Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
135 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An isolated strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out across
  southeast Kansas this afternoon.

- Low rain chances both Tuesday and Thursday; however, no
  severe weather is expected.

- Below average temperatures expected for much of the week,
  then a warming trend is forecast heading into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 131 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Early this afternoon, a vigorous shortwave trough was rapidly
progressing northeastward across the central plains and into the
Mississippi River Valley. At the surface, a cold front was draped
across the Flint Hills and steadily moving eastward this afternoon.
There's about 3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of this frontal
boundary, mainly across southeast Kansas. However, this robust
environment for thunderstorms should be shifting eastward into
Missouri keeping thunderstorm chances mainly east of the forecast
area. Still, visible satellite shows some agitated cu along the cold
front, so an isolated storm or two cannot be ruled out across
southeast Kansas this afternoon and evening before the front finally
pushes through the area. If a storm does develop, the primary risks
would be up to quarter size hail, up to 60 mph wind gusts, and brief
heavy rainfall. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated.
Tonight, a post-frontal airmass will set in across the region, and
lows in the 30s and 40s are expected. North winds remaining somewhat
breezy should prevent the risk of frost across central Kansas
despite temperatures in the mid 30s Tuesday morning.

Another shortwave trough will pass over the area on Tuesday, but
much of the forecast area will be goal posted by areas of ascent
both to the north and south. Still, a few showers cannot be ruled
out north of I-70 and across far southeast Kansas Tuesday afternoon
and evening. Wednesday will be relatively quiet and cool with
afternoon highs remaining in the 60s and overnight lows generally in
the 40s. Another system will move it's way across the southern and
central plains on Thursday bringing another chance for rainfall,
mainly along and west of I-135. Initially, this may sound good for
many locations across this area that have missed out on recent
rainfall. However, as of right now, the heavier rainfall looks to
remain out across western Kansas, and any rain that does fall across
the ICT CWA will be on the lighter side. Some isolated showers could
linger across southern Kansas through Friday, but again, rainfall
will not amount to much. On the positive side of things, no
severe weather is expected with any activity that occurs Tuesday
through Friday.

A warming trend is forecast going into the weekend with afternoon
highs rising up into the 70s on Saturday, and potentially the 80s
for Sunday and Monday. This warming trend will also feature fairly
quiet conditions across the central plains with little to no
impactful weather expected through next Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

VFR conditions have returned at all sites except CNU and SLN.
These VFR conditions should return to CNU and SLN within the
next 1-2 hours. A weak cold front continues to move across the
region, shifting winds from the northwest at 10-20 kt. Winds
will further shift from the north or northeast after 00Z this
evening with speeds remaining at 10-20 kt. In addition, MVFR
CIGS may return at all sites but confidence is too low for
introduction at this time.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...BRF

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