Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
154 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible for the rest of
  the afternoon and early evening. A few storms could become
  strong to severe with damaging winds and hail, especially in
  central WI and the western Fox Valley between 4 pm and 8 pm.

- Conditions hazardous to small craft are expected tonight for
  the Lake Michigan nearshore waters south of Sturgeon Bay.
  Boaters should exercise caution on the bay of Green Bay this
  evening.

- There is a high risk for rip currents tonight for beaches along
  Lake Michigan in Manitowoc County.

- Mainly dry weather with above normal temperatures and low
  relative humidity for the next week, with highs mainly in the
  middle 70s to middle 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

A back door cold front over northern WI will shift south across
the region this afternoon and early evening. Scattered showers
have already developed along the boundary. CAMs continue to show
thunderstorms initiating along the boundary by around 20z,
spreading south through the rest of afternoon, then exiting our
southern counties in the early evening. The arrival of cooler and
drier air behind the cold front and E-NE winds off Lake Michigan
will limit instability in northern and eastern WI, with better
instability (SBCAPE 1000-1500) expected over central WI and the
western Fox Valley. This is also the area where DCAPE calues are
currently highest (800-1000 j/kg). With Effective bulk shear
increasing to around 30 kts near the cold front, ingredients are
in place for a few strong to severe storms, especially in central
WI and the western Fox Valley. Damaging winds and hail will be the
primary threats.

The front should shift south of the region early this evening,
bringing a period of gusty northeast winds to the Fox Valley and
lakeshore areas, a period of high waves to our southernmost Lake
Michigan marine zones, and a high threat of rip currents for
Manitowoc County beaches. A Beach Hazards Statement has been
issued from this evening through early Thursday morning for
Manitowoc County.

Canadian high pressure and an Omega Block pattern will bring
a long stretch of mainly dry weather. Right now, only small
precipitation chances are expected with a back door cold front
late Sunday into Sunday night.

Ttemperatures will average well above normal through much of the
period, with highs mainly in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Low afternoon
relative humidity could lead to elevated fire weather conditions,
but green-up continues across northern WI and pine fuels have
become less volatile, so impacts may not be as significant as they
would have been a couple weeks ago.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

A cold front was generating scattered showers across far northern
WI early this afternoon. As this front shifts south this
afternoon, showers and scattered thunderstorms will develop along
it. a few of the storms could become strong to severe, with
damaging winds and hail the primary threats. Most of this
activity should shift south of the region by early evening. Have
added TEMPO groups for storms at AUW/CWA/ATW, where the better
moisture and instability will be present, but only mentioned
Prob30 for the TAF sites farther north and east. After the storms
end, expect skies to clear.

As the front passes by early this evening, gusty northeast winds
are likely to develop for a 3-6 hour period. Gusts up to 25 kts
will be possible over the northeast WI terminals, especially at
KGRB and KMTW. The stronger gusts should subside overnight.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Beach Hazards Statement from 9 PM CDT this evening through late
tonight for WIZ050.
&&

DISCUSSION.....Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
200 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-281900-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
200 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Rest of this Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are possible for the rest of this
afternoon and early evening, except across far northern and
eastern Wisconsin. A few storms could become strong to severe with
damaging winds and hail, especially over central Wisconsin and
the western Fox Valley between 4 pm and 8 pm.

There is a high risk for rip currents tonight for beaches along
Lake Michigan in Manitowoc County.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to report any wind damage or hail to the
National Weather Service in Green Bay.

LMZ521-522-541>543-281900-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
200 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms are possible for the rest of this
afternoon. Any thunderstorms would pose a hazard to mariners.

Gusty northeast winds will bring conditions hazardous to small
craft tonight to the Lake Michigan nearshore waters south of
Sturgeon Bay. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect. The gusty winds
also mean boaters should exercise caution on the bay of Green Bay
this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

Kieckbusch

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
436 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     Hail             3 NW Wausau             44.98N 89.67W
05/27/2026  E0.88 Inch       Marathon           WI   Public

0412 PM     Hail             1 WSW Wausau            44.96N 89.64W
05/27/2026  M1.00 Inch       Marathon           WI   Trained Spotter

0415 PM     Hail             3 NW Rib Mountain State 44.95N 89.72W
05/27/2026  M1.00 Inch       Marathon           WI   Public

0416 PM     Hail             1 SSE Wausau            44.95N 89.62W
05/27/2026  M1.50 Inch       Marathon           WI   Broadcast Media

            Reported at WSAW-TV.

0416 PM     Hail             2 N Wausau              44.99N 89.63W
05/27/2026  M1.00 Inch       Marathon           WI   Trained Spotter

0417 PM     Hail             1 NW Rib Mountain State 44.93N 89.68W
05/27/2026  E1.25 Inch       Marathon           WI   Public

            Report from mPING: Half Dollar (1.25 in.).

0419 PM     Hail             3 NW Rib Mountain State 44.96N 89.69W
05/27/2026  M1.00 Inch       Marathon           WI   Public

0419 PM     Hail             1 SSE Wausau            44.95N 89.62W
05/27/2026  M1.00 Inch       Marathon           WI   Broadcast Media

            Quarter size hail at the Wausau Downtown
            Airport.

0420 PM     Hail             1 E Wausau              44.96N 89.61W
05/27/2026  M1.50 Inch       Marathon           WI   Trained Spotter

0420 PM     Hail             2 NW Schofield          44.92N 89.62W
05/27/2026  E0.75 Inch       Marathon           WI   Public

            Report from mPING: Dime (0.75 in.).

0422 PM     Hail             2 W Rib Mountain        44.90N 89.71W
05/27/2026  E0.50 Inch       Marathon           WI   Public

            Report from mPING: Half-inch (0.50 in.).

0425 PM     Hail             1 SW Schofield          44.89N 89.60W
05/27/2026  M1.00 Inch       Marathon           WI   Public

0429 PM     Hail             1 SW Rib Mountain       44.90N 89.70W
05/27/2026  E0.50 Inch       Marathon           WI   Public

            Report from mPING: Half-inch (0.50 in.).

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
516 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NW Mosinee            44.80N 89.71W
05/27/2026                   Marathon           WI   Public

            Several trees down at River Park in Mosinee.
            Time estimated by radar. Report from
            WSAW-TV.

&&