Small Craft Advisory 76, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1030 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions for the rest of the Labor Day weekend. Patchy fog
  is possible late tonight into Monday morning.

- Next chance of rain and storms (60-80%) late Monday night
  through late Tuesday night. Strong storms are possible Tuesday
  and Tuesday night.

- Gusty winds and high waves Tuesday through Wednesday will likely
  result in hazardous conditions for small craft and an increased
  risk of rip currents at Lake Michigan beaches.

- Above normal temperatures continue into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Remainder of Labor Day Weekend...The prevailing high pressure and
upper-level ridging will keep dry conditions in place for this
forecast period. The only minor impact would be the potential for
patchy fog to develop late tonight into Monday morning, but the
potential for dense fog is low. Temperatures will remain above
normal with overnight lows in the mid 50s to low 60s, and highs on
Labor Day ranging from the upper 70s to low 80s.

Late Monday through Late Tuesday Precip/Storm Potential...The ridge
and high pressure will gradually depart late Monday as return flow
sets up ahead of an approaching system/cold front. Ahead of the
front, a southwesterly LLJ (35-45 kts) and increasing WAA will aid
in rain showers and a few elevated storms starting late Monday night
in north-central WI and spreading/moving east/southeast across the
remainder of the forecast area through late Tuesday night. It
appears the majority of the precipitation will be pre-frontal. Given
the greater instability, stronger sheer, steeper mid-level lapse
rates will be associated with the cold front, this leads to a
conditional risk of strong/severe storms sometime Tuesday
evening/night, but will depend on frontal timing and how much cloud
cover will be around from the morning precipitation. There will also
be an increased risk of heavy rainfall/downpours given PWATs will be
around 1.75-2.00 inches throughout the period. In addition to the
precip/storm potential, breezy south winds are expected on Tuesday
gusting to 20-25 mph, followed by westerly winds on Wednesday
gusting to 30-35 mph.

Rest of the forecast...Thursday and Friday are expected to be dry
with the next chance of showers/storms on Friday evening into
Saturday. Near normal temperatures are anticipated on Thursday, but
will rise above normal again Friday into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Middle to high clouds will continue to pass over the region at
times through tomorrow, resulting in VFR flying conditions
prevailing through the TAF period. Only exception will be with any
reductions in vsbys due to patchy fog development after midnight
tonight, though confidence was not high enough to include in the
TAF. Vsbys should still remain MVFR even if fog were to directly
impact a terminal. Next chances for rain then arrive from the west
toward the tail end of the TAF period (just beyond 06Z Tuesday)
for most locations, with the potential exception of RHI.

After becoming light and variable overnight, winds shift to the
south late Monday morning, increasing to around 5 to 10 knots
during the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Southerly winds will increase on Tuesday and result in
increased waves on the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan and Green
Bay. Winds will veer west on Wednesday and remain gusty. During
these periods, conditions will likely be hazardous to small craft.
There will also be an increased risk of rip currents mainly Tuesday
into Wednesday morning, or until winds turn offshore. Small Craft
Advisories and Beach Hazards Statements will be needed.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION.....Kruk
AVIATION.......Goodin
MARINE.........Kruk

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
249 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-072000-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
249 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Sunday

There is a chance of thunderstorms from Tuesday morning through
late Tuesday night. Stronger storms are possible Tuesday evening
and night.

There is an increased risk of rip current at Lake Michigan beaches
Tuesday into Wednesday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed tonight.

LMZ521-522-541>543-072000-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
249 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Sunday

There is a chance of thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night. Any
storm would pose a hazard to mariners.

Hazardous conditions for small craft are likely Tuesday and
Wednesday on Lake Michigan and Green Bay, due to high waves and
gusty south/southwest winds on Tuesday veering west on Wednesday.

Kruk