Severe Thunderstorm Warning 221, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
612 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated severe storms possible this afternoon and evening,
  mainly along/east of I-135

- Additional thunderstorms are possible each day next week

- Seasonal temperatures over the next week with highs in the
  80s to near 90

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Currently, an elongated, weak mid/upper level trough extends across
the Northern Rockies into the Northern High Plains with ridging
building in across the southern tier of the CONUS. At the surface, a
weak trough is situated across western Kansas. Visible satellite
indicates numerous lingering outflow boundaries draped across the
central and eastern portions of the state from overnight convection.
The moist airmass remains in place, primarily across eastern Kansas
where PWATs between 1-1.5" have been observed this morning. As we
progress into this afternoon, a sharpening dryline is expected
across south-central Kansas into north-central Oklahoma that could
initiate afternoon and evening convection once again. Confidence
remains low as the ridge to the south begins to build in over the
region, leading to increasing heights and weakening overall ascent
over the region. Decent instability and sufficient shear would
support isolated storms should they manage to develop. Current
guidance indicates development along and east of I-135 with activity
pushing east through the night.

For Monday, a Slight Risk for severe storms returns for central
Kansas. A low pressure will develop over the Central High Plains
leading to easterly/southeasterly flow. This will support increased
moisture and upslope flow across eastern CO/western Kansas. Storm
development is anticipated during the afternoon hours across the
High Plains. Storms will eventually congeal into a multicellular MCS
that will march east-southeastward towards central Kansas during the
late evening and overnight hours. Large hail and strong winds will
be the main threats across central Kansas for late Monday
night/early Tuesday morning.

Then through the end of the week, a mid/upper level ridge will
continue to build in over the region with the forecast area
remaining just north of the ridge axis. This will lead seasonably
warm temperatures (middle 80s to lower 90s), and an overall less
supportive environment for more potent convection due to synoptic
scale subsidence. However, due to the positioning of the upper-level
flow, and given the buoyant lower-level airmass, some diurnally
driven showers and storms look to develop each afternoon/evening.
The potential for widespread severe weather remains low at this
time. Confidence remains low on exact location and intensity of any
convection for Tuesday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 611 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Light and variable winds are expected in central and south central
KS through the overnight hours behind a slow-moving dryline
progressing through the area. There remains a slight (20-30%) chance
for showers and storms to develop along this boundary and impact CNU
later this evening, so maintained the PROB30 group there for this
issuance with a minor adjustment in timing.

Short-term model soundings and HREF probabilities highlight the
potential for patchy fog across portions of central and south
central KS late tonight into early Monday morning. As such, expanded
IFR/LIFR impacts to HUT with this cycle but kept ICT out for now. This
may change as additional observations become available. Expect vsbys
to dissipate by mid morning and give way to mostly clear skies and
VFR conditions areawide.

Easterly winds are forecast through the daytime hours across central
and south central KS, while northerly winds prevail across southeast
KS. Sustained speeds at/above 10 kts and gusts to 22 kts are
expected, with the strongest winds in central KS.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...JWK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
750 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-020100-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
750 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
east central Kansas, south central Kansas and southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are are possible through the evening hours, primarily
along and east of Interstate 135. The strongest thunderstorms may
produce hail up to tennis ball size, wind gusts up to 70 mph, a
tornado or two, and heavy rainfall.

Patchy fog is expected to develop across portions of central and
south central Kansas late tonight. Visibility less than 1 mile is
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Patchy fog will continue across portions of central Kansas through
8 AM on Monday morning. Visibility less than 1 mile is possible.

Additional thunderstorms are possible Sunday through Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita KS
846 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0838 PM     Hail             10 S Saffordville       38.24N 96.40W
05/31/2026  E1.25 Inch       Chase              KS   Public

            Report from mPING: Half Dollar (1.25 in.).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita KS
946 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0943 PM     Tornado          2 NW Madison            38.15N 96.16W
05/31/2026                   Greenwood          KS   Public

            Report received via image from social media.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1040 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1031 PM     Hail             5 W Gridley             38.11N 95.96W
05/31/2026  E1.75 Inch       Greenwood          KS   Public

            Report from mPING.

&&