Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
135 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated the aviation discussion for the 18Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms is possible
west of I-26 this afternoon and evening, with one or two storms
potentially becoming strong to severe.
2. Heat risk will steadily increase through the week, with heat
indices likely exceeding 100 degrees across much of the Piedmont
and foothills, especially by mid to late week. Daily thunderstorms
will also be possible across the mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms is
possible west of I-26 this afternoon and evening, with one or two
storms potentially becoming strong to severe.

A stout upper ridge continues to build in across the Deep South into
the Tennessee Valley. On the eastern flank of the ridge, deep-layer
northerly flow is in place over the Southern Appalachians. Low-level
convergence has fostered a plume of deep moisture and locally high 0-
3 km ThetaE air generally along and west of the I-26 corridor. Early
afternoon visible satellite imagery depicts a deepening cumulus
field within this plume of moisture with convective initiation to
follow shortly thereafter. Coverage may remain limited and
predominately scattered, but the environment will be conducive to a
few of these storms potentially becoming strong to severe. SPC
mesoanalysis depicts surface-based CAPE upwards of 4500 J/kg along
with 700-1000 J/kg of DCAPE and modest low-level lapse rates.
Locally damaging winds will be the main threat with any severe
storms along with an outside chance for isolated small hail.
Otherwise, the ongoing heat advisory for Elbert County remains in
effect until 8 PM this evening.

Key message 2: Heat risk will steadily increase through the week, with
heat indices likely exceeding 100 degrees across much of the
Piedmont and foothills, especially by mid to late week. Daily
thunderstorms will also be possible across the mountains.

The synoptic pattern will continue to amplify through the week as a
deep trough digs down the west coast while a highly anomalous upper
ridge builds from the Tennessee Valley into the Southern
Appalachians. 500mb heights and 850mb temperatures will both be in
the 99th percentile for the end of June and early July and will
support a building heat wave as we head into the 4th of July holiday
weekend. Temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 90s by
Wednesday with upper 90s to low 100s common east of the mountains
Thursday through the weekend. Mountain valleys will likely see highs
in the low to mid 90s with mid to upper 80s even across the highest
elevations.

The biggest question is whether heat indices reach advisory criteria
of 105 degrees. Historically, for temperatures in the western
Carolinas and northeast Georgia to reach the low 100s we need
relatively dry soil along with dry air. Given ongoing drought
conditions and only scattered swaths of rainfall the last several
days these conditions would appear to be met. Diving deeper into
forecast soundings, and guidance indicates a very deep and well
mixed boundary layer with mixing as deep as 700 mb on the hottest
days this weekend. This in turn results in dewpoints mixing out into
the low 60s and perhaps even the upper 50s. This has major
implications on the heat index forecast with values struggling to
reach criteria despite air temperatures in the low 100s.
Furthermore, you can never rule out a ridge riding upstream
convective complex in these setups. Even if no rain makes it into
the area convective debris clouds could wreak havoc on daytime
temperatures. That being said, while confidence in reaching advisory
criteria is moderate at best, it will still be hot and heat related
stress leading up to and through the holiday weekend needs to be
taken seriously. Those with outdoor plans, including holiday and
recreation, should prepare for several days of elevated heat risk.
Stay hydrated, take frequent breaks in air-conditioned or shaded
areas, and never leave children or pets unattended in vehicles.

In addition to heat, daily afternoon thunderstorms will be possible
across the mountains where topographical influences should help to
initiate at least isolated to widely scattered storms each day. Most
of this activity should remain confined to the mountains, at least
through much of this week. As with any summer storms, a few could
become strong to severe. There are some indications that the pattern
could become more convectively active late weekend and beyond as the
upper ridge breaks down and northwest flow with embedded shortwaves
returns.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Predominately VFR conditions will prevail at
most terminals through the TAF period. An afternoon cumulus field
has developed across the area along with scattered showers and
thunderstorms, mainly along and west of I-26. As such, PROB30 groups
have been carried at KAVL, KGSP, KGMU and KAND for scattered
thunderstorms through this afternoon. Thereafter, any showers and
storms should dissipate through the evening with quiet conditions
overnight and tomorrow morning. The only other thing to watch for
will be the potential for another round of valley fog/stratus at
KAVL, but confidence is too low to warrant mention in the TAF at
this time.

Outlook: Diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected mainly
across the mountains through the workweek. Mountain valley fog/low
stratus will be possible each morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 07-02

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      93 1970     65 1943     70 2018     44 1988
                1954
                1931
   KCLT     101 1931     64 1943     76 1991     56 2008
                                        1970
                                        1931
   KGSP     101 1954     66 1943     77 1931     53 1899

RECORDS FOR 07-03

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      93 1970     65 1988     70 2018     50 2008
                1897                    1931        1937
                                                    1932
   KCLT      99 1931     70 1988     76 1925     56 2010
   KGSP      99 2016     70 1988     77 1925     56 1984
                1970
                1953

RECORDS FOR 07-04

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      97 1948     68 1976     70 2016     51 1986
   KCLT      99 1993     70 1968     76 1993     55 1933
                1955
   KGSP     100 1993     70 1988     75 2018     58 2021
                                                    1996
                                                    1933

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ029.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

TW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
538 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

NCZ501-502-504-292230-
Caldwell Mountains NC-Greater Burke NC-Greater Caldwell NC-
538 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL CALDWELL AND CENTRAL
BURKE COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

At 538 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles west of Lenoir, or 4 miles north of Gamewell, moving south at
10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lenoir, Gamewell, Cajah's Mountain, Collettsville, and Patterson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3600 8166 3600 8155 3581 8154 3582 8173
TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 010DEG 9KT 3593 8163

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MPR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
550 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

NCZ505-506-508-292215-
McDowell Mountains NC-Greater Rutherford NC-Eastern McDowell NC-
550 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL MCDOWELL AND NORTH
CENTRAL RUTHERFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

At 550 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles south of Marion, moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Shingle Hollow, Sugar Hill, Thermal City, Fero, Union Mills, and
Glenwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3543 8195 3544 8214 3547 8213 3553 8208
      3553 8211 3560 8209 3560 8197
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 008DEG 13KT 3553 8203

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MPR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
610 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

NCZ508-SCZ008-108-292245-
Greater Rutherford NC-Cherokee SC-Northern Spartanburg SC-
610 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD...
NORTHEASTERN SPARTANBURG AND NORTHWESTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES THROUGH
645 PM EDT...

At 610 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles south of Forest City, moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Forest City, Chesnee, Cowpens National Battlefield, Bostic,
Henrietta, Harris, and Caroleen.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3534 8178 3512 8181 3517 8198 3519 8197
      3522 8197 3522 8196 3523 8197 3524 8197
      3537 8188
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 017DEG 15KT 3527 8187

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MPR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
649 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

NCZ505>508-292315-
McDowell Mountains NC-Greater Rutherford NC-Eastern McDowell NC-
Rutherford Mountains NC-
649 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL MCDOWELL AND
NORTHWESTERN RUTHERFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM EDT...

At 649 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Marion, or 6 miles southeast of Old Fort, moving
south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Shingle Hollow and Sugar Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3565 8202 3546 8203 3550 8222 3551 8223
      3552 8222 3553 8217 3555 8221 3568 8212
TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 017DEG 14KT 3558 8208

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

MPR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
651 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

NCZ065-507-509-292315-
Henderson NC-Polk Mountains NC-Rutherford Mountains NC-
651 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN RUTHERFORD...EAST
CENTRAL HENDERSON AND NORTHWESTERN POLK COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM
EDT...

At 651 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northwest of Columbus, or 4 miles south of Bat Cave, moving
southwest at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Chimney Rock Village, Chimney Rock State Park, Bat Cave, Lake Lure,
Dana, and Edneyville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3546 8225 3546 8224 3542 8218 3529 8229
      3528 8229 3525 8231 3535 8243 3547 8226
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 039DEG 18KT 3539 8228

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MPR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
700 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

NCZ048>050-292330-
Yancey NC-Madison NC-Mitchell NC-
700 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL MADISON...
NORTHWESTERN MITCHELL AND NORTHWESTERN YANCEY COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM
EDT...

At 700 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Burnsville, moving south at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Burnsville, Poplar, Ramseytown, Faust, Swiss, and Wolf Ridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3613 8230 3588 8226 3584 8242 3590 8256
      3597 8253 3598 8251 3601 8246 3607 8242
      3609 8240 3612 8236 3612 8233 3613 8231
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 006DEG 16KT 3599 8240

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MPR