Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1247 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few strong to severe storms could spread northward into far
  southeast Kansas for late this morning-mid afternoon

- Cooler than normal temperatures for Wednesday-Friday with a chance
of light rain showers on Thursday

- Warmer temperatures return for the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Current surface analysis shows stalled out frontal boundary near the
Red River region with very rich gulf moisture along and south of the
boundary. Meanwhile satellite imagery shows upper level wave near
the 4 corners region and a second wave over southern Idaho. Both of
these waves will continue to move east across the Rockies and phase
together across Nebraska today. This will cause the stalled out
frontal boundary to lift northward across Oklahoma as a warm
front. Already seeing signals of elevated moisture transport
spreading north of the surface front on satellite low-level
water vapor imagery early this morning across west Texas
into southwest Oklahoma. This signal will translate northeast
and cause elevated storms to blossom over central Oklahoma this
morning. A few storms could possibly expand further north into
parts of far southeast Kansas by late this morning through mid
afternoon where CAM model trends are highlighting. The elevated
environment would become favorable for strong to severe storms
to materialize given steep mid-level lapse rates, MUCAPE
1000-2000j/kg, and 1-6km bulk shear around 50kts in the
vicinity. The primary hazard would be large hail of quarter to
possible golf ball size in this type of environment. Additional
rain showers are possible over central Kansas just ahead of the
upper wave which will be further removed from the better quality
moisture. Dry weather will prevail for tonight and Wednesday as
subsidence overspreads the region in the wake of today's upper
level wave.

Thursday-Monday

Models continue to show a second upper level wave dropping southward
across the northern plains inducing mid-level lift over western
Kansas on Thursday. This will generate mainly rain showers with a
few embedded weak storms possible. Some of this activity could
venture eastward into central Kansas on Thursday. Severe weather is
not expected due to very low elevated instability and poor mid-level
lapse rates. Weather pattern looks to remain dry for Friday into the
weekend along with temperatures warming each day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Some MVFR ceilings are lingering over parts of central and parts
of southeast Kansas. Elevated storms are also tracking into
southeast Kansas but this activity is expected to remain south
and east of the Chanute terminal, mainly impacting Labette
county or areas along and southeast of a line from Coffeyville
to Altamont to Labette. The storm activity is expected to exit
the area by mid-afternoon with VFR prevailing thereafter. Light
northeast winds will prevail through the period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...MWM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1224 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-291730-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
1224 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A few strong to severe storms are possible across far southeast
Kansas early this afternoon. The main hazard from the stronger
storms would be quarter to possible golf ball size hail.

Patchy frost is possible for late tonight over central Kansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Patchy frost is possible Wednesday morning over central Kansas.

More thunderstorm chances are in the forecast for Thursday, however
the risk for severe weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated this afternoon or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1009 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0654 PM     Tornado          4 W Sycamore            37.33N 95.79W
04/26/2026                   Montgomery         KS   Public

            Delayed report of a tornado. Photo of a
            tornado west of Sycamore from social media.

&&

MWM

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