Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
647 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon through
  tonight with large hail as the primary hazard.

- Severe storms possible again on Sunday with potentially all
  hazards possible, though uncertainty continues to be high.

- Mostly dry conditions and mild temperatures are expected for Monday
  through Wednesday with possible rain chances returning late
  in the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Currently, an upper low continues to spin over Saskatchewan
with additional broad troughing extending into the Northern
Plains. An upper shortwave is over western Kansas and will
continue to shift east this afternoon and into tonight. At the
surface, a low is over western KS with a frontal boundary
extending from north central KS into eastern NE and then into
the Upper Mississippi Valley. An additional low is over parts of
western Oklahoma into Texas with a warm front over the OK/TX
border. In our area, cloud cover continues with a few showers
and storms ongoing in central/north-central KS due to 700mb WAA.
As we continue into later this afternoon and tonight, some
elevated storms are anticipated to develop across central and
south-central KS. Model guidance continues to suggest modest
instability with 30-40 kts of effective shear and steep mid-
level lapse rates. This would support large hail as the primary
threat with potentially severe wind gusts. Given this risk, a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for portions of
central and south- central KS. The LLJ is anticipated to stay
farther south in central Oklahoma which would reduce chances for
severe winds as we move into this evening. Activity is expected
to move east/southeast late this evening with storms likely
exiting our area a little after midnight.

Model guidance continues to hint at a deeper shortwave moving into
the area with the 500 mb jet nosing into central KS by Sunday
afternoon. Low-level moisture will increase on Sunday morning and
continue into the afternoon which may result in drizzle and low-
level clouds especially in southern KS. The warm front is progged to
set up in Oklahoma with 850-700 mb WAA ahead and along the front. If
low clouds and drizzle continue into the afternoon, this could
increase CIN and limit some storm chances. Additionally, recent
model guidance suggests the next upper shortwave will move into
western KS around 06z. However, a surface low looks to develop in
western KS along with a triple point which could serve as a focus
for storm initiation. Storms would then move east/northeast
likely into central/north-central KS. Better instability looks
possible for Sunday with up to 2500 J/kg across our area. This
combined with 50 kts of effective shear and steep mid-level
lapse rates would be efficient for severe storms. Large hail and
damaging winds would be the primary threats but a few tornadoes
cannot be ruled out though better chances would likely be
closer to the triple point. Guidance suggests that storms could
grow upscale into a cluster of storms moving through northern KS
which would transition more to a wind threat late Sunday night.
Uncertainty continues to remain high as severe storms and
coverage is highly conditional. Stay tuned for additional
forecast updates.

As we move into early next week, showers and storms could continue
into Monday morning in northern Kansas as the upper wave continues
to move east. Drier air is likely to move in on Monday afternoon and
continue into Wednesday, resulting in a break in active weather to
start the week. Mostly zonal flow aloft is progged to move in late
Monday night and continue through much of the work week. Shower and
storm chances may return to the forecast late in the work week as
upper shortwaves move into the region. Mild temperatures are
expected through much of the work week with most of the area
seeing high temperatures close to normal in the upper 60s and
70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 634 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

A line of thunderstorms stretches from near GBD to ICT to CFV
and points southeast. These storms have been capable of
producing hail up to around an inch in diameter, gusty and
erratic winds, as well as frequent lightning. These storms will
continue to slowly move to the east-southeast this evening
eventually diminishing late tonight. A cold front is also
sweeping down through central Kansas at this time which is
switching winds around to the north behind it. There is some
potential for this front to also generate a few additional
thunderstorms this evening although confidence is low in this
scenario. IFR to LIFR ceilings will blossom across central
Kansas and then south central Kansas late tonight into early
tomorrow morning and impact most of our TAF sites. These low
ceilings will be slow to dissipate and hang around most of the
morning and into the early afternoon but should slowly rise back
to IFR to MVFR ceilings in the afternoon. Additional
thunderstorms will be possible tomorrow evening especially for
locations across central Kansas but these should be just after
the end of this TAF period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...WI

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
350 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-262100-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
350 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A few strong to severe storms will be possible across the region
for late this afternoon through the late evening hours. The primary
risk from the stronger storms will be quarter to golf ball size
hail. Damaging winds around 60 mph is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Severe storms could impact the area again on Sunday afternoon and
Sunday night with potentially all hazards possible. There is a lot
of uncertainty for this period, therefore continue to check back for
updates as we refine the details for severe weather.

More thunderstorm chances are in the forecast from late Wednesday
night through Friday. Severe weather chances are low for this
period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight but reports of severe
weather are always appreciated.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita KS
620 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0617 PM     Hail             2 SE Maize              37.75N 97.44W
04/25/2026  E0.75 Inch       Sedgwick           KS   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Near 37th and Tyler in NW Wichita.

&&

ADK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita KS
626 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     Hail             3 WSW Wichita           37.73N 97.38W
04/25/2026  E0.75 Inch       Sedgwick           KS   Public

            Near 25th street north and I-235. Received
            via Facebook.

&&

ADK