Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Green Bay, WI

839 
WWUS83 KGRB 150029
RFWGRB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
729 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY...

.Southwest winds gusting 20 to 30 mph, low relative humidity, and
warm temperatures will lead to critical fire weather conditions
Friday afternoon and early evening across portions of far north
central Wisconsin. Fires could spread quickly in these
conditions.

WIZ005-150830-
/O.CON.KGRB.FW.W.0001.260515T1700Z-260516T0200Z/
Vilas-
729 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT
FRIDAY FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER 
FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

* AFFECTED AREA...Vilas.

* TIMING...From noon to 9 PM CDT Friday.

* WINDS...Southwest 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 25 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...In the lower 80s.

* IMPACTS...Fires will start easily and spread quickly in these 
  conditions. Outdoor burning should not be attempted. Visit the 
  Wisconsin DNR website at 
  apps.dnr.wi.gov/wisburn/#/BurnRestrictions and click on the 
  appropriate county to view current burning restrictions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning is issued when critical fire weather
conditions are either occurring now, or are imminent.  A
combination of strong winds, very low relative humidity, warm
temperatures and exceptionally dry fuels will create dangerous
wildland fire conditions.  Persons are urged to be careful with
any activities that could potentially lead to a wildland fire.
Campfires, outdoor grills, smoking materials, chain saws, and all-
terrain vehicles all have the potential to throw a spark and
ignite a dangerous and destructive fire.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this red flag warning.

&&

$$

615 
WWUS83 KGRB 150827
RFWGRB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
327 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TODAY...

.Southwest winds gusting 25 to 30 mph, low relative humidity, and
warm temperatures will lead to critical fire weather conditions 
this afternoon and early evening across portions of far north 
central Wisconsin. Fires could spread quickly in these conditions.

WIZ005-151630-
/O.CON.KGRB.FW.W.0001.260515T1700Z-260516T0200Z/
Vilas-
327 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT
THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
OVER FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

* AFFECTED AREA...Vilas.

* TIMING...From noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 12 to 16 mph with gusts to 25 to 30 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 23 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...In the lower 80s.

* IMPACTS...Fires will start easily and spread quickly in these 
  conditions. Outdoor burning should not be attempted. Visit the 
  Wisconsin DNR website at 
  apps.dnr.wi.gov/wisburn/#/BurnRestrictions and click on the 
  appropriate county to view current burning restrictions.

* ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...Critical fire weather conditions are
  also possible across northern Wisconsin on Saturday as relative
  humidity drops to 18-23 percent and west winds gust to around 25
  mph. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning is issued when critical fire weather
conditions are imminent. A combination of strong winds, very low 
relative humidity, warm temperatures and exceptionally dry fuels 
will create dangerous wildland fire conditions. Persons are urged 
to be careful with any activities that could potentially lead to a
wildland fire. Campfires, outdoor grills, smoking materials, 
chain saws, and all-terrain vehicles all have the potential to 
throw a spark and ignite a dangerous and destructive fire.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this red flag warning.

&&

$$
Kieckbusch

195 
WWUS83 KGRB 151604
RFWGRB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1104 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TODAY...

.Southwest winds gusting 25 to 35 mph, relative humidity down to
20 percent, and warm temperatures in the mid 80s will lead to 
critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and early evening 
across portions of far north central Wisconsin. Fires could spread
quickly in these conditions.

WIZ005-160200-
/O.CON.KGRB.FW.W.0001.260515T1700Z-260516T0200Z/
Vilas-
1104 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER FAR
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

* AFFECTED AREA...Vilas.

* TIMING...Until 9 PM CDT this evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 20 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...In the mid 80s.

* IMPACTS...Fires will start easily and spread quickly in these 
  conditions. Outdoor burning should not be attempted. Visit the 
  Wisconsin DNR website at 
  apps.dnr.wi.gov/wisburn/#/BurnRestrictions and click on the 
  appropriate county to view current burning restrictions.

* ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...Critical fire weather conditions are 
  also possible across northern Wisconsin on Saturday as 
  temperatures reach around 80, relative humidity drops to 17-22 
  percent, and west winds gust to around 25 mph.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning is issued when critical fire weather
conditions are imminent. A combination of strong winds, very low
relative humidity, warm temperatures and exceptionally dry fuels
will create dangerous wildland fire conditions. Persons are urged
to be careful with any activities that could potentially lead to
a wildland fire. Campfires, outdoor grills, smoking materials,
chain saws, and all-terrain vehicles all have the potential to
throw a spark and ignite a dangerous and destructive fire.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this red flag warning.

&&

$$

808 
WWUS83 KGRB 160215
RFWGRB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
915 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE DIMINISHED FOR THE NIGHT...

.Gusty winds have diminished and relative humidity has improved,
therefore the Red Flag Warning was allowed to expire.

WIZ005-160315-
/O.EXP.KGRB.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260516T0200Z/
Vilas-
915 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

Critical fire weather conditions are possible across northern 
Wisconsin on Saturday as temperatures reach around 80 degrees, 
relative humidity drops to 17 to 22 percent, and west winds gust 
to around 25 mph.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1126 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and isolated thunderstorms expected tonight into Friday.

- Gusty winds, warm temperatures, and low relative humidities will
  result in elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions at
  times from this afternoon through Saturday.

- Periods of heavy rainfall and strong to severe storms are
  possible Sunday night through Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

High pressure brought clear skies and light winds to the region
early this morning, with temperatures in the 30s to middle 40s.

High pressure will slide east today, but dry weather will persist
into the early evening, with only a gradual increase in high level
clouds expected. Temperatures will warm into the middle 60s to
lower 70s, except near Lake Michigan, where a lake/bay breeze
will keep readings in the middle 50s to lower 60s.

Strong return flow develops tonight, with a 35-50 knot low-level
jet ramping up WAA and advecting a moist air mass (PWATs 1.0-1.25
inch) into the region. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will
arrive in NC/C WI later this evening, but should have a tendency
to weaken as they shift into eastern WI overnight into Friday
morning. This trend will be due to a weakening low-level jet. The
showers will shift east of the region by late Friday morning, but
partial clearing and daytime heating should allow a few showers
and isolated storms to redevelop over the northwest half of the
forecast area during the late afternoon and evening. Lows tonight
will be in the 40s and lower 50s, with highs on Friday reaching
the middle 70s to lower 80s away from Lake Michigan. Cooler
readings in the upper 50s and lower 60s are expected along the
Lake Michigan shoreline due to onshore winds.

Models show a continued chance of showers and isolated storms
along a weak frontal boundary later Friday night into Saturday,
but would suspect that most of the area will be dry. A pattern
change to southwest flow aloft later in the weekend will bring an
increasingly moist and unstable air mass to the region. The
leading surge of moist and marginally unstable air will arrive on
Sunday, bringing a chance of showers and storms to mainly central
and east central WI in the afternoon. Low pressure developing in
the Central Plains on Sunday will lift northeast along a slow
moving cold front Sunday night through Monday night. This system
will generate periods of showers and storms, and locally heavy
rainfall, in an increasingly moist (PWATs of 1.2 to 1.7 inches)
and unstable air mass. Probabilistic forecasts show a 30-60%
chance of 1+ inch of rain from Sunday through Monday night, with a
10-30% chance of 2+ inches. Potential for severe thunderstorms
increases Sunday night, as increasing elevated instability and
steep mid-level lapse rates (7-8.5 C/km) support a threat of large
hail. Surface based instability increases to 1500-2500 j/kg
Monday afternoon and early evening, leading to potential for
surface-based severe storms as the cold front approaches the
forecast area. Temperatures should remain above normal during this
period.

Models have differing opinions on how quickly the cold front
will exit the region, with some as early as Monday night, and
others not until Tuesday night. Once the front clears the area,
drier weather and a return to near normal temperatures is
expected through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1126 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

High clouds will gradually increase from west to east through
this evening, with mid-level clouds and showers arriving in
north-central and central Wisconsin in the late evening, then
spreading east overnight. The showers will become less numerous as
they move into eastern Wisconsin, as a result of a weakening low-
level jet and a drier air mass. As the showers end, lower
ceilings will work their way in from the west Friday morning;
however, skies will start to scatter out at the same time as the
lower conditions work their way east.

Southeast to south winds will become a bit gusty later this
afternoon into tonight with gusts of 15-20 knots. LLWS is
expected to develop over north-central Wisconsin by late evening,
and spread southeast through the forecast area during the
overnight period. LLWS will then end Friday morning. South-
southwest surface winds of 15-25 knots are then expected on
Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Pine fuels have reached their peak volatility and fine fuels have
still not greened up over northern WI, so periods of dry and
windy weather will bring elevated to near-critical fire weather
conditions through Saturday.

Very low relative humidity (20-30%) is expected this afternoon,
but winds will only reach 8 to 15 mph.

A Fire Weather Watch has been posted for Vilas County Friday
afternoon and early evening. There is some uncertainty concerning
the dryness of fuels in NC WI, especially given expected rainfall
tonight. However, weather conditions should reach near-critical
levels, with highs near 80, RHs around 25% and southwest winds 15
mph gusting to 25-30 mph.

Dry air remains across northern WI on Saturday, with RHs dropping
to 18-25% along with west winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 to
25 mph.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
for WIZ005.
&&

DISCUSSION.....Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......Kurimski
FIRE WEATHER...Kieckbusch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
241 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-150745-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
241 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Low relative humidity will lead to elevated fire weather
conditions this afternoon.

There is slight chance of non-severe thunderstorms over north
central and central Wisconsin late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are expected
at times from Friday afternoon through Saturday, mainly over
northern Wisconsin.

There is a small chance of non-severe thunderstorms Friday
evening.

Potential for thunderstorms and heavy rainfall will increase late
this weekend through Monday night. There is a chance of severe
thunderstorms at times from Sunday night through Monday evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today or tonight.

LMZ521-522-541>543-150745-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
241 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Conditions hazardous to small craft are expected from Friday into
Saturday morning, and again Sunday night through Tuesday.

Thunderstorms will be possible from Sunday night into Monday
night.

Kieckbusch