Special Weather Statement, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
632 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening (2-7 PM),
  bringing damaging winds, large hail, and a brief tornado threat
  to central, parts of north-central, and east-central Wisconsin.

- Another round of severe weather is possible Thursday afternoon
  and evening, mainly over east-central Wisconsin.

- Heavy rain is an increasing hazard through Thursday. Localized
  flooding is expected where heavy rain occurs.

- Dense fog will continue to pose a hazard to mariners along the
  Lake Michigan shoreline.

- Cooler, drier air arrives for the weekend, with intermittent
  rain chances through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 102 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a potent
northern Plains trough is lifting northeast into south-central
Canada, pushing a cold front east across western Minnesota. An
effective warm front extends from near Minneapolis to Fond Du Lac
early this afternoon, establishing a volatile and highly unstable
warm sector across southern Wisconsin. Even further south, an
shortwave impulse and associated convection over Iowa and
southeast Minnesota is primed to track northeastward, providing
large- scale ascent later today.

Severe Thunderstorm Potential This Afternoon/Evening: Destabilization
is expected this afternoon as this mornings thunderstorm activity
has exited. Extremely strong instability resides south of the
warm front, where surface- based CAPE values are ramping into the
3000-4000 J/kg range, driven by surface temperatures warming into
the middle 80s and dewpoints pooling into the middle 70s. Steep
mid- level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km and downdraft CAPE in excess of
1000 J/kg point to a volatile airmass highly favorable for severe
weather. As a shortwave impulse tracking out of Iowa provides
deep layer forcing, storms are expected to gradually intensify as
they shift northeastward between 3 PM and 8 PM. Convective
evolution carries some uncertainty, as high- resolution guidance
splits between a consolidated cold pool bowing system and discrete
clusters or broken line segments. Damaging wind gusts and large
hail are the primary threats. However, an isolated tornado threat
cannot be ruled out near the effective warm front across central
to east- central Wisconsin where low- level flow is locally
backed. The greatest severe threat is expected south of a
Rhinelander to Manitowoc line where a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is
in effect.

Some CAMS indicate develop additional thunderstorms along the cold
front due to move across the region late this evening. While
expectation is that the atmosphere will be worked over thereby
limiting buoyancy potential, an isolated strong storm will be
possible. The threat of storms will diminish by early overnight.

Thursday Severe Potential: The main surface cold front will
settle downstate overnight. After a lull Thursday morning, a very
dynamic shortwave trough will drive a surface low pressure system
northeastward across the region Thursday afternoon into early
Thursday evening. Model spread remains rather large regarding the
exact track of the surface low, leading to below normal forecast
confidence. The general consensus navigates the surface low
across east-central Wisconsin late Thursday afternoon. Areas south
of this track will possess the highest severe weather threat.
Instability will be substantially lower than today, maxing out
near 1000 J/kg, but wind fields will be considerably stronger.
Given the robust wind fields aloft, significant instability will
not be required, just sufficient for severe weather. Damaging
winds and an isolated tornado will be possible from the lows
triple point southward, placing east-central Wisconsin at the
greatest risk for severe weather. Sfc highs will range from the
mid 70s to low 80s.

Friday Wind and Marine Impacts: A cooler and drier weather
pattern returns on Friday in the wake of the departing surface
low as a longwave trough establishes itself from Hudson Bay into
the western Great Lakes. A tight pressure gradient on the southern
periphery of the trough will foster breezy conditions across the
entire area. Sfc wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph are expected over
land, and these strong winds will likely necessitate a Small Craft
Advisory across the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan and Green
Bay due to building waves.

Weekend and Extended Outlook: Spotty showers and storms will
linger over north-central Wisconsin Thursday night behind the main
surface low, but dry conditions return for most locations by
Friday morning. Saturday looks to be the more active day of the
weekend as a secondary cold front drops south. Instability will
moderate to around 500-700 J/kg by Saturday afternoon, which when
combined with mid-level wind fields of 30-50 kts, will support a
few storms capable of gusty winds. Behind this second front, a
distinct cooling trend takes hold. Temperatures in the low 70s to
low 80s through Saturday will fall back into the mid 60s to mid
70s from Sunday through Tuesday. The next appreciable chance for
widespread rainfall will arrive on Tuesday as a northern stream
shortwave digs into the western Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 623 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Showers and scattered thunderstorms across northeast WI will
exit the area by 03z. Meanwhile, scattered showers and storms
across western WI will move into the area during the early to mid
evening hours. Uncertainty exist is they would make into northeast
WI late this evening. Any patchy MVFR CIGs will dissipate this
evening with VFR conditions prevailing. Fair weather cumulus
between 1,500 and 3,000 feet will develop Thursday morning. The
next round of strong or severe storms Thursday afternoon. Wind
gusts to or over 50 knots will be possible.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday morning for WIZ022-040-
050.
&&

DISCUSSION.....MPC
AVIATION.......Eckberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
102 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-111815-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
102 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening (2-7 PM),
bringing damaging winds, large hail, and a brief tornado threat
to central, parts of north-central, and east-central Wisconsin.
Localized heavy rain and flooding could become an issue for areas
where repeated rounds of thunderstorms occur.

Dangerous swimming conditions are expected to develop along Lake
Michigan beaches from late afternoon through late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rain are
expected Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening over northeast
Wisconsin and east-central WI. Localized flooding could occur.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to report any wind damage, hail, or
flooding to the National Weather Service in Green Bay.

LMZ521-522-541>543-111815-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
102 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Additional rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms will occur
this afternoon into this evening. Any thunderstorm could pose a
hazard to mariners.

Areas of fog may be dense along the Lake Michigan shoreline
through early this evening. A marine dense fog advisory remains in
effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

Additional thunderstorms are expected Thursday afternoon through
Thursday evening. Any thunderstorm could pose a hazard to
mariners.

Hazardous conditions to small craft are possible on Friday.

MPC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
718 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

WIZ035-110100-
Wood WI-
718 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WOOD COUNTY UNTIL 8 PM CDT...

At 718 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pittsville, or 17 miles west of Wisconsin Rapids, moving east at 40
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

The strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Pittsville and Babcock around 720 PM CDT. Wisconsin Rapids around
  745 PM CDT. Lake Wazeecha around 750 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this strong thunderstorm include Veedum,
Scranton, Sandhill Wildlife Area, Dexterville, Cranmoor, North Wood
County Park, Powers Bluff County Park, Walker, Vesper and Port
Edwards.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4434 9032 4457 9031 4463 8985 4451 8984
      4451 8973 4437 8972 4425 8972 4425 9032
TIME...MOT...LOC 0018Z 259DEG 32KT 4440 9017

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

GK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
752 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

WIZ036-110130-
Portage WI-
752 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTAGE COUNTY UNTIL 830 PM
CDT...

At 752 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lake Wazeecha, or 7 miles east of Wisconsin Rapids, moving east at 40
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

The strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Whiting and Stevens Point around 805 PM CDT. Amherst around 820 PM
  CDT.

Other locations impacted by this strong thunderstorm include Meehan,
Kellner, Coddington, Keene, Plover, Bancroft, Arnott, Stockton,
Standing Rock Park and Fancher.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4451 8981 4462 8984 4465 8923 4425 8923
      4425 8972 4437 8972 4451 8973
TIME...MOT...LOC 0051Z 258DEG 35KT 4438 8969

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

GK

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Preliminary Local Storm Report...Summary
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
859 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0706 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Athens                  45.03N 90.07W
06/10/2026                   Marathon           WI   911 Call Center

            Tree down along highway 97.

0727 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Wausau                  44.96N 89.63W
06/10/2026  M45 MPH          Marathon           WI   ASOS

            Measured at Wausau Downtown Airport.

0730 AM     Rain             1 NNW Hewitt            44.64N 90.13W
06/10/2026  M1.47 Inch       Wood               WI   CO-OP Observer

            CO-OP Observer station MFDW3 Hewitt 0.8 N.

0303 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 SSW Wautoma           44.03N 89.30W
06/10/2026  M41 MPH          Waushara           WI   AWOS

            AWOS station KY50 Wautoma Airport.

0305 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 WSW Rush Lake         43.91N 88.85W
06/10/2026  M47 MPH          Winnebago          WI   Mesonet

            Mesonet station WIRPN Ripon.

0308 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 ENE Bakerville        44.63N 90.18W
06/10/2026  M48 MPH          Wood               WI   AWOS

            AWOS station KMFI Marshfield Airport.

0309 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 W Omro                44.04N 88.76W
06/10/2026                   Winnebago          WI   Public

            Several large branches down.

0317 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 S Wittman Field       43.97N 88.55W
06/10/2026  M94 MPH          Winnebago          WI   ASOS

            ASOS station KOSH Oshkosh Airport.

0330 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SE Neenah             44.18N 88.45W
06/10/2026                   Winnebago          WI   Public

            Large tree down. Branches fell on house.
            Unknown house damage.

0340 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 W Appleton            44.26N 88.41W
06/10/2026                   Outagamie          WI   911 Call Center

            multiple Trees and power lines are down.

0340 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 SE Darboy             44.21N 88.34W
06/10/2026                   Calumet            WI   Amateur Radio

            Trees and power lines down at 10/114.

0345 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 SSE Greenville        44.26N 88.51W
06/10/2026  M45 MPH          Outagamie          WI   AWOS

            Measured at the Appleton International
            Airport.

0350 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 W Wausau              44.96N 89.65W
06/10/2026                   Marathon           WI   Trained Spotter

            Large trees down at John Muir Middle School.
            Time estimated from radar.

0400 PM     Rain             1 NNW Stratford         44.82N 90.09W
06/10/2026  M1.87 Inch       Marathon           WI   CO-OP Observer

            CO-OP Observer station STRW3 Stratford 1 NW.

0405 PM     Rain             6 SW Moon               44.70N 89.87W
06/10/2026  M2.51 Inch       Marathon           WI   Mesonet

            Mesonet station MNEW3 Moon 6 SW.

0413 PM     Flash Flood      1 ESE Wisconsin Rapids  44.39N 89.82W
06/10/2026                   Wood               WI   911 Call Center

            several inches of water on roads and cars
            are stalling out on city streets.

0433 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Bowler                  44.79N 88.61W
06/10/2026                   Shawano            WI   Trained Spotter

            in bowler trees and power line down.

0445 PM     Rain             5 W Stratford           44.81N 90.17W
06/10/2026  M2.21 Inch       Marathon           WI   Mesonet

            Mesonet station 7344D Stratford 4 W.

0445 PM     Rain             2 W Brokaw              45.03N 89.69W
06/10/2026  M2.07 Inch       Marathon           WI   Mesonet

            Mesonet station 1844D Brokaw 1 W.

0445 PM     Rain             3 ENE Spencer           44.77N 90.21W
06/10/2026  M1.57 Inch       Marathon           WI   Mesonet

            Mesonet station 1500D Spencer 3 E.

0450 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NNW Neopit            45.00N 88.84W
06/10/2026                   Menominee          WI   Tribal Leader

            Trees across the roads between Neopit and
            Langlade County line. Time estimated by
            radar.

0512 PM     Rain             1 SW Ashwaubenon        44.47N 88.07W
06/10/2026  M2.00 Inch       Brown              WI   Public

0610 PM     Rain             7 E Knowlton            44.69N 89.55W
06/10/2026  M2.85 Inch       Marathon           WI   Public

            Amount since 8am today.

&&

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>