Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1253 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms expected this afternoon into
  the overnight hours. Large to very large hail, damaging winds,
  tornadoes, and heavy rainfall are all possible.

- Cooler weather begins Tuesday, with highs in the 60s and low
  70s through at least Thursday.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms return Wednesday night
  into the weekend. Widespread severe weather is not expected at
  this time, but could see a few strong to severe storms toward
  the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis depict a potent
mid/upper trough ejecting out of the Rockies into the Central
Plains. Surface analysis early this afternoon depicts a stalled
quasi-cold front spanning from north central KS south/southwest into
the OK Panhandle, while a surface low pressure resides near KGBD.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon along the stalled front. With mixed-layer CAPE in excess
of 3000 J/kg and 35-45 kts of deep-layer shear, storms should grow
severe rather quickly, especially early on prior to storm
interactions. As prior discussions have mentioned, mostly boundary-
parallel shear will promote a messy linear mode with embedded
supercell structures. Given the environment, however, initial
development will likely be discrete/semi-discrete and supercellular
in nature. This will allow for large to very large hail, damaging
winds, and a few tornadoes. We could also see a few landspout
tornadoes primarily across central KS given the slow-moving nature
of the boundary. The timing for these higher end severe threats
appears to be through 8 PM. In addition to these threats, heavy rain
arising from training storms may result in flooding concerns,
especially in central KS where soils have already been saturated
from yesterday's heavy rainfall.

As the aforementioned trough continues to eject to the northeast
into the Northern Plains this evening, the cold front will pick up
speed and progress to the southeast. As this morning's discussion
highlighted, this will likely decrease the threat for very large
hail and supercell/landspout tornadoes with the growth transitioning
into a mostly linear mode. This transition will promote more of a
wind threat, but could still see large hail with this activity given
the ample instability continuing into the overnight hours. Also
can't rule out a few tornadic circulations within the line due to
the strong low-level shear/SRH, but this threat should remain low
relative to this afternoon's chances.

Storm chances will largely exit the region with the departure of the
cold front, though far southeast KS could see some lingering showers
and storms through the day on Tuesday.  Cooler temperatures are
forecast throughout the area as well, with the post-frontal airmass
promoting afternoon highs in the 60s and 70s through at least
Thursday. With the right entrance region of the upper jet progged to
linger across the Central/Northern Plains, chances for showers and
storms are expected to arrive Wednesday night and last into the
weekend. At this point, it appears that Friday will hold the next
potential for strong to severe storms given the return of
instability and reasonable deep-layer shear. Details this far out
are quite uncertain, though widespread severe weather appears
unlikely to this point. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

A frontal boundary was stalled over central Kansas and expecting
severe storms to develop after 19Z along the front. The storms
will then migrate slowly southward for the rest of the
afternoon into tonight. Gusty south winds will persist until the
cold front passes through. Low clouds will begin to fill in
behind the front along with increasing north winds. A line of
showers and storms will push southward into south central Kansas
around 8pm then shift east of the Kansas turnpike after 11pm.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ051>053-
067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...CDJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1258 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-191800-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
1258 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
east central Kansas, south central Kansas and southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to redevelop this
afternoon over central Kansas. Some of the storms will quickly
become severe and could produce significant severe weather. The
stronger storms will be capable of producing damaging winds around
70 mph, up to baseball size hail, tornadoes, and heavy rainfall. A
few strong tornadoes are possible. Storms should congeal into a
line of storms and travel slowly southeast later this evening. Once
this happens the risk of severe weather will begin to decrease
through the late night hours. The primary risk will then transition
to mainly damaging winds and heavy rainfall.

Strong south winds gusting up to 45 mph will affect portions of
central, south central, and southeast Kansas today. A wind advisory
is in effect until 10 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Additional off-and-on chances for showers and thunderstorms are
possible Tuesday through week's end, but widespread severe weather
is not expected with this activity.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this afternoon and evening.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict

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