Special Weather Statement, NWS Huntsville, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
623 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1116 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

 - High chances for showers and thunderstorms today with a low
   chance of severe storms capable of damaging winds, locally
   heavy rainfall, and a tornado or two.

 - 1-2 inches of rain with higher amounts to 3 inches may occur
   today in locations that experience repeated rounds of storms,
   which could lead to localized flash flooding.

 - Medium chances (50-60%) chances for showers and thunderstorms
   Sunday linger (though mainly in the afternoon) through
   Tuesday.

 - Lower chances (20-40) are expected to continue into next
   weekend, with the threat for dangerous heat returning toward
   the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

The surface/upper low continues to spin over west central Illinois
at this time. Further southeast of the surface low, its attendant
cold front has shifted southeast to to west of Nashville, TN SW
into the Memphis, TN area and into northwestern Mississippi. Over
the last hour or so, some organized elevated radar returns have
started to show up near Nashville. Expect that area will be the
initiation area for a line of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms
that will develop into the mid afternoon hours. This activity is
still expected to develop SSW towards the mid/late afternoon hours
into portions of NW Alabama and push east into the evening hours.
Overall timing has slowed just by an hour or two with new
guidance, suggesting the main window for severe weather across
northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee would now be
between 3 PM and 11 PM today. Not sure how much of our three
western counties (Lauderdale/Colbert/Franklin counties - AL) will
see of this activity. However, portions of those counties could be
clipped briefly by this line during the mid/late afternoon hours.

Threats are still the same with just enough shear, helicity, and
instability still being forecast along/ahead of the front with
this convective development. Damaging winds still looks like the
most common threat with any severe storms that develop. A brief
tornado cannot be ruled out though. It does look like this line of
storms will push east through the evening hours. However, with
PWATS still forecast to climb to around 2 inches, flash flooding
will still be possible.

SPC has included northern Alabama and our southern middle
Tennessee counties in a mesoscale discussion for a possible severe
weather watch. However, shear in current meso-anlysis is lagging
more to the north than current model output and lapse rates are
not impressive, so confidence in a watch is low (only 40%).
If one was issued, it would likely be over the next few hours,
but confidence in a watch overall is low.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1116 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

With some stronger cold air advection behind the front and some
temporary clearing overnight, temperatures should be able to drop
into the mid to upper 60s around daybreak on Sunday. Some fog
development will likely occur.

The surface and upper low shift southeast over time on Sunday
into central Kentucky. This will allow for medium to high chances
(especially north of the Tennessee River) in the forecast on
Sunday (mainly in the afternoon). Better shear is well east of the
center of the upper low in most guidance. So, general showers and
maybe a few thunderstorms look possible, but nothing severe. Due
to cold air advection, cloud cover and precipitation chances,
highs should be rather cool, only reaching the upper 70s to lower
80s in most locations.

Sunday night into Monday, the upper low weakens as it shifts more
SSE into northern Alabama. This should allow for even more
widespread shower and thunderstorm activity to occur Monday
afternoon. Again, Due to the weakening nature of this upper low,
not really seeing ample shear or instability in place for strong
to severe thunderstorm development. However, some training of
bands of heavier rainfall and maybe isolated flash flooding could
occur given the location of the slowly moving upper low. A bit
more morning sunshine could allow highs to climb a tad higher, but
still given cloud cover and precipitation, highs should only top
out int the upper 70s to around 85 degrees or so.

As we move into Tuesday, The upper low starts to shift to the east
and then NW as an approaching longwave trough axis draws it that
direction. This should keep medium to high shower and thunderstorm
chances in the forecast near and east of the I-65 corridor on
Tuesday afternoon. Again, shear and instability look too meager
for any strong thunderstorm development.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1116 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Towards the middle/end of the week the upper low opens into an
open wave that merges with a longwave trough axis approaching the
Ohio Valley region. This should continue to lower shower and
thunderstorm chances into the low to medium chance category.

GFS shows a convective complex developing over the southeast.
However, this looks alot like convective feedback at this time. So
staying with lower pop Thursday into Friday (20-40%). However,
will need to monitor this period for high precipitation chance
potential if that materializes. An overall increase in high
temperatures are expected Wednesday through the end of next week.
Highs should rebound back into the upper 80s to lower 90s in most
locations with more sunshine in the morning expected.

Models do seem a bit more convergent on a weak front (longwave
trough axis aloft) push east into the Tennessee Valley into the
weekend. This could kept low to medium chances of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast next weekend. Again, shear and
instability looks to weak for stronger thunderstorm concerns.
Dangerous heat index values over 100 degrees may build back into
the region next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 552 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

VFR conditions are still in place at both terminals. Some storms
could come within 5 miles of the KHSV terminal through 2Z.
Therefore, a predominant VCTS was included at that terminal
through then. A tempo group was also included through 2Z for
possible -TSRA development that could reduce VSBYS/CIGS between
00Z and 02Z. The forcing mechanism is already east of KMSL, so
only inlcuded a VCTS through 01Z at that terminal. Then expect VFR
conditions with mid/high clouds this evening. The high/thin nature
of these clouds and light winds should allow for some fog
development towards daybreak on Sunday. Thus, included predominate
MVFR VSBYS to account for this after 10Z at both terminals. These
VSBYS/CIGS may need to be lowered if widespread denser fog
develops.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...KTW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
358 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

TNZ076-097-012130-
Franklin TN-Moore TN-
358 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL MOORE AND NORTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM CDT...

At 358 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Estill Springs, or near Winchester, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Winchester, Decherd, Estill Springs, Tims Ford Lake, Woods Reservoir,
Arnold AFB, and Alto.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3534 8603 3531 8600 3532 8598 3529 8592
      3527 8590 3514 8619 3529 8633 3535 8622
      3533 8620 3535 8618 3535 8616 3536 8616
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 239DEG 26KT 3526 8617

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RSB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
517 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

ALZ009-012230-
Jackson AL-
517 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY
THROUGH 530 PM CDT...

At 517 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Bridgeport, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Bridgeport, Long Island, and Russell Cave National Monument.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3487 8562 3483 8576 3497 8586 3499 8581
      3498 8560 3488 8559 3488 8558 3487 8559
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 241DEG 34KT 3494 8569

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RSB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
535 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

ALZ009-010-012315-
DeKalb AL-Jackson AL-
535 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN JACKSON AND
NORTHEASTERN DEKALB COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM CDT...

At 535 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Stevenson, or 9 miles southwest of Bridgeport, moving northeast at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Bridgeport, Stevenson, Ider, Fabius, Higdon, and Long Island.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3472 8569 3470 8580 3486 8591 3499 8570
      3499 8561 3486 8559 3486 8558 3484 8558
      3477 8556
TIME...MOT...LOC 2235Z 239DEG 17KT 3482 8578

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RSB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
629 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

ALZ006-008-009-020015-
Marshall AL-Madison AL-Jackson AL-
629 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL MARSHALL...WESTERN
JACKSON AND SOUTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM CDT...

At 628 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Gurley, or 13 miles southeast of Huntsville, moving northeast at 30
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Scottsboro, Owens Cross Roads, Hollywood, Skyline, Gurley, Woodville,
Pisgah, Pleasant Groves, Hytop, and Paint Rock.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3468 8584 3459 8609 3452 8641 3468 8651
      3494 8600
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 243DEG 26KT 3464 8637

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RSB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
652 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

ALZ008>010-020045-
Marshall AL-DeKalb AL-Jackson AL-
652 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MARSHALL...SOUTH CENTRAL
JACKSON AND WEST CENTRAL DEKALB COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM CDT...

At 652 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Guntersville, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Albertville, Guntersville, Rainsville, Fyffe, Powell, Geraldine,
Section, Langston, Lakeview, and Union Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3421 8634 3438 8648 3463 8597 3443 8583
TIME...MOT...LOC 2352Z 237DEG 24KT 3433 8633

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RSB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
721 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

ALZ009-010-020100-
DeKalb AL-Jackson AL-
721 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN JACKSON AND
NORTHEASTERN DEKALB COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM CDT...

At 721 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hollywood, or 10 miles northeast of Scottsboro, moving northeast at
20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Scottsboro, Bridgeport, Stevenson, Hollywood, Ider, Pisgah,
Martintown, Long Island, Russell Cave National Monument, and Fackler.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3465 8596 3481 8607 3499 8580 3499 8568
      3486 8558 3474 8556
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 238DEG 16KT 3477 8594

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

RSB