Tornado Warning 5, NWS Huntsville, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
228 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

...New NEAR TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1105 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

 - Conditions appear favorable for both locally heavy rainfall and
   flooding and strong-severe storms, with damaging winds and a
   tornado or two this afternoon into this evening. Expect this
   main threat period for any severe storms and flooding to be
   between 3 PM and 11 PM.

 - After a period of drier conditions Tuesday into Wednesday
   morning, chances for showers and storms increase to 40-60% from
   Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

The biggest update to today's forecast is the earlier issuance of
a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for all of our counties until 7pm
tonight. The edge of the MCV is currently pushing through north
central AL, Southern Middle TN and into NE AL. Storms so far have
produced heavy rainfall along with wind gusts of at least 40 mph
as well as frequent lightning. There have also been segments in
the line that have shown rotation early this afternoon, along with
cell mergers. This trend will likely continue through the
remainder of the afternoon into this evening, as Hi-Res model
guidance shows an increase in SRH to between 100-200 m2/s2
especially over north Alabama and into central Alabama.

Thus, the low chance of tornadoes will persist through at least
early this evening, as well as the damaging wind threat from
bowing segments. With storms moving at a decent clip, flooding has
not been as much of a concern so far, but this will be monitored
for training storms through this evening. Stay weather aware this
afternoon and if a Severe Thunderstorm or Tornado Warning is
issued for your location, take shelter immediately!

Previous Discussion:
Persistent rainfall from a cold pool boundary has stayed mainly
north of the TN River this morning, producing heavy rainfall and
batches of frequent lightning. This is good for our AL counties,
however not so much for Lincoln and Moore Co in TN. Starting off
on a drier note in most places will help with hydro concerns for
this afternoon. Regardless, we will keep a keen eye rainfall rates
today, and if any backbuilding occurs to increasing flooding
concerns across the board.

On the heels of this batch of rainfall, there is a MCV that has
developed in AR and sliding eastward. The eastern portion of the
MCV will reach the MS/AL border in the next hour or two. On top
of this, there is a shortwave upstream of the MCV that will arrive
later this afternoon as well. Our counties haven't been worked
over this morning and ahead of these features, CAPE values will be
1-2,000 J/kg, PWATS 2.0-2.2" (99th percentile), bulk shear up to
30kts right ahead of the line and a LLJ up to 50kts later this
afternoon into this evening. Thunderstorms this afternoon will be
capable of producing strong to damaging wind gusts, heavy rainfall
that could produce flooding concerns, and a tornado threat. Will
note the tornado threat is a little bit higher than previous
forecast. This is noted in SPC's latest convective outlook as
well. We remain in a Slight Risk Convective Outlook (Level 2/5),
and a Slight Risk ERO. Strong to severe timing looks to be just a
tad slower, moving into NW AL 2-4pm and moving out of NE AL
10-11pm.

Once this moves through, precip chances will drop off fairly
quickly. A cold front will slip into the TN Valley between
midnight and early morning Tuesday, but not sure on exactly how
far it will make it into the CWA before slowing down. Lows will
be in the upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 1105 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

It's still uncertain exactly where the cold front will stall out
on Tuesday, but it should be just south of us. If it makes it all
the way through, there will be northerly winds in the wake of the
front and a slow erosion of cloud cover. Highs will be in the
lower 80s. Drier conditions will linger into Wednesday before the
next round of rainfall returns Wednesday afternoon (15-30%) as a
short wave swings through. The previously mentioned cold front
should lift back northward on Thursday, creating low to medium
shower/storm chances (30-60%). Daytime highs will be in the mid to
upper 80s each day with lows around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 1026 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

We continue in a generally wet pattern through the beginning of
the long term period, with at least low chances (30%) of showers
and thunderstorms daily. With high pressure over the southeastern
US and low pressure over the Great Lakes region, the TN Valley
will remain wedged between with an upper level shortwave forecast
to push eastward into the area by Thursday into Friday. As this
occurs, rainfall chances will increase to medium (40-60%) both
Thursday and Friday afternoons with the assistance of a lingering
frontal boundary south of the area as well as southwesterly flow.
There remains some model disagreement in the potential environment
based on placement/track of aforementioned upper level shortwave,
however, southwesterly flow will likely contribute to a moist
environment with PWATs reaching around 1.7-1.8" (just below 90th
percentile sounding climatology per BMX). The majority of
rainfall/flash flood potential will likely remain to our west in
areas where the Weather Prediction Center has already highlighted
in a Marginal (risk level 1 of 4) Outlook for Excessive Rainfall.
Rain chances will gradually decrease as we head into the weekend
as sfc high pressure begins working in from the west. Heat will be
a concern towards the end of the week as well as highs are
forecast to reach the upper 80s to low 90s with heat index values
around 100 degrees by Saturday and Sunday. If you have outdoor
interests at the end of the work week, be sure to check back in
for updates.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

A relatively low confidence forecast regarding timing details with
expected additional rounds of SHRA/TSRA to occasionally impact
the KHSV and KMSL TAF sites through the afternoon/evening. The
bulk of the activity may tend to occur early in the TAF period
(highest confidence due to existing obs in KHTX/KGWX radars). The
heavier TSRA/SHRA will initially pass mostly north of KHSV but
sufficiently close to warrant VCTS in TAFs. Further development
and expansion of SHRA/TSRA is anticipated as an upr- lvl low
traverses the area, bringing the potential for MVFR/IFR
ceiling/vis conditions. Winds aloft should be high enough to
warrant LLWS mention in the KMSL TAF (NW areas most prone) through
~22Z. Clearing on the backside of the upr low is anticipated and
generally supported by ongoing satellite obs and NWP guidance
after ~02-05Z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...26/JMS
SHORT TERM....JMS
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...KDW

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
342 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

ALZ004>007-222115-
Lawrence AL-Madison AL-Morgan AL-Limestone AL-
342 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MADISON...
SOUTHEASTERN LIMESTONE...MORGAN AND EAST CENTRAL LAWRENCE COUNTIES
THROUGH 415 PM CDT...

At 342 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Decatur, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Southern Huntsville, Decatur, Hartselle, Redstone Arsenal,
Priceville, Trinity, Falkville, Triana, Huntsville International
Airport, and Somerville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
north central and northwestern Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3435 8715 3461 8715 3468 8710 3464 8653
      3443 8667
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 254DEG 39KT 3454 8695

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

HC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
349 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0256 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 WSW Anderson          34.89N 87.33W
06/22/2026                   Lauderdale         AL   911 Call Center

            Tree down blocking both lanes on County Road
            76 near the intersection of CR 55, CR 51,
            and CR 76. Time estimated from radar.

&&

CGAA