. Seasonably cool conditions are
anticipated with highs topping out in the 70s. Another day with
below average temperatures is anticipated on Monday, although a
subtle shortwave trough emerging from the Rockies could bring some
low potential for showers and storms to the area. We are expecting
to see highs in the upper 70s/around 80 on Monday.

Tue-Thu...We continue to see support for a northwest mid/upper flow
regime through much of next week. Often in this scenario we could
see more subtle shortwave troughs emerging from the Rockies bringing
isolated or widely scattered storms from time-to-time but confidence
in more widespread activity remains low at this time. More
seasonable temperatures will return on Tuesday with hot
and humid conditions arriving by the middle of the week with highs
in the 90s and low mostly in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

A cold front will continue moving south and east across the area
today shifting winds to the north at 25 to 35 knots. A broken
line of storms is expected to develop across southeast Kansas
along this front after 20Z impacting the CNU terminal where we
could see MVFR/IFR briefly before the activity shifts south and
east of the area. Winds will diminish this evening becoming
light while VFR prevails across the area.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...MWM

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