Gale Warning 2, NWS Honolulu, HI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
959 AM HST Sat Feb 7 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 341 AM HST Sat Feb 7 2026

A cold front will move into Molokai this morning, then stall near
Maui later today. This frontal boundary combined with increasing
moisture and a disturbance aloft, will bring the potential for
heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and a few rumbles of thunder
through Monday. Breezy north to northeasterly winds will develop
behind the front, with the trades then becoming very windy Sunday
into Monday as strong high pressure builds north of the state.
Conditions will gradually improve by mid to late next week, though
breezy and showery trade wind weather is expected to persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...
Issued at 955 AM HST Sat Feb 7 2026

The forecast issued earlier this morning remains on track, with
the potential for heavy rain and flooding continuing today through
Monday, followed by strengthening trade winds late Sunday into
Monday.

The cold front moved across Kauai and Oahu overnight into
the early morning hours, bringing breezy north to northeasterly
winds in its wake along with periods of moderate to locally heavy
rainfall. Rainfall totals over the past 24 hours have generally
ranged from 2 to 4 inches in favored north- and east-facing areas.
As of mid-morning, the exact position of the frontal boundary has
become less distinct, but it appears to be draped across Maui
County. The front will continue to slow, then gradually stall and
weaken near Maui County and the Big Island later today.

This boundary will remain the primary focus for heavier showers,
making the flooding threat highly dependent on where the axis of
deepest moisture and low-level convergence ultimately sets up.
High- resolution model guidance continues to favor windward areas
from Oahu through the Big Island for the highest rainfall totals
through Monday, with windward Maui currently appearing most
susceptible to flooding. That said, the threat remains statewide,
and the Flood Watch remains in effect for all islands.

As the front dissipates and high pressure builds in from the
north and interacts with a deepening trough to the west, trade
winds will strengthen late Sunday into Monday, likely reaching
high-end Wind Advisory levels, with the potential for High Wind
Warning-level gusts in leeward downsloping areas of all islands.
Primary impacts include downed trees, especially given saturated
soils, scattered power outages, and hazardous travel for high-
profile vehicles. A High Wind Watch remains in effect for these
areas from Sunday through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 AM HST Sat Feb 7 2026

Currently at the surface, a slow moving cold front is located in
the Kaiwi Channel just east of Oahu as of 3 am HST. Behind the
front moderate to breezy north winds have filled in with frequent
gusts of 35 to 40 mph observed across Kauai and Oahu. Ahead of
the front light and variable winds prevail. Infrared satellite
imagery depicts mostly cloudy to overcast conditions across the
smaller islands, while clear to partly cloudy skies prevail over
most of the Big Island. Radar imagery shows scattered to numerous
showers across the smaller islands, with a few showers affecting
east and southeast facing slopes of the Big Island. Main short
term focus revolves around heavy rain and damaging wind potential
over the weekend into early next week.

The cold front is expected to move into Molokai later this
morning, then stall out over Maui later today. Low clouds and
showers will continue to be most prevalent along and in close
proximity to the front, with breezy north to northeast winds
developing in its wake. The front will gradually weaken and
dissipate during the next couple days, while strong high pressure
builds north of the state. Abundant moisture will pool along the
stalled front or its remnant moisture band through Monday, as a
disturbance aloft moves overhead. This will maintain the threat
for heavy rainfall and flash flooding across the area, with a
couple rumbles of thunder not out of the question Sunday through
Monday. As a result, a Flood Watch remains in effect from this
afternoon through Monday afternoon.

In addition to the flooding threat, very windy conditions are
forecast to develop this weekend and continue through early next
week, as a strong area of high pressure builds north of the
islands. A Wind Advisory will likely be required for the entire
state Sunday through early Tuesday. Portions of the state could
even see winds reach High Wind Warning levels. The strongest winds
are expected in areas downslope of terrain, through valleys, and
other local acceleration areas, and a High Wind Watch remains in
effect for these locations Sunday through Monday.

Finally, the old temperatures aloft associated with the upper
disturbance will support the potential for heavy snow on the Big
Island summits as well. Dry mid-level air is expected over the
summits today, with the arrival of deeper moisture expected
sometime tonight. As a result, the timing of the Winter Storm
Watch has been adjusted to begin tonight and run through Monday
afternoon.

Conditions will gradually improve for the middle and latter
portion of next week, although a somewhat showery and breezy
trade wind pattern will likely persist.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 955 AM HST Sat Feb 7 2026

A stalled front over the central part of the state will be
enhanced by an upper trough to the west today. AIRMET Sierra is
posted for tempo mountain obscurations above 2000 feet for all
smaller islands and likely continuing through the rest of today
and tonight. MVFR with localized IFR conditions will occur
throughout the day. Clouds will likely fill in over the Big Island
later today making AIRMET Sierra possible here as well.

AIRMET Tango posted for tempo moderate turbulence across all
smaller islands and adjacent waters due to the weather system over
the state. Moderate turbulence may occur across all portions of
these islands up to FL320.

Light icing is expected in cloud layer 120-FL230 from Kauai to
Oahu.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 341 AM HST Sat Feb 7 2026

A front is currently over the Kaiwi Channel and is expected to
stall and dissipate over Maui County later today. ASCAT pass
overnight showed widespread strong northerly winds behind the
front, and these strong winds should fill in over Maui County
behind the dissipating front. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
remains in effect across the waters surrounding the smaller
islands today. Over Big Island waters, gentle to moderate east to
southeast winds will give way to strengthening easterly winds by
tonight. Thus the Small Craft Advisory for Big Island waters
start this evening.

As the high expands and strengthens on Sunday, trade winds will
strengthen to near gale to gale force over most waters Sunday
afternoon through Monday. Due to the strengthening trades, a Gale
Watch has been issued starting Sunday for all Hawaiian waters.
In addition, expect heavy showers over most waters Saturday
through Monday with some isolated thunderstorms especially over
select leeward waters Sunday through Monday. Winds are expected
to ease some on Tuesday, but still remain in the strong range
with some near gales over the windier waters through at least
Wednesday.

A large west-northwest swell (295-310 degrees) has peaked
overnight across most areas and will be trending lower throughout
the day today. Recent observations at buoys 51001 and 51101
northwest of Kauai indicate a steady decline over the past 8 hours
and we should see surf drop below High Surf Warning thresholds
this afternoon. A High Surf Warning (HSW) remains in place for
exposed north and west facing shores for today, but it should be
downgraded to an advisory later this afternoon and drop below
advisory thresholds by Sunday morning. Over on the Big Island, we
should see a steady rise throughout the day today along west
facing shores and a High Surf Advisory is in effect. Small to
moderate north-northwest to northwest swells will prevail through
the remainder of next week.

Surf along east facing shores will significantly ramp up Sunday
into Monday as the trade winds strengthen, with surf heights exceeding
the advisory level by Sunday night. Surf heights may potentially
get close to warning levels along east facing shores of Kauai and
Oahu on Monday. Large east shore surf will slowly decline Tuesday
into Wednesday, but remain elevated through the remainder of the
week. Surf along south facing shores will remain small with some
small background south-southwest energy expected throughout the
first half of next week. Select southern exposures exposed to the
wind swell will likely see some larger waves.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai North-
Kauai Southwest-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Windward West-
Molokai North-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-Niihau-Oahu North
Shore-Waianae Coast-Windward Haleakala.

Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for Big Island East-Big
Island Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island
Southeast-Central Oahu-East Honolulu-Ewa Plain-Haleakala Summit-
Honolulu Metro-Kahoolawe-Kauai East-Kauai Mountains-Kauai North-
Kauai South-Kauai Southwest-Kipahulu-Kohala-Kona-Koolau Leeward-
Koolau Windward-Lanai Leeward-Lanai Mauka-Lanai South-Lanai
Windward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-
Maui Leeward West-Maui Windward West-Molokai Leeward South-
Molokai North-Molokai Southeast-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-
Niihau-Oahu North Shore-Olomana-South Haleakala-South
Maui/Upcountry-Waianae Coast-Waianae Mountains-Windward
Haleakala.

High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon for
Big Island Interior-Central Oahu-Ewa Plain-Honolulu Metro-
Kahoolawe-Kauai Mountains-Kauai South-Kauai Southwest-Kohala-
Koolau Leeward-Lanai Leeward-Lanai Mauka-Lanai South-Lanai
Windward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-
Maui Leeward West-Molokai Leeward South-Molokai West-Waianae
Coast-Waianae Mountains.

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kohala-Kona.

Winter Storm Watch from 6 PM HST this evening through Monday
afternoon for Big Island Summits.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Alenuihaha
Channel-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai
Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Maui County
Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-
Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.

Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon for
Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island
Southeast Waters-Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai
Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai
Windward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui
County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-
Pailolo Channel.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM HST Sunday
for Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-Big
Island Windward Waters.

&&

SHORT TERM...Farris
DISCUSSION...Jelsema
AVIATION...Foster
MARINE...Kino

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
1219 PM HST Sat Feb 7 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1154 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Kahului                 20.87N 156.46W
02/07/2026  M62 MPH          Maui               HI   ASOS

&&