Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Gray, ME

221 
WGUS71 KGYX 211821
FFSGYX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gray ME
221 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

MEC027-212000-
/O.CON.KGYX.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-260621T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Waldo ME-
221 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL WALDO COUNTY...

At 221 PM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated 
thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 
0.5 and 2.5 inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or 
expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Belfast, Searsport, Stockton Springs, Knox, Brooks, Waldo, 
  Swanville, Morrill, and Belmont.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are 
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded 
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 4448 6889 4440 6914 4447 6926 4458 6900

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED

$$

GC

816 
WGUS71 KGYX 211957
FFSGYX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gray ME
357 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

MEC027-212007-
/O.EXP.KGYX.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-260621T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Waldo ME-
357 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
CENTRAL WALDO COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat.

&&

LAT...LON 4448 6889 4440 6914 4447 6926 4458 6900

$$

GC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
238 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this forecast package.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Scattered showers and thunderstorms today.

2. Low pressure moves in late Monday, exiting east Tuesday
morning. This will bring a soaking rain to the southern half of
the forecast area, with lighter rain elsewhere. Will want to
monitor locations that see rainfall from slow moving showers
this weekend for repeat moderate to heavy rainfall come Monday
and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

A weak short wave trough will pass through the region during the
early afternoon hours today. Cold temperatures aloft are
expected which will aid in relatively steep SFC and mid level
lapse rates. This coupled with a modest increase in SFC moisture
will allow for at least 1000 J/KG SBCAPE to develop rather
quickly by noontime. However, wind shear is pretty much non-
existent as flow aloft is less than 20 KT all the way up to the
upper troposphere.

A weak SFC trough aided by the weak approaching short wave
trough will aid in the development of scattered showers and
thunderstorms, likely starting by noon as there's no appreciable
CINH. A few of these storms could produce small hail and gusty
SFC winds. But with minimal wind shear there is no mechanism for
storms to organize. Therefore, any one storm should be short-
lived with the collapsing updrafts and resulting outflow likely
initiating other showers and short-lived storms nearby.

The coverage of showers and any thunderstorms will wane quickly
in the later afternoon hours as we lose heating and forcing for
ascent as the short wave trough moves east.

Winds will be much lighter today than they were on Saturday.
High temperatures should reach well into the 70s at most lower
elevations.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Guidance spread has tightened somewhat for rainfall expected
Monday through Monday night. Low pressure exiting the Ohio
Valley will nudge a warm front through southern New England,
with the wave riding this slow to advance boundary. The wave
itself is moving quite fast, with a range of solutions either
keeping the precip shield tight and compact, or with a little
more areal coverage of light rainfall.

Euro ensemble did drift south for recent guidance yesterday's
assessment at this time, and this becomes the dominant solution
in the global suite. Predominant rain process appears to be from
fgen banding in the precip shield, almost similar to a coiled
up winter storm. As the developing low is ushered across
southern New England, it will then transit northeast across the
Gulf of Maine. This drags the precip shield along with it,
keeping rain chances going Monday evening for much of southern
NH into the coast and interior of Maine into early Tuesday
morning.

This is a good tracer for the primary lift for this system,
with instability held to the south of the forecast area. It will
have a moist environment to take advantage of where this
forcing exists, with 90th percentile PWATs, warm cloud depth of
around 11 to 12kft, and high mean RH below 600mb. So rainfall
efficiency should be well represented in the precip shield.
Outside of this, dry air takes a toll on efficiency. While the
corridor of greatest rainfall is narrowing in on southern NH and
up the southern ME coast, any further shift could place this
axis further north. Given the potential for slow moving
showers/storms on Sunday preceding this event, will need to
monitor any localized locations that take on appreciable
rainfall, leading to a greater flood risk Mon/Tues.

The area will see a lapse in widespread rainfall for Wednesday,
but remaining moisture in the low levels will drive daytime
cumulus and scattered showers across the mountains and portions
of the interior. Thursday may play out much the same way, both
days seeing a quick warmup before the next synoptic system late
week. This could bring another wave of steady rainfall and/or
thunderstorms to the area, but would like to see better
agreement in guidance to mention further impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through Sunday night: VFR early this morning, while patchy fog
cannot be ruled out at LEB and HIE through 13z. Mainly VFR
during the day today with scattered TSRA developing around 16Z
and last until around 00Z. Scattered TSRA will bring the
potential for localized restrictions. Depending on rainfall
Sunday some patchy fog may be possible Sunday night. Otherwise,
VFR.

Outlook:

Monday: AM VFR, MVFR in the evening due to rain and
thunderstorms, IFR cig possible for southern NH terminals and
later south coastal ME.

Tuesday: AM IFR to MVFR in RA, improving to VFR by the end of
the day.

Wednesday: VFR likely with some SHRA across the interior.

Thursday-Friday: MVFR likely due to showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain below SCA thresholds Sunday into
Sunday night.

Light, variable winds and seas of around 2-4ft are expected through
all of next week. One potential exception to this may be late
Monday into Tuesday. This is due to low pressure moving across
the area, and some southeasterly SCA gusts are possible
especially over the open waters. Seas also could be a little bit
elevated on Tuesday as well, with occasional 3-5ft seas
possible as well. Conditions return to baseline by the end of
the day Tuesday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Cornwell/Ekster