Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
639 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is potential for significant severe weather to occur
  later today/tonight

- Near normal temperatures and dry weather for Monday-Wednesday
  followed by next chance of rain Wednesday night into Thursday,
  chances for severe weather will remain low this upcoming week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Current satellite water vapor imagery shows a healthy upper level
wave over southern California. This system will track east/northeast
across the Rockies and eject out into western Kansas by late
evening. Surface cold front was currently positioned from Marion to
Anthony southwest into the Texas panhandle. The cold front will sag
a little bit further south then stall out this morning with very
cool temperatures behind the front. This cool airmass will be
difficult to mix out especially with richer low-level moisture
streaming northward keeping low clouds entrenched over much of the
area throughout the day. There is a signal for elevated storms
trying to develop over northwest Kansas and possibly affect
central/south central Kansas this morning. Large hail would be main
risk from this elevated activity as it moves northeast.

Model soundings continue to support deep low level saturation which
favors possible prolonged period of drizzle over parts of
central/south central Kansas which would keep MLCIN values higher
today. This is a highly conditional environment due to lingering low
cloud effects and later arrival time of upper level wave. The
key things to watch will be if any clearing can occur across
southern Kansas, and timing/positioning of surface warm front as
it advances slowly northward across Oklahoma today. High-res
models show the warm front not reaching southern Kansas until
later this evening. The kinematics from model hodographs for
wind shear(over 50kts 0-6km bulk shear, very high 0-1km SRH)
combined with thermodynamics are quite favorable for supercells
to produce significant severe weather(a few strong tornadoes,
very large hail, and damaging winds) for areas close to the warm
front. At this time, the best chance for surface based storms
look to initiate along the dry line/triple point over southwest
Kansas into the Texas panhandle. This activity would then race
northeast this evening and could potentially remain surface
based across parts of south central later this evening where
high-res models show decent 0-3km CAPE in conjuncture with warm
front advancing northward. In addition, elevated supercells
north of the warm front will also pose a threat for very large
hail later this evening, and that looks to affect mainly central
Kansas or locations further north.

Monday-Saturday

Medium range models continue to advertise a weather pattern change
for this period with the richer low-level Gulf moisture remaining
south of Kansas. Therefore confidence is high that severe weather
chances will be low for over central/southern Kansas. Daytime highs
will be near normal with a slight cool down expected for Thursday-
Friday.

A upper level wave will shift east of Kansas during the day on
Monday with drier and cooler air overspreading central/eastern
Kansas. In the wake of the Monday system, the upper level pattern
transitions into a zonal flow regime for the upcoming week across
the central plains. Models in good agreement showing another upper
level wave racing east across the region during the day on Tuesday.
Precipitation chances will be confined to locations south of Kansas
where the richer low-level gulf moisture resides. Dry conditions
continue for Wednesday, however models show elevated moisture return
which looks to generate elevated showers/weak thunderstorms late
Wednesday night into Thursday over Kansas. Not expecting severe
weather given low end instability. Cooler than normal temperatures
look to prevail for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Poor aviation conditions expected across central/south central
Kansas with LIFR cigs and periods of drizzle restricting
visibilities. Meanwhile elevated showers and storms could move
across central Kansas this morning and early afternoon. The low
clouds will continue linger over the and could rise into IFR
category with occasional drizzle persisting. More storms
possible tonight along with low cigs.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...CDJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1149 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-271700-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
1149 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Patchy fog is possible into this afternoon across portions of
central and south central Kansas.

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible early this afternoon
across parts of central and south central Kansas. A few strong to
severe storms are possible with large hail being the primary risk.
Some of the stronger storms could produce hail up to the size of
golf balls.

Meanwhile another round of thunderstorms is expected to develop
over southwest Kansas and the Texas panhandle late this afternoon
and evening. This activity will then move northeast and looks to
affect mainly central and south central Kansas after 8 PM or 9 PM.
There is some potential for significant severe weather; very large
hail around 2 inches in diameter, damaging winds up to 70 mph, and
a few tornadoes. A strong tornado is possible across mainly south
central Kansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

More thunderstorm chances are in the forecast from late Wednesday
night through Friday. Severe weather chances remain low for this
period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon into tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict

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