Severe Thunderstorm Warning 151, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
134 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued for western North Carolina
and is in effect through 8 PM this evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Severe weather is expected this afternoon and evening ahead of
a cold front with the main hazards being damaging winds and large
hail, but there will also be an isolated tornado threat. Make
sure you have multiple ways to receive warnings.
2. Heat and humidity peak today. A Heat Advisory remains in effect
until 8 PM for portions of northeast Georgia and portions of the
western South Carolina Upstate. Stay hydrated, limit time outdoors
and spend as much time in air conditioning as possible. Never
leave people or pets alone in a closed car. Look before you lock!
3. Less humid, drier, and cooler behind the front Wednesday through
Friday. Even cooler conditions expected over the weekend into
early next week with shower and thunderstorm chances returning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Severe weather is expected this afternoon and evening
ahead of a cold front with the main hazards being damaging winds and
large hail, but there will also be an isolated tornado threat. Make
sure you have multiple ways to receive warnings.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued and is in effect for western
North Carolina until 8 PM this evening. The watch may need to be
expanded southward later this afternoon or early this evening but
this will depend on how storms evolve over the next several hours.
The Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook continues to highlight a Slight
Risk for much of the GSP CWA with damaging winds and large hail
expected to be the main hazards, although there will also be an
isolated tornado threat, especially across western North Carolina. A
very favorable environment will be in place for late July with 30-40
kts of deep layer shear, 2,000-3,000+ J/kg of SBCAPE, and 2,000-
2,500 J/kg of MLCAPE, so any storms that develop will have the
potential to become severe. Any discrete supercells that develop
initially will have the potential to produce large hail but the hail
threat should gradually lower as cells attempt to converge more into
a line as storms push southward, per the 12Z CAMs. The tornado
threat and damaging wind threat will linger throughout the duration
of the event as both discrete supercells and storms eventually
trying to organize into more of a line will keep these hazards
around. With low-level 0-1 km shear ranging from mostly 10-20 kts
this afternoon and early evening, per 12Z high-res model soundings,
and with ~100-200 J/kg of 0-1 SRH expected, the tornado threat
should remain low and isolated. Storms should clear the GSP CWA by
around 9-10 PM.

Key message 2: Heat and humidity peak today. A Heat Advisory remains
in effect until 8 PM for portions of northeast Georgia and portions
of the western South Carolina Upstate. Stay hydrated, limit time
outdoors and spend as much time in air conditioning as possible.
Never leave people or pets alone in a closed car. Look before you
lock!

Increased SW'ly flow will allow highs to end up around 4-8 degrees
above normal this afternoon. Afternoon temperatures will climb into
the lower to mid 90s east of the mountains and the upper 80s to
lower 90s across the typically warmer mountain valleys. Heat indices
east of the mountains will climb into the upper 90s to lower 100s.
The Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8 PM for Elbert, Hart,
Franklin, and Stephens counties in NE GA and for Greenwood,
Abbeville, Anderson, and Oconee (non-mountains) counties in SC as
these locations will see heat indices range from 105-108 degrees.
Breezy W/SW winds ahead of the cold front will help provide a bit of
relief from the heat and humidity this afternoon and early evening.

Key message 3: Less humid, drier, and cooler behind the front
Wednesday through Friday. Even cooler conditions expected over the
weekend into early next week with shower and thunderstorm chances
returning.

The front will stall across the Deep South/Southeast during the rest
of the workweek as surface high pressure builds into the region from
the north. As a result, dry and cooler conditions will return
Wednesday into Friday night. The front will slowly lift back
northward this weekend into early next week allowing shower and
thunderstorm chances to return. Even cooler temperatures are
expected this weekend into Monday, with highs ending up just below
normal to start August.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Strong to severe TSRA will develop ahead of a
cold front this afternoon and evening. The main hazards are damaging
wind gusts and large hail but there will also be a isolated and low-
end tornado threat. Went with TEMPOs across the NC terminals as
confidence is highest that these areas will see TSRA and associated
restrictions. Maintained PROB30s across the SC terminals as
confidence on TSRA and associated restrictions is lower. VFR
conditions will prevail outside of TSRA this afternoon/evening but
KAVL could see MVFR stratus develop around daybreak. Winds will
generally be SW/W east of the mountains ahead of the front, turning
WNW/NW behind the front overnight. Winds at KAVL will start out
W/WNW ahead of the front, turning NW behind the front early this
evening. Low-end gusts from 18-22 kts can be expected this afternoon
and evening across the terminals, with higher gusts expected within
any TSRA that tracks directly over a terminal. Gusts will gradually
diminish by late this evening east of the mountains but will linger
at KAVL through the 18Z TAF period. Dry conditions return behind the
front late this evening and will linger through Wednesday.

Outlook: Dry and mostly VFR through Friday, with shower and
thunderstorm chances and associated restrictions returning this
weekend into early next week. Low stratus and/or fog will be
possible each morning, mainly in the mtn valleys.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ018-026-028-
     029.
NC...None.
SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ010-011-019-
     104.

&&

AR

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