Red Flag Warning 4, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
941 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Fire Weather Watch remains in place for Monday across northeast
Georgia. An Increased Fire Danger statement has been issued for all
of western North Carolina except for the northern mountains.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Dry and breezy conditions will support elevated fire danger
across much of the area Monday. The most critical conditions
will occur in northeast Georgia, where Red Flag products are
in effect based on the overlap of low humidity, dry fuels, and
gusty winds. An Increased Fire Danger statement is in place for
all but the northern mountains of North Carolina.
2. Patchy frost is expected in a few mountain valleys tonight
into Monday morning. Colder conditions Monday night could result
in frost across larger areas of the mountains and foothills,
and a freeze in some locations. A Freeze Watch has been issued
for Avery, Mitchell, and Yancey counties for Monday night.
3. Dry and trending warmer through the remainder of the work
week. Near-critical fire weather conditions are likely to
continue. A frontal system will offer a chance for rain over the
coming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Dry and breezy conditions will support elevated fire
danger across much of the area Monday. The most critical conditions
will occur in northeast Georgia, where Red Flag products are in
effect based on the overlap of low humidity, dry fuels, and gusty
winds. An Increased Fire Danger statement is in place for all but
the northern mountains of North Carolina.

Fuel conditions also remain supportive of rapid fire spread. Several
RAWS sites report fuel moisture values between 9 and 14 percent, and
additional drying is expected through the rest of the afternoon
given strong heating and the dry post-frontal air mass. The most
critical fire weather conditions will occur in northeast Georgia,
where the overlap of the driest fuels, delayed green up at higher
elevations, lower humidity, and stronger winds will support the
greatest fire spread potential.

Elevated fire danger is expected again Monday afternoon. A Fire
Weather Watch has been issued for all of northeast Georgia,
including the mountains, foothills, and Piedmont. An Increased Fire
Danger Statement has been issued for all but the northern mountains
of North Carolina. Although winds will be somewhat weaker on Monday,
forecast soundings continue to support deep mixing and efficient
transport of stronger winds aloft to the surface during peak
heating. This should result in gusts of 30 to 35 mph in the
mountains and 20 to 25 mph elsewhere, with minimum RH values falling
into the 20 to 25 percent range outside of the mountains and around
30 across the mountains. Should conditions RH end up lower across
the mountains or winds stronger for the foothills and Piedmont, then
a Red Flag Warning may be needed.

Outdoor burning is not recommended. Any fire that develops will
catch and spread quickly. Burn bans remain in effect until further
notice across the Carolinas.

Key message 2: Patchy frost is expected in a few mountain valleys
tonight into Monday morning. Colder conditions Monday night could
result in frost across larger areas of the mountains and foothills,
and a freeze in some locations. A Freeze Watch has been issued for
Avery, Mitchell, and Yancey counties for Monday night.

Patchy frost is expected in a few mountain valleys tonight into
Monday morning. A light northwest breeze should limit the frost
potential early Monday morning despite temperatures forecast to
bottom out in the mid 30s in the NC mountains. However, winds may
relax enough for patch frost development in the most sheltered
valleys.

Colder conditions Monday night could result in frost across larger
areas of the mountains and foothills, and a freeze in some
locations. A Freeze Watch has been issued for Avery, Mitchell, and
Yancey counties for Monday night.

Continuing cold air advection should allow temperatures to fall
several degrees below climo tonight and early Monday morning,
reaching the mid 30s in some of the mountain valleys of NC. Dry
dewpoints are expected to be a limiting factor across the board,
so only patchy frost is expected where temperatures become that
cold. Winds will continue to gust across the northern mountains,
so frost appears somewhat less likely there, compared to the Little
Tennessee and Pigeon River valleys southwest of Asheville which
are more likely to go calm. The likelihood of freezing temperatures
looks low tonight and Monday morning, excepting a few peaks above
5000 ft.

A dry backdoor front settling through the area Monday will
reinforce CAA. Easterly winds in the southern Piedmont and even
in the NC foothills appear likely to maintain at least a shallow,
dry mixed layer Monday night and early Tuesday, though temperatures
will trend colder compared to the previous night (tonight). Patchy
frost is possible north of I-40 as the CAA should bring temps into
the mid 30s, but the dry air again will be a limiting factor. The
CAA and mixing are expected to be too shallow to reach much of the
mountains, where weak WAA actually may occur in developing southerly
winds aloft. This however suggests mountain valleys will experience
radiational cooling, and are more likely to see the surface layer
saturate. Thus patchy frost is more likely in the valleys and again
will be mentioned. The radiational cooling should be sufficient
for Avery County, and most of Mitchell and Yancey, to dip below
freezing. Thus we have issued a Freeze Watch for those counties,
valid midnight Monday night to 9 AM Tuesday. In subsequent forecast
cycles we will reevaluate whether to expand the Watch and/or upgrade
to Warning. If a Frost Advisory is issued for any areas outside the
Freeze Watch/Warning, it likely would not be until Monday afternoon.

Key message 3: Dry and trending warmer through the remainder of the
work week. Near-critical fire weather conditions are likely to
continue. A frontal system will offer a chance for rain over the
coming weekend.

Broad upper ridging will be present across the central and southeast
CONUS through midweek, progressing eastward such that the ridge
axis is over the Appalachians by Thursday night. Temperatures will
trend warmer Tuesday night and Wednesday as the airmass modifies and
heights rise, though moisture return on the briefly southwesterly
winds will be very limited. RH is not expected to be quite as low
Tuesday, but still near critical levels. While winds will be light
fuels should continue to dry.

A weak shortwave diving down the leeward side of the ridge looks to
bring a similarly weak front across the Appalachians Tuesday night
and to the Carolina coast by late Wednesday. While the forcing
will be weak and moisture sorely lacking for any mentionable PoP,
the front will enhance the gradient aloft and lead to an uptick in
winds/gusts mainly during the day Wednesday. While wind potential
is not as great as on Monday afternoon, deep mixing will occur and
a few gusts of 20-25 mph appear possible. RH is likely to trend
lower. By Thursday the winds should turn light and southwesterly
again, but at least marginally critical RH should return both then
and Friday with temps continuing to trend warmer.

A deep trough will advance across the Rockies by Thursday night,
with attendant low in the northern Plains pulling a cold front
into the Southeast US by early Saturday. Weak instability could
develop over the western fringe of the Appalachians as soon as
Friday afternoon ahead of the front, though the better precip
chances arrive in our CWA on Saturday. Given some spread in the
models' orientation of the front and upstream convection, which
limits confidence the front will provide measurable precipitation
in our area, we collaborated with WPC to cap PoPs in the chance
range Saturday. The likelihood of more than 0.10" precip occurring
east of the Appalachian crest by Saturday evening remains less
than 50%, so not terribly significant in light of the worsening
drought and dry fuel moisture. A few model solutions stall the
front near or over the CWA Saturday night into Sunday, so there
is some potential for additional rainfall at those times.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail through the
period with no restrictions expected. The primary aviation concern
remains winds.

Winds drop off this evening but remain gusty at KAVL until around
05Z. Cirrus moves east with SKC expected most of the night.

Wind speeds increase after daybreak with NNW wind becoming very
gusty at KAVL. Outside of the mountains, winds pick up from the WSW
initially then turn WNW and gusty by afternoon. KAND the exception
where the direction remains more westerly. High based stratocu moves
in during the day as well.

Outlook: VFR and dry conditions persist through the work week with
high pressure in control.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
     evening for GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
     for NCZ033-049-050.
     INCREASED FIRE DANGER from Monday morning through Monday
     evening for NCZ035>037-048-051>053-056>059-062>065-
     068>072-082-501>510.
SC...None.

&&

JCW/JK/RWH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
930 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

NCZ035>037-048-051>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510-201000-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Madison-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
930 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

Brush and leaf litter are very dry in all but the northern
mountains of North Carolina, where fuel moisture values are higher
due to recent rainfall. Relative humidity will fall to around 30
percent in the mountains and below 25 percent in the foothills and
Piedmont Monday afternoon. Winds will gust to 30 mph across the
mountains and 25 mph across the foothills and Piedmont. Given the
dry vegetation, outdoor fires will be able to spread quickly once
started, increasing the danger of wildfires.

A Red Flag Warning could be needed if relative humidity drops
lower across the mountains or stronger wind gusts develop across
the foothills and Piedmont.

A statewide burn ban is in effect for North Carolina.