Small Craft Advisory 82, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
129 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A period of moderate to heavy rainfall is expected through
  Saturday, with the heaviest rain occurring tonight. A 40 to 60
  percent chance of rainfall exceeding 2 inches exists roughly
  south of a Marshfield to Appleton line.

- A Beach Hazards Statement and corresponding Small Craft Advisory
  has been issued late tonight into Saturday evening for areas
  south of Algoma.

- A quieter and drier weather pattern will settle into the region
  early to mid next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 129 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Heavy Rainfall Potential through Saturday: Rain associated with a
low pressure system emerging from the Plains is having issues
making steady progress into the area given the abundant amount of
low level moisture being pumped in from a high pressure system
over western Quebec. The initial surge of moisture should moisten
the low levels through this afternoon, which will set the stage
for steadier rain to make its way through the region later this
afternoon and into tonight. This rain will last through Saturday
when the low tracks to our south, coming to an end Saturday night.
The heaviest rain still looks to be just to our south coincident
with the best instability and frontogenesis. While there are still
some models that edge the heavier rain into the southern CWA, the
general trend and consensus is to keep the higher amounts to our
south. The southern solution also looks to be the most reasonable
given we mostly miss out on instability from this event, which is
needed to produce the heavier rain showers.

Quiet Weather Next Week: Looking ahead to next week, shortwave
energy originating from the western North American trough will
slowly migrate east from the central Plains to the southern Great
Lakes and eventually the east coast. Therefore, it appears that
most of the rain will remain south of the region. Otherwise,
strong high pressure over northern Ontario and northern Quebec
looks to keep ample dry air across northern Wisconsin which should
keep next week mostly dry.

With high pressure maintaining dry and quiet conditions for the
bulk of the extended period, temperatures will be undergoing a
slow warming trend. Daytime highs ranging from the low to mid 60s
on Monday will gradually warm each day, reaching the low to mid
70s by Thursday and next Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Low pressure will be slowly moving towards the area from the west
over the next 24 hours. The initial band of rain will affect the
central and north-central TAF sites early this afternoon before
moving east towards east-central Wisconsin. Steadier rain is then
expected to track through later this afternoon into early this
evening and continue through Saturday. CIGs early this afternoon
currently range between VFR and MVFR as the low level moisture is
starting to take root across the region. CIGs should eventually
continue to fall and settle in at IFR by tonight and continue into
Saturday. Reduced visibilities to high end IFR to low end MVFR
are likely in the heavier downpours. Thunderstorms will likely
remain south of the TAF sites, but a few storms could reach as far
north as KATW and KMTW. East winds will likely be rather steady
in the 5-10 kt range with gusts to 15 kts for much of the TAF
period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 129 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Gusty easterly winds ahead of and during the passage of the
aforementioned low pressure system will build wave heights
significantly on Lake Michigan from late tonight through
Saturday evening. This will create hazardous conditions for small
craft and increase the risk for dangerous rip currents along
beaches south of Algoma. Given the higher certainty will issue a
Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazards Statement for the Lake
Michigan nearshore and beaches south of Algoma through Saturday
evening.

Another round of hazardous marine conditions looks likely Sunday
through Monday due to gusty northeast winds 20 to 30 kts and high
waves.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through Saturday
evening for WIZ040-050.
&&

DISCUSSION.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......Kurimski
MARINE.........Kurimski

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
121 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-190630-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
121 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Moderate to heavy rainfall is likely over central and east-
central Wisconsin this afternoon through tonight. Localized
flooding will be possible. There will also be a chance of
thunderstorms tonight, but severe weather is not expected.

There will be an increased risk of rip currents along Lake
Michigan beaches south of Algoma late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The chance of thunderstorms will continue on Saturday morning over
east-central Wisconsin. The risk of severe weather is low.

There will be an increased risk of rip currents along Lake
Michigan beaches south of Algoma through Saturday afternoon.

The rip current risk will also be high from Sunday into Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to report any flooding or rainfalls over 1
inch to the National Weather Service in Green Bay.

LMZ521-522-541>543-190630-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
121 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms tonight. The thunderstorms may
pose a hazard for mariners.

Conditions hazardous to small craft are expected south of Algoma
late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Chances of thunderstorms continue into Saturday morning. The
thunderstorms may pose a hazard for mariners.

Conditions hazardous to small craft are expected at times from
Saturday through Monday.

MPC