River Flood Warning 53, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
237 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms late this afternoon
  through this evening, gradually exiting to the east-southeast
  later tonight. Severe weather, heavy rainfall, and flooding
  possible.

- Additional hit-or-miss thunderstorms possible Friday-Friday
  night, but widespread severe weather or heavy rainfall is not
  expected.

- Pattern change anticipated to start this weekend and last
  through most of next week. This will bring much hotter
  temperatures, mostly dry conditions, and gusty south winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...A cluster of showers and thunderstorms is
currently progressing east across central and eastern Kansas, ahead
of a mid-level impulse, and within a zone of modest 850-700mb warm
advection and moisture transport. This activity will be capable of
lower-end severe weather in the form of quarter size hail and 60 mph
winds, especially over far southern Kansas closer to the richer
instability. This activity should continue tracking east-
southeast into far southeast Kansas as we head into mid-late
afternoon.

Attention then turns to surface-based supercell potential later this
afternoon and into the evening, mainly over far southern Kansas and
northern Oklahoma, in the vicinity of a stalled outflow boundary.
Strong/fat instability coupled with decent deep layer shear and
weak/modest mid-level winds/shear should support a few HP supercells
and/or HP supercell clusters along/just north of the boundary,
capable of large hail and damaging winds. Additionally, impressive
low-level shear along/just north of the boundary along with decent
low-level buoyancy could favor a few tornadoes, some of which
could be strong. Storm motions look to be east to slightly
southeast. Based on observations trends, thinking north-central
and northwest OK have the greatest potential for these
supercells before about 8 PM, although it will be close for
southern portions of south-central KS. This activity should tend
to congeal into one or more thunderstorm clusters with time as
it moves east-southeast this evening.

Meanwhile further north, continued deep lift in vicinity of a
sharpening synoptic stationary front should support a gradual uptick
in scattered to numerous thunderstorm coverage later this afternoon
and evening, roughly along and either side of the Highway 56
corridor, with storm motions to the east-southeast. This activity
should be mostly elevated in nature, so the primary threats will be
large hail and perhaps some straight-line damaging winds with any
bowing segments. This activity looks to exit far southeast Kansas by
late tonight.

These two areas of thunderstorms this afternoon, evening, and
tonight coupled with very rich precipitable waters should support
pockets of very heavy rainfall, especially along/south of roughly
the Highway 56 corridor. Based on some of the latest CAM guidance,
wouldn't be surprised to see localized 3-5+ inch rainfall amounts,
especially where storms train over the same areas. Amounts like this
would favor flood/flash flood concerns, especially given the very
wet soils across the region. Hence, will continue the flood watch
areawide through tonight.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...Could have a few lingering
showers/thunderstorms across far southeast and southern Kansas
Friday in vicinity of the old frontal zone, with additional activity
possible late Friday night generally west of I-135. In all
instances, widespread severe weather or heavy rainfall is not
expected.

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...Building upper ridging will support a
pattern change, with mostly dry weather prevailing Saturday through
next week.

TEMPERATURES/WIND:

A building upper ridge will support a pattern change, with
increasing heat/humidity Saturday through next week. Given the
progged dewpoints and low-level thickness values, thinking a
prolonged period of 100-105+ degree heat indices are likely. We will
be monitoring for any possible heat advisories or excessive heat
warnings. Additionally, persistent lee troughing will support a
prolonged period of breezy/gusty south winds Saturday through next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Challenging aviation forecast the next 12 hours, with several
hazards in play across central, south-central, and southeast
Kansas.

SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...A large area of rain with embedded
thunderstorms will continue to advance east across central and
eventually into eastern Kansas by early to mid-afternoon. The
greatest potential for thunderstorms will be mainly over south-
central and southeast Kansas. Once this area of rain/storms
moves east, there may be a couple hour lull before additional
thunderstorms develop further west and move into central and
eastern Kansas later this afternoon and especially this evening.
Covered this threat with PROB30 groups for now, although later
shifts will likely need to insert TEMPO groups for TSRA.
Thinking the brunt of this activity will exit to the east later
tonight.

LOW CLOUDS...Patchy MVFR and IFR conditions are likely
in/around showers and thunderstorms through later tonight.
Additionally, more widespread low clouds (MVFR to possibly IFR)
should gradually fill in from the north this evening through
tonight, and persisting into at least Friday morning.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Friday morning for KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ADK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1118 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-261630-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
1118 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
east central Kansas, south central Kansas and southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will impact central
and southern Kansas through mid-afternoon. The strongest activity
over south-central and southeast Kansas will be capable of dime to
quarter size hail, 50 to 60 mph winds, and locally heavy rainfall.

Additional scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected to redevelop across the region later this afternoon and
evening, and persist into the overnight hours. The strongest
activity will be capable of golfball size hail, 70 mph winds, and
perhaps a few brief tornadoes. Additionally, areas of very heavy
rainfall and associated flooding concerns are possible. The greatest
threat for severe weather and heavy rain look to remain mostly
south of Highway 56.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Storm chances will return for Friday night with large hail the
primary threat with the storms.

Much warmer temperatures and high humidity will support heat
indices above 100 each afternoon Saturday through Wednesday,
especially across southern Kansas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Any reports of severe weather or flooding today and tonight would
be greatly appreciated.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita KS
122 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     Rain             3 NW Harper             37.32N 98.06W
06/25/2026  M2.40 Inch       Harper             KS   Public

            1.3 inches in the last 6 hours; 1.1 inches
            from yesterday and overnight.

&&