Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
310 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms expected (60-90% chance) this afternoon.
  Storms are not expected to be severe but some brief gusty winds
  and small hail are possible.

- Another round of showers and storms are expected for Wednesday
  (80-100% chance). Potential for organized severe weather remains
  low, but a few strong storms with small hail and gusty winds may
  occur. Moderate to heavy rainfall will have a 60- 80% chance of
  exceeding 1 inch of rain.

- Below average temperatures in the 60s and 70s through the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

A period of active weather is expected through the middle of the
week as a pair of shortwaves move through the area. Additional
rain chances then arrive towards the middle of the week as well.

Today...
A shortwave trough will cross the region today, bringing
a wide area of rain and a few storms into the area for the
afternoon and evening. Modest instability near the surface
combined with upper support from the shortwave will support
scattered convection, but with a lack of shear more organized
storms are unlikely. Therefore would expect most storms to be
short-lived and pulse-like. Although this setup will not favor
severe storms, given the relatively low freezing levels and decent
mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km, would expect some small hail
to be possible within any storms.

Wednesday...
Another, stronger shortwave drops towards the region on
Wednesday, bringing another round of showers and storms into the
region. The track of the accompanying surface low remains somewhat
variable, but most mid to long range guidance does keep it south
of the region. This would keep the warm front and more unstable
air and moisture south of the area, and greatly limit the overall
severe potential in northeastern Wisconsin. That said, some
overrunning moisture from the surface warm front combined with
surface heating and plenty of shear will still support
convection, and given the strong winds through the lower levels
and relatively cold airmass aloft, some isolated damaging winds
and hail will still be possible. Best potential for any stronger
storms will be from central to east-central Wisconsin. Heavy
rainfall will also be possible with any convection, with
probabilistic guidance continuing to paint out around 60-80%
chance for at least an inch of rain and some modest 10-25% chance
of two inches. There is a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall
stretching across central to east-central Wisconsin and southwards
as well.

Rest of the forecast period...Another brief round of scattered
(20-30% chance) showers will be possible on Thursday, driven
primarily by strong surface heating. Convective support will be
relatively minimal, so expect impacts from any scattered showers
to be minimal. Behind this

The only chance for more widespread active weather would be Saturday
night into Sunday, when another larger system enters the Midwest
to western Great Lakes. However, as of this forecast cycle this
system tracks south of the area, which would keep much of the
convective potential to our south and may limit how much rain we
ultimately see. Still, will be something to keep an eye on if you
have plans to travel towards Illinois over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 957 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

SCT showers and isolated storms remain possible through tonight,
though have opted to withhold any PROB30 mentions for thunder due
to low confidence. Brief gusty outflow winds and drops in vsbys
may accompany any showers or storms if they were to move over a
terminal. Otherwise, prevailing west/southwest winds will continue
to subside overnight with the loss of daytime mixing.

Cigs will continue to lower and thicken ahead of an approaching
cold front Tuesday morning, eventually bringing MVFR flying
conditions to the western sites by around 14 to 16Z. Another
round of scattered showers/storms will then be possible Tuesday
afternoon and evening.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION.....Uhlmann
AVIATION.......Goodin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
315 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-170815-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
315 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered storms are expected this afternoon and evening. These
storms are not expected to become severe but may produce brief
small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Thunderstorms return Wednesday afternoon and evening. A few
stronger storms will be possible at times, mainly across central
to east-central Wisconsin. Hail and damaging winds are possible,
along with heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter are asked to report any hail that occurs with
thunderstorms this afternoon.

LMZ521-522-541>543-170815-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
315 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening.
Any thunderstorms will pose a hazard to mariners.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There are chances of thunderstorms again on Wednesday and at times
over the weekend. Any thunderstorms will pose a hazard to
mariners.

Uhlmann

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1045 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

WIZ030-035-036-161700-
Wood WI-Marathon WI-Portage WI-
1045 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EASTERN WOOD...WESTERN PORTAGE
AND CENTRAL MARATHON COUNTIES THROUGH NOON CDT...

At 1044 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Rib Mountain to near
Mosinee to 11 miles northwest of Stevens Point to near Wisconsin
Rapids to 6 miles southwest of New Rome. Movement was northeast at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Wausau, Wisconsin Rapids, Weston, Rib Mountain, Mosinee, and Lake
  Wazeecha around 1050 AM CDT.
  Stevens Point around 1110 AM CDT.
  Whiting around 1120 AM CDT.
  Bevent around 1140 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Milladore, Big Eau
Pleine County Park, Moon, Little Chicago, Park Ridge, Hamburg,
Coddington, North Star, Blenker, and Dancy.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4512 8990 4512 8923 4424 8954 4425 9003
TIME...MOT...LOC 1544Z 243DEG 14KT 4488 8964 4472 8971 4459 8977 4442
8984 4416 8995

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Eckberg

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1155 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

WIZ031-037-038-161730-
Shawano WI-Outagamie WI-Waupaca WI-
1155 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN WAUPACA...
NORTHWESTERN OUTAGAMIE AND EASTERN SHAWANO COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM
CDT...

At 1155 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles southwest of Clintonville, or 19 miles northeast of Waupaca,
moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible. Hail may accumulate on roadways causing hazardous
         travel.

The strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Clintonville around 1220 PM CDT. Embarrass and Navarino Wildlife
  Area around 1225 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this strong thunderstorm include
Fitzgerald Corners, Sugar Bush, Bear Creek, Buckbee, Deer Creek
Wildlife Area, Adams Beach, Belle Plaine, Leeman and Wolf River
Bottoms Wildlife Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4468 8881 4482 8858 4459 8835 4445 8881
      4460 8894
TIME...MOT...LOC 1655Z 239DEG 13KT 4455 8882

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KS