Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Wichita, KS

386 
WWUS53 KICT 140044
SVSICT

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
644 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

KSC001-205-207-140054-
/O.CAN.KICT.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-260214T0115Z/
Wilson KS-Woodson KS-Allen KS-
644 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN WILSON...
SOUTHEASTERN WOODSON AND SOUTHWESTERN ALLEN COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However, small hail is
still possible with this thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3773 9544 3773 9552 3769 9553 3760 9571
      3769 9578 3791 9555 3776 9538
TIME...MOT...LOC 0043Z 233DEG 20KT 3776 9558 

$$

JAKUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
602 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A handful of strong to severe thunderstorms with nickel to
  quarter sized hail possible this evening into tonight,
  primarily across southern KS.

- Widespread rain begins this evening and lasts through
  Saturday. Locally heavy rainfall may result in flooding
  concerns, especially in southeast KS.

- Warm and dry conditions resume Sunday and last through next
  week. Extreme fire danger is expected across central KS on
  Tuesday, with very high fire danger expected across the
  remainder of the area Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 109 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis early this afternoon depict a
lifting mid/upper trough situated over the Desert Southwest with the
associated speed max entering the Southern Rockies. Surface analysis
indicates a warm/stationary front stretching southeast from the TX
Panhandle into the Red River Valley.

The warm front is progged to track north/northeast through the
evening and overnight hours as mid/upper forcing moves into the
Southern Plains. Isentropic ascent ahead of this feature will work
in concert with low-level moisture transport to produce widespread
elevated showers across south central and southeast KS late tonight
into Saturday morning. Additionally, RAP/NAM point soundings across
south central KS continue to indicate elevated instability in the
500-1000 J/kg range this evening and tonight, which will support a
few embedded thunderstorms. Per the prior discussion, elevated
hodographs indicate slight veering and 30-40 kts of effective shear
which will support the potential for nickel to even quarter sized
hail this evening and tonight, primarily across southern KS.

Perhaps the biggest story of this evening heading into Saturday will
be the arrival of an anomalously-moist airmass. NAEFS/ENS ensembles
highlight PWs in the 1-1.25" range which will be very near (or even
exceed) climatological maxes for this time of year. This will allow
for efficient rainfall as showers and storms make their way through
the region, especially across southeast KS where models are in best
agreement for localized flooding concerns as seen in the EFI. HREF
probabilities of at least an inch of rain through Saturday sit at 70-
90% along and southeast of the Kansas Turnpike with areas primarily
along/east of I-135 in the 50-75% range. Probabilities for at least
2 inches of rain lie in the 40-70% in a line from roughly Winfield
to Iola with even higher probabilities to the east. Rain will come
to an end from west to east Saturday evening into early Sunday
morning as mid/upper forcing shifts eastward.

Dry weather will resume Sunday as the upper ridge slides eastward
over the Plains. Increasing thicknesses will allow for mild
temperatures (highs in the 60s and 70s) throughout the area through
at least mid week. A mid/upper wave may try to bring a cold front
through the area on Thursday which would allow for the return of
more seasonable temperatures to end the week, but uncertainty is
high at this time range.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 535 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage
this evening and especially overnight. The greatest coverage is
expected to occur between 04-10Z. A few of these storms may even
produce hail upwards of quarter size. CIGS will also lower
throughout the overnight to IFR or even LIFR. After a brief
decrease in shower/storm coverage during the early morning
hours of Saturday, coverage will increase from northwest to
southeast during the morning and early afternoon hours. CIGS
will increase and precipitation will diminish from northwest to
southeast during the afternoon/early evening hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 109 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

A combination of warm temperatures, low RH values, and windy
conditions are expected to result in extreme fire danger in central
KS on Tuesday. Very high fire danger is expected for the remainder
of the area on Tuesday, then again for the entire area on Wednesday
and Thursday.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...BRF
FIRE WEATHER...JWK/MWM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
321 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-142130-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
321 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue across portions of
south central and southeast Kansas this afternoon. Showers with
embedded thunderstorms will increase in coverage across southern
Kansas this evening and tonight. The strongest activity may produce
nickel to quarter sized hail and locally heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Showers will linger over much of the area on Saturday with locally
heavy rain possible across mainly southeast Kansas.

Above average temperatures and gusty southerly winds will result in
extreme grassland fire danger on Tuesday across central Kansas,
with very high grassland fire danger in south central and southeast
Kansas. Very high grassland fire danger is expected areawide on
Wednesday and Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict