Flash Flood Warning 48, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
741 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tropical Depression Edouard will continue to bring a significant
  threat for heavy rainfall across the Piney Woods for the next 24
  hours.

- Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 6 inches will be possible in
  areas that have already received significant rainfall.

- Scattered afternoon sea breeze showers and thunderstorms will be
  possible through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

The main concern this afternoon through Thursday will be continued
very heavy rainfall from the remnants of Tropical Depression Edouard.
Latest radar and satellite imagery indicates that the center of the
depression is located over eastern Houston County just east of
Crockett with GOES derived PW values approaching 2.3 inches in this
area. With weak mid and upper level steering flow noted, the system
will tend to meander slowly westward over the next 24 hours as mid
level ridging over the eastern CONUS begins to expand westward.
Until then, focused low level convergence in the vicinity of the
circulation will continue to support a re-invigoration of
convection periodically over the next 24 hours. Visible satellite
imagery confirms this with an expansive congested cumulus field
around the western periphery of the circulation. Radar imagery
also supports an uptick in convective intensity over the last hour
likely corresponding to increasing instability due to afternoon
heating. The main threat will be locally intense rainfall in the
convective bands wrapping around the circulation, mainly across
parts of Houston and Trinity Counties in the immediate short term.
Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 6 inches will be possible
over the next 24 hours near the center of the circulation with
isolated spots picking up 10 inches through Thursday.

Additionally, low level convergence to the south of the circulation
may peak late this afternoon along and just north of the I-10
corridor aided by a weak sea breeze. The sea breeze influence may be
limited somewhat by the broader flow around the center of Edouard,
but high resolution guidance is signaling an uptick in convection in
a narrow band in this area. While heavy rainfall would certainly be
a concern in this area based on the potential for training over a
more urban area, the convection itself would likely be more robust
given ample mixed layer instability >2000 J/kg.

We'll have the highest PoPs (~100%) near the center of the
circulation across our far northern counties through late this
evening with an increase in PoPs (20-50%) along and just north of I-
10 late this afternoon and early evening. Otherwise, convection
should be tied closely to the center of circulation overnight
tonight. The remnant circulation should track farther west on
Thursday with additional rain chances mostly across our north and
northwest counties. Scattered afternoon sea breeze activity is
expected and we'll maintain some storm chances farther south through
the afternoon.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

By Friday, the low level circulation will largely be absorbed into
the mean flow, but a pronounced weakness in the 700-500 mb heights
will linger south of an expanding ridge axis. There will likely be
some weak forcing for ascent tied to the mid level disturbance and
with precipitable water values still above 2 inches, we should see
additional widely scattered afternoon showers and storms tied to an
active sea breeze. PoPs will remain relative high both Friday and
Saturday to account for this. While the upper ridge does expand
westward through the weekend, its influence will primarily be across
the Southern Plains leaving a deep easterly flow in place across
southeast TX. Ample deep layer moisture and a lack of broad upper
subsidence should support daily afternoon storm chances into next
week.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Banding from the south of TD Edouard is beginning to impact our
northern sites, particularly around IAH and CXO. These bands are
exhibiting frequent lightning and localized heavy rain rates.
We're forecasting these convective bands to last between 00Z-03Z
and provide gusty conditions between 15-25 kts. Just how far
south these bands will reach is uncertain, thus we elected to
include PROB30s as far south as HOU and SGR. We will also be
watching for any redevelopment along these bands to occur
primarily around CLL and UTS in the late hours tonight. After
these bands push through, winds generally from the south/southeast
between 5-10 kts (stronger closer to the coast, between 10-15
kts). For tomorrow, another chance of rain north of I-10 between
12-18Z which could coincide with MVFR CIGs and VIS, with a low
chance of those CIGs/VIS extending all the way down to IAH. South
and along I-10 rain chances peak between 20-24Z on Thursday with
the afternoon seabreeze. Winds tomorrow out of the south/southeast
between 5-10 kts and stronger along shower activity and the coast.

BSM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 104 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Southwest winds around the broader circulation of TD Edouard will
gradually give way to onshore flow later today and tonight. Winds
will generally be around 10 kt with intermittent higher gusts
especially in scattered thunderstorms. Seas 2 to 3 feet will become
1 to 2 feet later tonight through the end of the week. Low storm
chances will persist into next week.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)	  76  93  75  95 /  30  40  20  30
Houston (IAH)			  79  92  78  94 /  50  50  20  60
Galveston (GLS)			  84  91  83  91 /  10  30  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for TXZ163-164-176>179-196-
     198>200-212-213-300-313.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164.

GM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Bailey
AVIATION...BSM
MARINE...Bailey

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
640 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

TXZ179-030015-
Polk TX-
640 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN POLK COUNTY THROUGH
715 PM CDT...

At 640 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of Votaw, or 10 miles north of Thicket, moving east at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Segno.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3049 9473 3059 9479 3066 9458 3049 9454
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 261DEG 13KT 3055 9464

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
703 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

TXZ178-199-200-030030-
San Jacinto TX-Northern Liberty TX-Montgomery TX-
703 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL MONTGOMERY...
SOUTHERN SAN JACINTO AND NORTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM
CDT...

At 702 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near North Cleveland to 7 miles north of Patton
Village to near Splendora. Movement was east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cleveland, Splendora, Plum Grove, North Cleveland, and Tarkington
Prairie.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3039 9494 3035 9494 3021 9500 3023 9518
      3021 9528 3028 9528 3034 9518
TIME...MOT...LOC 0002Z 256DEG 12KT 3032 9518 3030 9521 3023 9523

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
715 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

TXZ199-200-213-030045-
Northern Liberty TX-Inland Harris TX-Montgomery TX-
715 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...WEST
CENTRAL LIBERTY AND NORTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM
CDT...

At 715 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Patton Village to Splendora to near
Woodbranch to near Porter Heights to near Spring. Movement was
southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Humble, Spring, Kingwood, Splendora, Patton Village, Roman Forest,
Woodbranch, Plum Grove, Atascocita, Porter Heights, Lake Houston,
northeastern Bush Intercontinental Airport, New Caney, and Porter.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3031 9495 3012 9496 3008 9501 3006 9506
      3002 9510 2993 9526 3010 9543 3015 9537
      3019 9535 3021 9530 3026 9522 3031 9521
TIME...MOT...LOC 0015Z 297DEG 10KT 3027 9517 3023 9518 3018 9523 3016
9528 3012 9530 3009 9535

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
753 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

TXZ199-213-030115-
Inland Harris TX-Montgomery TX-
753 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY AND
NORTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM CDT...

At 752 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles northwest of The Woodlands to Tomball
to near Cypress. Movement was east at 15 mph. There is some weak
rotation being monitored with a portion of this storm near Tomball.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Southern Conroe, Tomball, Jersey Village, The Woodlands, Spring,
Greater Greenspoint, Oak Ridge North, Shenandoah, Woodloch, The
Woodlands Pavillion, Hooks Airport, Chateau Woods, Willowbrook,
Langwood, Fairbanks / Northwest Crossing, Cypress, Hurricane Harbor
Splashtown, Porter Heights, Greater Inwood, and Carverdale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3033 9524 3005 9535 2982 9549 2997 9577
      3009 9570 3030 9562
TIME...MOT...LOC 0052Z 277DEG 13KT 3024 9559 3010 9564 3000 9571

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

47