Severe Thunderstorm Warning 232, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1212 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across central KS
this morning with additional chances area-wide this afternoon

- Active weather pattern into early next week; widespread severe
weather is not anticipated

- Seasonal temperatures over the next week with highs in the
  80s/90s

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

As of 2 AM Thursday morning, an expansive midlevel ridge remains
across the eastern CONUS with troughing from the Baja region through
central high Plains. A midlevel shortwave trough was located from
the TX Panhandle through west-central KS. This feature continues to
result in numerous showers and thunderstorms from the TX Panhandle
through eastern NE. Thus far, the bulk of rain showers and
thunderstorms have remained west of I-135. This is likely to be case
for the remainder of the nighttime hours. While severe weather is
not anticipated, PW values up to 1.6" will support heavy rainfall.

The aforementioned midlevel shortwave trough is progged to slowly
lift across western KS and into NE throughout the day today. The
lack of mixed-layer inhibition combined with the large scale ascent
should result in another afternoon of scattered thunderstorms with
the greatest coverage across central KS. HREF mean surface based
instability is forecast to approach 2000 J/kg across portions of
central and south-central KS this afternoon. Midlevel winds remain
quite weak (generally 25-30 kt) but sufficient veering will produce
effective shear values up to 30 kt. As such, a few thunderstorms
will have the potential to produce hail up to quarter size, wind
gusts up to 60 mph, and heavy rainfall.

Much of Friday is expected to remain dry as midlevel heights
gradually increase. A northern stream shortwave trough will traverse
the northern Plains Friday afternoon/evening. This will shunt a weak
surface trough axis into northern KS by late afternoon. Increasing
convergence along the front is likely result in thunderstorm
development from portions of northern KS into NE/IA. Surface dew
points near 70 across portions of central/northern KS will overlap
midlevel lapse rates of 8-8.5 C/km, resulting in 3000-4000 J/kg of
MLCAPE Friday evening. Weak midlevel flow will limit effective shear
to 20-30 kt. This overlap of instability, shear, and high PW
environment will support hail up to golf ball size, damaging winds
up to 60 mph, and heavy rainfall. The potential for an isolated
severe storm or two is mainly confined to areas along/north of I-
70.

The greatest potential for widespread rainfall appears to arrive
late Saturday through Sunday night as a slow moving shortwave trough
glides from the southern high Plains through central and eastern KS.
There remains some discrepancy with the exact track of the shortwave
trough with the ECMWF lifting the trough from the TX Panhandle into
west-central KS. The GFS/NAM have an eastern track and lift
shortwave trough across eastern KS. This eastern track would confine
the best rain chances to southeast KS. Model trends will need to be
monitored over the next 24-36 hours. On the heels of the shortwave
trough passage Sunday, a surface trough axis will deepen across the
central/northern high Plains as a northern stream shortwave trough
traverses the northern Rockies. Thunderstorms are likely to develop
across northeast CO/southeast WY/western NE Sunday afternoon. A
strengthening LLJ (30-40 kt) may allow for convection to grow
upscale into an MCS Sunday evening and propagate east or southeast
along an instability. There remains model spread where this
instability gradient will develop and currently ranges from west-
central NE through southeast NE (GFS) to southwest NE through east-
central KS (ECMWF). Certainly something to keep an eye on over the
coming days. A similar scenario may evolve late Monday into Tuesday
with high Plains convection spreading east/southeast into the
nighttime hours. Rain chances will begin to decrease towards the
middle of next week as the midlevel ridge amplifies across the
central Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Cigs trended lower through the morning than forecasted, so have
translated that into the TAFs with this update. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms that tracked across portions of central KS this
morning have generally moved out of the area. As instability
increases and convective inhibition decreases after 18Z, expect
isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop across central KS.
Probabilities remain low, so have continued with PROB30 groups
through around 00Z for most sites. Note that some weak
convection is already initiating along a line from KICT to KSLN
as of 17Z/Thursday.

Convection will generally wane after 00Z, with skies becoming SCT at
mid levels overnight. Diurnal southerly winds increase around
14Z/Friday.

Across southeast KS, including KCNU, low clouds and some
spotty showers are possible (20% chance) after around 09Z through
much of the rest of the period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...CFH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1208 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-050830-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
1208 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
east central Kansas, south central Kansas and southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated to scattered storms will be possible this afternoon, mainly
across central and south central Kansas. The stronger storms will be
capable of hail up to nickel size, 50 to 60 mph downburst winds
along with heavy rainfall. A few of these storms may linger into the
early evening hour across the Flint Hills.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Scattered thunderstorms are possible Friday evening for areas mainly
along and north of I-70. Thunderstorm chances will increase for
Saturday night through Sunday. The main hazards through this time
frame will be heavy rainfall and downburst winds.

Additional thunderstorm chances will return late Sunday night into
Monday morning and again late Monday night into Tuesday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict

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