Wind Advisory 4, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Habersham County, GA, Rabun County, GA, Alexander County, NC, Burke County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Davie County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Graham County, NC, Haywood County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Jackson County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, Macon County, NC, Madison County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Swain County, NC, Cherokee County, SC, Greenville County, SC, Oconee County, SC, Pickens County, SC, Spartanburg County, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
659 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Patchy black ice is possible in locations that received accumulating
snow from this morning, especially on untreated bridges and
secondary roads.

A Winter Weather Advisory was issued for Avery County and elevations
above 3500 feet for Madison, Yancey, and Mitchell counties from
18Z Friday through 12Z Saturday. Snow amounts have increased
sufficiently at high elevations along the TN border to warrant
an Advisory.

A High Wind Watch was issued for the NC mountain zones on the
east side of the spine, as well as the NC foothills/NW Piedmont,
for the period from 00Z Saturday through 00Z Sunday. Damaging wind
gust potential in those areas continues to increase.

Red Flag Warning conditions are looking like a greater possibility
for Saturday east of the mountains, especially across the NC
foothills.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Patchy black ice possible overnight into Friday morning,
especially in locations with light snow accumulations from today.
2. A Winter Weather Advisory will be issued for Avery County
and elevations above 3500 feet in Madison, Yancey, and Mitchell
counties from 18Z Friday through 12Z Saturday for snow accumulation
that will result in some travel impacts.
3. A High Wind Watch will be issued for the east side of the
NC mountains and the NC Foothills from 00Z Saturday through 00Z
Sunday. Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph will be possible, especially
near the Blue Ridge Escarpment on Saturday morning, which may
knock down tree limbs and cause power outages. Some locations east
of the Blue Ridge could get near Red Flag Warning conditions due
to frequent strong gusts and afternoon RH dropping down to 25%
or less, leading to dangerous fire behavior.
4. Cold again Saturday night across the mountains, possibly cold
enough for a Cold Weather Advisory, but a warming trend is still
expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Patchy black ice possible overnight into Friday
morning, especially in locations with light snow accumulations from
today.

Low pressure continues to pull east off the coast, with increasing
low-level NWLY flow atop the CWFA. Scattering clouds and weak CAA
will allow temperatures to drop 6-12 degrees below normal for
overnight lows, closer to 12 than 6 in locations with a snowpack.
Any meltwater or slush leftover on the roadways will refreeze
tonight, creating black ice and slick spots in the NC foothills and
Northwest Piedmont for the Friday morning commute. Use extra caution
on the roadways tonight into Friday morning, especially on untreated
bridges and secondary roads.

Key message 2: A Winter Weather Advisory will be issued for Avery
County and elevations above 3500 feet in Madison, Yancey, and
Mitchell counties from 18Z Friday through 12Z Saturday for snow
accumulation that will result in some travel impacts.

The model guidance continues to slowly trend upward on the snow
potential beginning Friday afternoon and continuing overnight
through daybreak Saturday over the mountains, mainly near the TN
border, to the point where the forecast supports issuing a Winter
Weather Advisory for parts of the northern mountains. Wintry precip
may come in two waves. The first round of precip will be associated
with the passage of a reinforcing cold front that trails an Alberta
Clipper low moving across the Great Lakes and southern Ontario on
Friday. The precip should arrive after noon with the cold front,
but this initial burst will have support of a compact short wave
that dives down from the NW with a quick shot of DPVA to enhance
the snow production. The short wave should force some light precip
beyond the NW flow upslope zones, and there's a chance of precip
out over the nrn foothills and NW Piedmont in the afternoon,
but it should be too warm for snow east of the mountains. In the
wake of the wave, there could be lull where the precip tapers off
to something more like rime icing or maybe even freezing drizzle
in some spots Friday evening as the moisture becomes more shallow
briefly, but this detail will not be included yet because of low
confidence. Another round of precip will take place late Friday
night and early Saturday morning as deeper moisture drops down
from the NW and saturates the profile up into the bottom of the
dendritic snow growth zone. The two waves combined would be just
enough to push Avery County and the other high elevations of the
nrn mountains into the Advisory range on average, though amounts
will be highly variable. The snow threat should end by daybreak
Saturday as the moisture pulls out while the wind picks up. More
on that below...

Key message 3: A High Wind Watch will be issued for the east
side of the NC mountains and the NC Foothills from 00Z Saturday
through 00Z Sunday. Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph will be possible,
especially near the Blue Ridge Escarpment on Saturday morning,
which may knock down tree limbs and cause power outages. Some
locations east of the Blue Ridge could get near Red Flag Warning
conditions due to frequent strong gusts and afternoon RH dropping
down to 25% or less, leading to dangerous fire behavior.

In the wake of the short wave that moves across the region late
in the day on Friday, model guidance shows the 850 mb flow really
picking up from the NW during the overnight hours. Winds at 850 mb
improve to greater than 50kt east of the spine of the Appalachians
after 06Z Saturday with 60-65kt winds indicated near the Escarpment
around 12Z-15Z Saturday. Meanwhile, the pressure difference across
the mountains reaches 10 mb Saturday morning, which is usually good
enough to result in howling winds on the east side of the mtns
during strong NW flow cold advection regimes. Fcst soundings are
split on how deeply the boundary layer will be mixed during this
time, with the NAM suggesting that at least Advisory-level gusts
will be frequent across the NC foothills. The prob of wind gusts
greater than 45kt climbs into the 50% range Saturday morning in
that area as well. The wind gust potential supports at least an
Advisory in these areas, but there are indications of a greater
impact and some warning-criteria potential. So...a High Wind Watch
will be issued for the zones on the east side of the mtns and
then out across the NC foothills and we will let the next shift
decide if any of that area would warrant a Warning. Expect a Wind
Advisory to cover a larger footprint than the High Wind Watch if
the model guidance continues to trend in the windier direction.

By Saturday afternoon, model guidance continues to trend even
drier than previous runs, with large sections east of the Blue
Ridge dropping down below 30% RH in the afternoon. Our forecast
often underestimates the amount of downslope drying and mixing in
the wake of a cold front, so if anything, the RH may trend farther
downward. Meanwhile, there is good potential that wind gusts will
remain frequent and at least 25 mph. If the forecast doesn't change,
a Fire Weather Watch will have to be considered for parts of the
area with coordination from land management agencies.

Key message 4: Cold again Saturday night across the mountains,
possibly cold enough for a Cold Weather Advisory, but a warming
trend is still expected next week.

Looks like one more cold night on Saturday night as high pressure
moves across the central Appalachians, with low temps dropping
down into the 10-15 degree range below normal. If not for the wind
also dying down, we would be looking at a Cold Weather Advisory
for parts of the mountains once again, but as it is the situation
looks borderline right now.

That might do it for the cold for awhile. The upper pattern will
finally become unblocked and progressive beginning on Sunday. Temps
start to rebound then, but will still be below normal. The flow
pattern flattens considerably by Monday and it should start to
feel like Spring with high temps finally above normal. Guidance
continues to indicate highs in the 60s by mid-week, with a southern
stream system moving through Wednesday that would bring only rain
even to the high elevations.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Pesky MVFR cigs lingering at time of 00z TAF
issuance, but should lift/scatter to VFR by 01z or 02z, then VFR
conditions expected thru the rest of the period. Some fast moving
VFR mid/upper-level clouds will move in overnight tonight with a
cold front approaching the region, but should scatter out after
daybreak Friday and the lower cloud cover and precip remaining
confined to the mountains along the NC/TN border. If clouds can
clear out enough before sunrise, could see patchy fog across the NC
Piedmont. Have added tempo for some IFR vsby at KCLT from 11-13z,
and kept the MVFR vsby at KHKY. Confidence is moderate on brief
fog impacts at those sites. Winds pick up out of the SW across
the Piedmont, and become gusty in the Upstate in the aftn. NNW
wind will persist at KAVL, with gusts in the aftn.

Outlook: Dry, VFR conditions are expected through the weekend. Gusty
winds develop later Friday in association with a cold front and
linger across the mountains through Saturday, but will gradually
taper off east of the mountains early Saturday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday
     for NCZ033-048>050.
     High Wind Watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening
     for NCZ033-035-049-050-053-063>065-501>510.
SC...High Wind Watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening
     for SCZ103.

&&

ARK/CAC/PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
115 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

NCZ051-052-058-059-062-061815-
Swain-Haywood-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
115 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Snow showers are expected to develop in the higher elevations along
the Tennessee border Friday afternoon and continue into the night.

In addition to the snow, strong wind gusts are expected across the
mountains and will continue into the day Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ033-049-050-061815-
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-
115 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY...
...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Patchy black ice will be a concern tonight into Friday morning for
locations that received accumulating snow. Use extra caution when
traveling on roadways, especially on untreated bridges and secondary
roads.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.
   High Wind Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ053-063>065-501-503-505-061815-
Buncombe-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-
Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
115 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Patchy black ice will be a concern tonight into Friday morning for
locations that received accumulating snow. Use extra caution when
traveling on roadways, especially on untreated bridges and secondary
roads.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ048-061815-
Madison-
115 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ036-037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ101-102-061815-
Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-
Cabarrus-Union-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
115 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Piedmont North Carolina and
Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Patchy black ice will be a concern tonight into Friday morning for
locations that received accumulating snow. Use extra caution when
traveling on roadways, especially on untreated bridges and secondary
roads.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ035-502-504-506>510-SCZ103-061815-
Alexander-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Greenville Mountains-
115 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Piedmont North Carolina,
western North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Patchy black ice will be a concern tonight into Friday morning for
locations that received accumulating snow. Use extra caution when
traveling on roadways, especially on untreated bridges and secondary
roads.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-SCZ008>014-019-104>109-061815-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Cherokee-York-Anderson-
Abbeville-Laurens-Union-Chester-Greenwood-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-Southern Greenville-
Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
115 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and Upstate
South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.