Ashfall Advisory 2, NWS Honolulu, HI

100 
WWHW70 PHFO 251327
NPWHFO

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
327 AM HST Sun Jan 25 2026

HIZ027-051>053-260300-
/O.CON.PHFO.AF.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-260126T0400Z/
Big Island Interior-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Big
Island East-
327 AM HST Sun Jan 25 2026

...ASHFALL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...The recent Kilauea eruption has ended. However small 
  amounts of tephra and ash from this large eruption will continue 
  to persist near the ground level and be blown around by the low 
  level winds through the day.

* WHERE...Big Island East, Big Island Interior, Big Island South, 
  and Big Island Southeast.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM HST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Possible harm to crops and animals. Minor equipment and 
  infrastructure damage. Reduced visibility. Widespread clean-up may 
  be necessary.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons with respiratory illnesses should remain indoors to avoid 
inhaling the ash particles and all persons outside should cover 
their mouth and nose with a mask or cloth.

For recent status updates from USGS Hawaiian Volcanoes National Park 
go to https://usgs.gov/programs/VHP/volcano-updates#hvo

&&

$$

RCB

356 
WWHW70 PHFO 251709
NPWHFO

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
709 AM HST Sun Jan 25 2026

HIZ027-051>053-251815-
/O.CAN.PHFO.AF.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-260126T0400Z/
Big Island Interior-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Big
Island East-
709 AM HST Sun Jan 25 2026

...ASHFALL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Satellite imagery and web cameras no longer show no significant ash 
falling near Kilauea Volcano due to yesterday's eruption.

$$

WROE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
359 PM HST Sat Jan 24 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers across Maui County and the Big Island should
decrease this evening as weather conditions stabilize. A fair
weather day is expected across many areas on Sunday with sea
breezes developing during the day. A dissipating front is expected
to brush the state Sunday night into Monday, which should bring an
increase of showers primarily over windward and mauka areas
through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Water vapor satellite imagery show a short-wave trough swinging
through the state with showers and isolated thunderstorms
developing ahead of the trough axis, which is centered near
Molokai. For rest of this afternoon, scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms will be possible over Maui and the Big
Island with brief periods of heavy rainfall possible. Showers will
generally be on the decrease this evening with conditions
stabilizing overnight and land breezes developing across many
areas.

Another interesting feature seen on satellite is the
volcanic plume caused by the Kilauea eruption today. Satellite
estimated the plume heights to be over 35,000 feet and we have
received pilot reports of the plume reaching 38,000 feet earlier
today. The volcanic plume has weakened some from earlier today but
you can still see the plume drifting towards the east due to the
westerly winds aloft. Due to the significant amounts of
debris/tephra/ashfall falling in public areas surrounding Kilauea,
a Ashfall Warning was issued earlier today.

For Sunday, an upper level ridge building over the state will
bring stable conditions. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure
near the state will result in light and variable winds. Daytime
sea breezes will develop in many areas, which should allow for
afternoon clouds and some scattered showers over interior and
mountain areas. Any shower activity should remain light to
moderate in intensity due to the stable atmosphere.

Starting Sunday night, weather conditions will begin to change as
the tail end of a cold front approaches the state from the
north. There are still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the
how far south the cold front will get with the GFS model showing
the front stalling out and dissipating just north of the state. At
the surface, with a 1021 mb high building to the north of the
state behind the front, I am leaning towards the ECMWF solution
with scattered showers increasing across the smaller islands
Sunday night into Monday. Moderate to locally breezy trades should
increase on Monday if the ECMWF solution holds true.

In the extended, an upper level ridge will build over the state on
Tuesday with a surface ridge expected near the state as well.
Stable conditions are expected with light and variable winds
expected from Tuesday through at least Thursday. A land and sea
breeze pattern is expected during this time with afternoon clouds
and light showers possible over interior and mountain areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
Ashfall from Kilauea has impacted aviation near and south through
southeast of Hilo, and an ashfall warning is in effect.

Scattered showers continue this afternoon, but most locations
remain in VFR conditions. Isolated thunderstorms have formed on
Big Island. Surface winds are fairly light and in most areas have
come around out of the southeast, but many leeward areas are
seeing west or northwest winds due to seabreeze impacts. Drier
conditions are expected tomorrow with predominantly VFR conditions
statewide.

Currently, no AIRMETs are effect.

&&

.MARINE...
Light to moderate trades veer to southerly and become variable at
times as a front approaches from the west. Light trades briefly
return early next week followed by another around of variable to
southerly winds ahead of another front.

For N shores, short period remnants of existing NW swell are on
the decline today and surf will follow suit as the period
continues to shorten and swell size declines. A new small, medium
to long period NW swell builds across area waters tonight and
quickly peaks during the overnight hours resulting in a brief
overnight bump to surf. Energy directed at N facing shores then
fades into early next week. A moderate medium to long period swell
maintains elevated surf during the middle of next week followed by
a large medium period NW swell during the late week period. This
latter swell is forecast to peak near the High Surf Warning
threshold for N and W facing shores.

Surf along E shores remains small into next week owing to a lack of
trades. S shores remain nearly flat in the near term with a small
boost from tiny long period energy poised to arrive late Sunday and
continuing well into next week.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Big Island
Summits.

&&

DISCUSSION...Kino
AVIATION...Parker
MARINE...JVC