River Flood Warning 16, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
644 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions will support heat indices around 105
  across much of south central and perhaps southeast KS again on
  Wed.

- Low chance of severe storms across central Kansas with
  damaging winds around 60-70 mph possible.

- An active pattern continues Wednesday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Southwest mid/upper flow prevails over the central CONUS with a
mid/upper trough situated over the Northern Intermountain/Northern
Rockies. This trough is progged to propagate eastward emerging over
the Northern Plains late tonight while forcing the mid/upper ridge
south and east. A deeply mix pbl is progged across the High Plains
as the low level flow veers through the day. We may still see some
high-based convection develop across the High Plains along a diffuse
dryline this afternoon. This activity will race east/northeast this
evening. Inverted-v profiles/steep mid-lvl lapse rates will support
damaging winds with any storms that manage to develop through the
early evening hours, but better chances for hail may remain west of
the area. Our central Kansas counties could be impacted in the 00-
03Z timeframe as a more subtle pv anomaly rotates out of the
Southern High Plains late this afternoon before we see a more rapid
demise compared to yesterday. We are expecting a relatively brief
window as the pbl is progged to decouple rather quickly with
loss of daytime heating.

As we move into Wed, the mid/upper trough over the Northern Plains
will continue to move along the Canadian border while a trailing
cold front bisects Kansas during the afternoon hours. This front
will become a focus for deep moist convection in the 21-22Z
timeframe when the cap weakens. We continue to see steep mid-level
lapse rates and seasonably strong deep layer shear around 30-40
knots supporting more organized convection with large hail and
damaging winds. Isolated or widely scattered storms may develop
along the stalled frontal boundary or perhaps along the dryline to
our west. Some of this activity may linger into the evening hours.
The nocturnal LLJ nosing into parts of southwest/south central KS
during the early evening hours may allow for some of the activity to
linger or fester through the evening/overnight hours.

Thursday...The cold front is progged to move slowly south and east
bisecting southeast Kansas on Thursday afternoon. We continue to see
strong H5 flow on the south side of the Northern Plains trough with
relatively steep mid-lvl lapse rates and deep layer shear of 30-40+
knots supporting some storm organization once again. Areas mainly
southeast of the Kansas Turnpike will be the area of concern for a
few strong/severe storms on Thursday afternoon while a more stable
post-frontal regime builds over the remainder of the area. Storms
should race south and east away from the area during the evening
hours with a stable post-fronal regime building across the area
Thursday night.

Low level moisture may begin to return to the area on Friday as sfc
high pressure moves into the Middle Mississippi Valley area allowing
southerly flow to return to the Central Plains. A progressive zonal
flow is anticipated as we remain on the southern periphery of the
stronger belt of H5 flow. A developing warm frontal segment could
result in some shower/storm activity but confidence remains low.
Seasonable temperatures are anticipated with highs in the mid/upper
80s.

Sat-Tue...Another frontal boundary will sag southward over the area
this weekend bringing additional chances for showers and storms late
Sat into early Sun. Unsettled weather conditions may linger into
early next week as another shortwave trough rotates over the
Northern Plains. The warmest day is expected to be Sat, with below
average temperatures prevailing Sun-Tue.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 633 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Storms will impact RSL and GBD between 00z to 04z then are
expected to dissipate in central KS. Storms will cause heavy
rainfall, strong gusty winds, and lower ceilings at these
terminal sites. Breezy southerly winds are anticipated to
diminish after 02z with winds picking back up on Wednesday
morning. A cold front will push south into central KS Wednesday
afternoon, shifting winds at GBD and RSL to northerly. Low-
level wind shear will impact central and southeast KS tonight
around 06z then will diminish around 13z. Outside of storms, VFR
conditions are expected to prevail through this TAF period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ033-048>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ067-068-
082-083-091-092.

&&

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...GC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
700 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-110000-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
700 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
east central Kansas, south central Kansas and southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight

Strong to severe storms are possible west of Kansas State Highway
14 this evening into tonight. The main concerns will be damaging
wind gusts around 60 to 70 mph and up to ping pong size hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Heat indices between 100 and 105 are possible Wednesday afternoon,
especially across south-central Kansas.

Periodic thunderstorm chances are possible from Wednesday afternoon
through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita KS
707 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0702 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 SSW Albert            38.43N 99.03W
06/09/2026  M54 MPH          Barton             KS   Public

            Measured on a personal weather station.

&&

Baerg

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita KS
720 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0719 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Great Bend Airport      38.34N 98.86W
06/09/2026  M54 MPH          Barton             KS   AWOS

            Measured at the Great Bend Airport.

&&

Baerg

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita KS
726 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 SW Great Bend Airport 38.34N 98.86W
06/09/2026  M63 MPH          Barton             KS   AWOS

            Measured at the Great Bend Airport.

&&

Baerg

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita KS
731 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0726 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 NW Great Bend         38.37N 98.82W
06/09/2026  M68 MPH          Barton             KS   Public

            Measured on a personal weather station.

&&

Baerg

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita KS
734 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0726 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 NE Great Bend         38.39N 98.77W
06/09/2026  E60 MPH          Barton             KS   NWS Employee

            estimated about 60 mph, not much more.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita KS
743 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0741 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 NE Ellinwood          38.37N 98.57W
06/09/2026  M59 MPH          Barton             KS   Public

            Measured on a personal weather station.

&&

Baerg