Beach Hazards Statement 2, NWS Gray, ME

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
717 PM EDT Sat May 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes were needed at this time, tranquil weather
still expected this weekend. Increased shower probabilities
tonight as guidance continues to look more bullish on at least a
couple scattered showers over the region late tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Above normal temperatures are expected through the remainder
of the weekend. Outdoor recreation is bound to be in high
demand and area inland and ocean waters remain very cold.

2. Above normal temperatures continue into early to mid week
which should feature the warmest days of the year so far. With
the heat also come the chance for scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

A tranquil weekend is expected, with warm temperatures expected
and mostly clear skies. A decaying cold front will move through
the region tonight, bringing some chances to see some showers
across the area late in the evening. Skies clear early in the
morning tomorrow. Another warm and tranquil Sunday is on tap,
with high temperatures in the upper 70s and lower 80s.

With the abundantly warm weather today and tomorrow, it is
crucial to recognize that lake and ocean water temperatures have
not warmed up. Ocean sea-surface temperatures are still in the
lower to mid- 40s, with lake temperatures only at most a few
degrees warmer. Lake and ocean temperatures this cold pose a
significant hazard to swimmers, boaters and beachgoers.
Hypothermia and cold shock can occur in these water
temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

Ridging noses into the region Monday as surface winds turn
onshore. This should lead to a stable, uneventful day of
weather, but it will keep coastal and some inland portions a
couple degrees cooler. Daytime highs run up into the mid to
upper 60s along the coast, while interior and western portions
of the forecast area continue warming into the mid to upper 70s.

Amid a very large warm sector, areawide temperatures continue
higher Tuesday and Wednesday. 850mb temps come within reach of
climo maxes this period, and it should lead to surface temps in
the 80s areawide. Low 90s appear possible for southern portions
of the CWA, with more uncertainty to the north and west. This
mainly has to do with how close frontal lift to the north is,
generating more in the way of clouds and precipitation.

As mentioned in previous forecast, there is the potential for a
strong thunderstorm environment Tuesday and Wednesday. The
question for Tuesday will be how near a continuous forcing
mechanism will be (largely still displaced to the north and
west). Present forecast soundings depict weak to moderate
instability by the afternoon hours in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg
range depending on the parcel trace, but also have a cap of
stable air above the mixed layer. This would need to be overcome
for a greater storm threat.

For Wednesday, cold front is prog'd to be moving through the
forecast area which will indeed supply lift for storms should it
remain on this timeline. The questions here will be where is
its exact positioning, and how much time ahead of the front
exists for daytime instability to increase. Should the front
bisect the forecast area come Wednesday, its possible only the
eastern half would see the greater chance for general/strong
storms.

With the passage of the front, cooler temperatures look to
arrive for late week with lingering showers moving out of the
area by Thursday morning. With very little NBM spread, this cool
down is a fairly high confidence forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tranquil weather this evening will allow for VFR conditions to
prevail this afternoon and into the evening. A couple isolated
showers late tonight may allow for a very brief period of MVFR
between 00Z and 06Z Sunday (tonight). VFR is expected to
continue through the day on Sunday and even into Monday morning.
However, westerly wind gusts of 20 to 30 kt are expected Sunday.

Outlook:

Monday: VFR Expected.

Tuesday: AM VFR, PM MVFR possible due to showers/thunderstorms.

Wednesday: AM VFR, PM MVFR possible due to showers/thunderstorms.

Thursday: VFR Likely.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly SCA-level winds will subside this evening. Light and
variable winds are expected tonight and will continue through
Tuesday morning. Southerly winds build up to near SCA levels
during the day Tuesday, but slowly start weakening Tuesday
night and into Wednesday. Below-SCA level winds and seas will
continue through the remainder of next week.

Seas of 4-7ft are expected this evening, and weaken to 2-4ft by
Sunday afternoon. Seas of 2-5ft are expected through the end of
next week.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     MEZ023>028.
NH...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NHZ014.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ150-152-154.

&&

DISCUSSION...Cornwell/Ekster/Palmer
AVIATION...
MARINE...