Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
102 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening (2-7 PM),
  bringing damaging winds, large hail, and a brief tornado threat
  to central, parts of north-central, and east-central Wisconsin.

- Another round of severe weather is possible Thursday afternoon
  and evening, mainly over east-central Wisconsin.

- Heavy rain is an increasing hazard through Thursday. Localized
  flooding is expected where heavy rain occurs.

- Dense fog will continue to pose a hazard to mariners along the
  Lake Michigan shoreline.

- Cooler, drier air arrives for the weekend, with intermittent
  rain chances through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 102 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a potent
northern Plains trough is lifting northeast into south-central
Canada, pushing a cold front east across western Minnesota. An
effective warm front extends from near Minneapolis to Fond Du Lac
early this afternoon, establishing a volatile and highly unstable
warm sector across southern Wisconsin. Even further south, an
shortwave impulse and associated convection over Iowa and
southeast Minnesota is primed to track northeastward, providing
large- scale ascent later today.

Severe Thunderstorm Potential This Afternoon/Evening: Destabilization
is expected this afternoon as this mornings thunderstorm activity
has exited. Extremely strong instability resides south of the
warm front, where surface- based CAPE values are ramping into the
3000-4000 J/kg range, driven by surface temperatures warming into
the middle 80s and dewpoints pooling into the middle 70s. Steep
mid- level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km and downdraft CAPE in excess of
1000 J/kg point to a volatile airmass highly favorable for severe
weather. As a shortwave impulse tracking out of Iowa provides
deep layer forcing, storms are expected to gradually intensify as
they shift northeastward between 3 PM and 8 PM. Convective
evolution carries some uncertainty, as high- resolution guidance
splits between a consolidated cold pool bowing system and discrete
clusters or broken line segments. Damaging wind gusts and large
hail are the primary threats. However, an isolated tornado threat
cannot be ruled out near the effective warm front across central
to east- central Wisconsin where low- level flow is locally
backed. The greatest severe threat is expected south of a
Rhinelander to Manitowoc line where a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is
in effect.

Some CAMS indicate develop additional thunderstorms along the cold
front due to move across the region late this evening. While
expectation is that the atmosphere will be worked over thereby
limiting buoyancy potential, an isolated strong storm will be
possible. The threat of storms will diminish by early overnight.

Thursday Severe Potential: The main surface cold front will
settle downstate overnight. After a lull Thursday morning, a very
dynamic shortwave trough will drive a surface low pressure system
northeastward across the region Thursday afternoon into early
Thursday evening. Model spread remains rather large regarding the
exact track of the surface low, leading to below normal forecast
confidence. The general consensus navigates the surface low
across east-central Wisconsin late Thursday afternoon. Areas south
of this track will possess the highest severe weather threat.
Instability will be substantially lower than today, maxing out
near 1000 J/kg, but wind fields will be considerably stronger.
Given the robust wind fields aloft, significant instability will
not be required, just sufficient for severe weather. Damaging
winds and an isolated tornado will be possible from the lows
triple point southward, placing east-central Wisconsin at the
greatest risk for severe weather. Sfc highs will range from the
mid 70s to low 80s.

Friday Wind and Marine Impacts: A cooler and drier weather
pattern returns on Friday in the wake of the departing surface
low as a longwave trough establishes itself from Hudson Bay into
the western Great Lakes. A tight pressure gradient on the southern
periphery of the trough will foster breezy conditions across the
entire area. Sfc wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph are expected over
land, and these strong winds will likely necessitate a Small Craft
Advisory across the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan and Green
Bay due to building waves.

Weekend and Extended Outlook: Spotty showers and storms will
linger over north-central Wisconsin Thursday night behind the main
surface low, but dry conditions return for most locations by
Friday morning. Saturday looks to be the more active day of the
weekend as a secondary cold front drops south. Instability will
moderate to around 500-700 J/kg by Saturday afternoon, which when
combined with mid-level wind fields of 30-50 kts, will support a
few storms capable of gusty winds. Behind this second front, a
distinct cooling trend takes hold. Temperatures in the low 70s to
low 80s through Saturday will fall back into the mid 60s to mid
70s from Sunday through Tuesday. The next appreciable chance for
widespread rainfall will arrive on Tuesday as a northern stream
shortwave digs into the western Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Main forecast challenges are timing additional rounds of convection
this afternoon and evening as well as low clouds/fog preceding and
following. Most favorable timing for thunderstorms appears to be in
the 21-02Z timeframe. Any storms are capable of winds to 60 mph and
large hail, as well as frequent lightning. Prior to the storms,
stubborn IFR clouds at the beginning of the TAF should scatter out
quickly, except likely lingering into mid-afternoon at MTW. Tonight,
lower clouds and fog may redevelop, but confidence is low on flight
categories and duration. Maintained MVFR cigs/fog for now. Expect
these to dissipate after sunrise on Thursday.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday morning for WIZ022-040-
050.
&&

DISCUSSION.....MPC
AVIATION.......MQT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
102 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-111815-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
102 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening (2-7 PM),
bringing damaging winds, large hail, and a brief tornado threat
to central, parts of north-central, and east-central Wisconsin.
Localized heavy rain and flooding could become an issue for areas
where repeated rounds of thunderstorms occur.

Dangerous swimming conditions are expected to develop along Lake
Michigan beaches from late afternoon through late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rain are
expected Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening over northeast
Wisconsin and east-central WI. Localized flooding could occur.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to report any wind damage, hail, or
flooding to the National Weather Service in Green Bay.

LMZ521-522-541>543-111815-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
102 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Additional rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms will occur
this afternoon into this evening. Any thunderstorm could pose a
hazard to mariners.

Areas of fog may be dense along the Lake Michigan shoreline
through early this evening. A marine dense fog advisory remains in
effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

Additional thunderstorms are expected Thursday afternoon through
Thursday evening. Any thunderstorm could pose a hazard to
mariners.

Hazardous conditions to small craft are possible on Friday.

MPC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
828 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

WIZ020-030-031-035>037-101400-
Portage WI-Menominee WI-Shawano WI-Marathon WI-Wood WI-Waupaca WI-
828 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN MENOMINEE...
PORTAGE...NORTHERN WAUPACA...SOUTHEASTERN MARATHON...WESTERN SHAWANO
AND WOOD COUNTIES UNTIL 9 AM CDT...

At 828 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from 10 miles east of Wittenberg to near
Pittsville, or extending from 19 miles west of Shawano to 12 miles
west of Wisconsin Rapids, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Stevens Point, Wisconsin Rapids, Marshfield, Clintonville, Whiting,
  Bevent, Wittenberg, Amherst, Pittsville, Embarrass, Lake Wazeecha,
  Neopit, Babcock, Keshena, Plover, Stockton, Nekoosa and Knowlton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4468 9023 4480 8944 4485 8922 4503 8859
      4459 8871 4459 8874 4447 8874 4426 9014
TIME...MOT...LOC 1327Z 286DEG 20KT 4482 8896 4462 8918 4445 9005

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
841 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

WIZ005-010>013-019>021-073-074-101500-
Oneida WI-Southern Marinette County WI-Northern Oconto County WI-
Menominee WI-Forest WI-Langlade WI-Southern Oconto County WI-
Vilas WI-Northern Marinette County WI-Florence WI-
841 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MARINETTE...
NORTHEASTERN MENOMINEE...FLORENCE...FOREST...EASTERN LANGLADE...
EASTERN ONEIDA...SOUTHEASTERN VILAS AND NORTHERN OCONTO COUNTIES
UNTIL 10 AM CDT...

At 841 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from 12 miles southwest of Headwaters
Wilderness to near Neopit, or extending from 15 miles east of
Rhinelander to 19 miles northwest of Shawano, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 to 50 mph and half inch size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

The strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Crandon, Carter, Gardner Dam Scout Camp, Neopit, Woodlawn and White
  Lake around 845 AM CDT. Big Smokey Falls around 850 AM CDT.
  McCaslin Mountain Natural Area, North Otter Creek Natural Area,
  South Branch and Headwaters Wilderness around 855 AM CDT. Mountain
  around 900 AM CDT. Bear Paw Scout Camp around 905 AM CDT. Popple
  River around 915 AM CDT. Goodman and Tipler around 920 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this strong thunderstorm include
Townsend, Boulder Lake Campground, Boot Lake Campground, Gagen,
Langlade, Three Lakes, Choate, Middle Village, Starks and Monico.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4606 8890 4599 8866 4599 8867 4592 8810
      4587 8807 4581 8813 4575 8788 4568 8778
      4566 8783 4560 8777 4556 8783 4550 8779
      4536 8789 4535 8789 4537 8787 4535 8781
      4512 8788 4494 8883 4525 8883 4574 8937
TIME...MOT...LOC 1340Z 249DEG 35KT 4571 8914 4529 8862 4501 8877

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
858 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

WIZ020-021-030-031-035>038-073-074-101500-
Southern Marinette County WI-Northern Oconto County WI-Waupaca WI-
Portage WI-Menominee WI-Outagamie WI-Shawano WI-Marathon WI-Wood
WI-Southern Oconto County WI-
858 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL
MARINETTE...SOUTHEASTERN MENOMINEE...PORTAGE...WAUPACA...SOUTHEASTERN
MARATHON...OUTAGAMIE...SHAWANO...EASTERN WOOD AND SOUTHERN OCONTO
COUNTIES UNTIL 10 AM CDT...

At 858 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from over Keshena to over Whiting, or
extending from 6 miles north of Shawano to over Stevens Point, moving
east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

The strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Stevens Point, Keshena and Whiting around 900 AM CDT. Legend Lake
  around 905 AM CDT. Amherst around 920 AM CDT. Gillett around 935 AM
  CDT. Embarrass, Clintonville, Navarino Wildlife Area and Pound
  around 955 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this strong thunderstorm include
Northland, Caroline, Red River, College Of Menominee Nation,
Leopolis, Park Ridge, Polonia, Plover, Jordan and Split Rock.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4426 9003 4472 8992 4513 8789 4468 8809
      4468 8813 4467 8818 4467 8823 4468 8823
      4468 8825 4466 8825 4466 8824 4459 8825
      4459 8819 4444 8819 4435 8823
TIME...MOT...LOC 1357Z 251DEG 26KT 4486 8860 4463 8905 4449 8955

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
950 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

WIZ021-031-037>039-048-049-073-074-101545-
Brown WI-Southern Marinette County WI-Northern Oconto County WI-
Waupaca WI-Winnebago WI-Calumet WI-Outagamie WI-Shawano WI-
Southern Oconto County WI-
950 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN MARINETTE...
NORTHERN CALUMET...SOUTHEASTERN WAUPACA...NORTHEASTERN WINNEBAGO...
OUTAGAMIE...EASTERN SHAWANO...BROWN AND SOUTHERN OCONTO COUNTIES
UNTIL 1045 AM CDT...

At 950 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from 13 miles south of Pound to 9 miles west
of Menasha, or extending from 24 miles northwest of Bay Shore Park to
11 miles west of Appleton, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 to 45 mph mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

The strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Pulaski and Black Creek around 955 AM CDT. Appleton, Menasha and
  Northern Lake Winnebago around 1000 AM CDT. Little Chute and
  Kimberly around 1005 AM CDT. Kaukauna, Darboy, Bellevue Town and
  Long Tail Point Light around 1010 AM CDT. Brillion around 1030 AM
  CDT.

Other locations impacted by this strong thunderstorm include Chicago
Corners, Murphy Corner, Oneida, Mackville, Anston, Stiles,
Flintville, Abrams, South Chase and Chase.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4427 8910 4461 8831 4501 8833 4516 8772
      4511 8766 4509 8759 4514 8760 4512 8754
      4493 8765 4491 8778 4471 8793 4464 8794
      4469 8774 4433 8777 4433 8789 4424 8789
      4424 8804 4414 8804
TIME...MOT...LOC 1450Z 290DEG 27KT 4491 8810 4454 8821 4422 8861

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JM