Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
123 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot this afternoon with record to near-record temperatures in
  the upper 80s to lower 90s.

- 50 to 70% chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
  and this evening, with some strong to marginally severe storms
  possible with large hail and strong winds.

- Isolated thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon across
  central Wisconsin. An isolated storm could become severe with
  large hail and damaging winds.

- Above normal temperatures for the next week, with highs mainly
  in the upper 70s and 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Backdoor cold front/composite lake breeze off Superior is slowly
dropping across Upper Michigan into northern WI. Ahead of the front
it is hot and dry with early afternoon temperatures already into
the mid to upper 80s. Highs will reach the lower 90s, so could
see records in some locations. Record high for GRB today is 92
set in 2018.

Despite the heat, dewpoints are lagging the models which is
leading to MLCAPEs only up to 200J/kg thus far while SBCAPE is
over 1000J/kg. 18z sounding at GRB is quite dry through 700-600mb.
Overall think the drier air is why some models have backed off of
coverage and intensity of storms this afternoon and evening. CI
most likely will be closer to the front where there is currently a
batch of developing cu from Oneida into Marinette counties.
Expect isolated to scattered showers and storms to eventually form
in this area, then spread/expand as front moves southward into
this evening. Dry air and DCAPE over 1000 do lead to downburst
winds as the primary hazard. For storms that get taller, CAPE in
the hail growth zone also results in hail as hazard. Overall the
forecast is pretty similar, but the coverage of storms does look a
bit less.

Once the front slides through north to south this evening, winds
turn northeast and cooler/moisture airmass arrives. Could be fog
late tonight, especially where showers and storms are most
prevalent into this evening. Post frontal airmass with gradient
northeast winds on Wednesday will not be as toasty. Trimmed highs
from NBM and went more with consensus of models/ensembles. Result
will be upper 60s near Lake Michigan, upper 70s/near 80 Fox Valley
and northern WI, and mid 80s over central WI. Greatest potential
for storms, mainly non-severe, on Wednesday will be across central
WI.

High pressure then builds in the rest of the week into the coming
weekend. Dry weather is expected. Other than Thursday when temperatures
will be around normal, readings will push above normal into early
next week, with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. The warmest day
will be Friday. Despite the Canadian high settling overhead, temps
at night even in northern WI will remain above 40, so no frost issues.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

A cold front will sag south across the area this afternoon, with
scattered showers and thunderstorms developing by late afternoon,
and continuing across central and east-central Wisconsin through
the evening. Kept TEMPO groups for mostly likely 4-hour period
for thunderstorms for the TAF sites. Dry weather is then expected
overnight, though where storms occur some IFR/MVFR fog is possible.

South to southwest winds will gust to around 15 kts at times
this afternoon, but will turn northeast in the wake of the frontal
passage this afternoon/evening. Light winds below 10 kts are then
expected overnight. NE winds around 10 kts are expected Wednesday.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION.....JLA
AVIATION.......JLA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
133 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-271845-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
133 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening.
A few storms could become strong to severe with large hail and
damaging winds.

Record to near-record temperatures are expected this afternoon,
with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday

Isolated thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon across
central Wisconsin. An isolated storm could become strong to
severe with large hail and damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to report any wind damage or hail to the
National Weather Service in Green Bay.

LMZ521-522-541>543-271845-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
133 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

A few thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and this evening.
Any thunderstorms would pose a hazard to mariners.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

JLA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
306 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

WIZ011-019>021-073-074-262100-
Menominee WI-Forest WI-Langlade WI-Northern Oconto County WI-
Southern Marinette County WI-Southern Oconto County WI-
306 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN MARINETTE...
NORTHEASTERN MENOMINEE...SOUTHERN FOREST...NORTHEASTERN LANGLADE AND
NORTHERN OCONTO COUNTIES UNTIL 4 PM CDT...

At 306 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of strong
thunderstorms 5 miles east of Bear Paw Scout Camp, or 30 miles
northeast of Shawano, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

The strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Bear Paw Scout Camp around 310 PM CDT. Pound around 350 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these strong thunderstorms include
Crooked Lake, White Potato Lake, Hickory Corners, Klondike, Beaver
and Coleman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4533 8914 4547 8908 4546 8905 4555 8905
      4557 8904 4538 8843 4538 8841 4520 8784
      4488 8835
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 309DEG 14KT 4516 8830

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
422 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

WIZ021-073-074-262230-
Northern Oconto County WI-Southern Marinette County WI-Southern
Oconto County WI-
422 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN MARINETTE AND
SOUTHERN OCONTO COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

At 422 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of strong
thunderstorms 7 miles south of Pound, or 20 miles west of Marinette,
moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

The strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Pound around 425 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these strong thunderstorms include Lena,
Coleman, Spruce, County Line, Cullen and Pensaukee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4494 8849 4519 8800 4500 8759 4493 8768
      4493 8774 4491 8778 4486 8778 4480 8784
      4468 8799 4482 8825 4485 8825 4485 8832
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 304DEG 12KT 4500 8803

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
451 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

WIZ018>021-030-031-262315-
Menominee WI-Langlade WI-Shawano WI-Marathon WI-Northern Oconto
County WI-Lincoln WI-
451 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT MENOMINEE...NORTHEASTERN
MARATHON...LINCOLN...LANGLADE...WESTERN SHAWANO AND NORTHERN OCONTO
COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 451 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles east of Antigo, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

The strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Antigo around 455 PM CDT. White Lake around 530 PM CDT. Neopit
  around 535 PM CDT. Gardner Dam Scout Camp around 545 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this strong thunderstorm include Polar,
Bryant, Neva, Phlox, Upper Bass Lake, Lake Noseum, Elton, Zoar,
Langlade and Boulder Lake Campground.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4512 9004 4531 9005 4534 9005 4537 9004
      4540 9004 4531 8831 4503 8847 4503 8849
      4500 8849 4477 8862 4503 9004
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 283DEG 15KT 4514 8903

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JG

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