Tornado Warning 22, NWS Goodland, KS

003 
WWUS53 KGLD 030146
SVSGLD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
746 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

NEC057-087-030215-
/O.CON.KGLD.TO.W.0022.000000T0000Z-260703T0215Z/
Hitchcock NE-Dundy NE-
746 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM MDT/915 PM CDT/
FOR NORTHWESTERN HITCHCOCK AND NORTHEASTERN DUNDY COUNTIES...

At 746 PM MDT/846 PM CDT/, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing
a tornado was located 9 miles north of Stratton, or 16 miles
northwest of Trenton, moving north at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and three inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northwestern Hitchcock and northeastern Dundy Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4023 10141 4035 10145 4035 10122 4029 10116
      4018 10126
TIME...MOT...LOC 0146Z 172DEG 11KT 4028 10129 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...3.00 IN

$$

Alexander

479 
WWUS53 KGLD 030200
SVSGLD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
800 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

NEC057-087-030207-
/O.CAN.KGLD.TO.W.0022.000000T0000Z-260703T0215Z/
Hitchcock NE-Dundy NE-
800 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN HITCHCOCK AND NORTHEASTERN
DUNDY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However, LARGE hail, 
gusty winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM
MDT/midnight CDT/ for southwestern Nebraska.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Goodland.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for
Hitchcock and Dundy counties

&&

LAT...LON 4023 10141 4035 10145 4035 10122 4029 10116
      4018 10126
TIME...MOT...LOC 0157Z 114DEG 15KT 4030 10135 

$$

Alexander

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
442 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures will persist. Highs in the 90s to low 100s
  are possible the next few days.

- Severe storms are again possible Thursday and Friday
  afternoons and evenings. Localized wind gusts up to 75 MPH,
  blowing dust, and hail up to 2 inches are the primary threats.

- Storms possible on Independence Day.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 441 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

A severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the entire CWA
until 5Z. Hail up to 2 inches and 75 MPH winds leading to
blowing dust are the main hazards.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 140 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Over the next couple of days, we will be sitting under southwesterly
flow as a high sits over the east central CONUS and a low sits
around the Great Basin region. This will allow shortwaves to ride
the jet and cause disturbances in the CWA. This will lead to hot and
dry conditions at the surface with chances at storms with any
shortwave troughs.

Today looks similar to yesterday but with a little less mid-level
forcing for the storms. We are seeing some midday virga over the
eastern CWA, which may inhibit convection in this area later today.
The storms tomorrow look to fire off the dryline 20-23Z. The dryline
looks to be northeast/southwest oriented around the Tribune to
Norcatur area. This is also the direction storms will be traveling.
Due to this orientation, and storms more likely to stay along the
boundary, there is an increased risk of landspouts, mainly between
22-2Z. However, winds up to 65-70 kts and hail up to 2.5+ inches
look to be the main threats. The hail threat is that high with an
isolated left-moving supercell, other storms will likely only
produce 0.5-1.5 inch hail. Blowing dust is once again a concern with
winds above 50 kts.

Tonight, we could see lingering showers and weak storms stick around
until as late as 12Z. We're not expecting a lot of precipitation to
come out of these storms. However, if the storms train over the same
area, localized amounts up to 2 inches of rain is possible on the
northeastern extent of the line of convection. Temperatures look be
similar to cool into the upper 50s in the western CWA, and around 70
in the eastern CWA.

Tomorrow, we see a similar setup as today, but could be the warmest
day of this stretch. Highs look to warm into the 90s, potentially
hitting triple digits in the southern CWA. Heat indices look to
remain under 100 degrees for the CWA. An even weaker short wave
trough than what we have today has a 20% chance of sparking some
scattered convection tomorrow afternoon. Threats would mainly be
hail up to 1.5 inches and 65 MPH winds. If storms occur, they would
fire off around 20-0Z and move east. There is a 5% chance that
convection is far more widespread than scattered storms. This would
increase the wind threat, but lower the potential for additional
overnight convection.

We are looking at RH values dropping into the single digits Friday
afternoon southwest of a line from Tribune to Flagler. Winds from
the west may be gusting in the 15-23 MPH range, with occasional
gusts up around 25-30 MPH. This introduces a brief critical fire
weather threat. However, currently there is not enough confidence
the winds will remain critical long enough to support a Red Flag
Warning.

Overnight Friday, lows look to cool into the upper 50s to upper 60s.
Our southwesterly flow breaks apart a bit as a low moves over the
Northern Plains, extending a trough axis near the CWA. There is a 30-
40% chance this trough is close enough to the CWA to spark storms in
along and north of U.S. 36. This wave of storms would likely start
around 5-7Z. Hail would be the main threat, likely in the 1-2 inch
range, but some analog data supports greater than 3 inch hail. There
is also a concern of these storms backbuilding and producing 2+
inches of rainfall. This may lead to an early morning flash flooding
threat. However, there is a 50-60% chance that the trough remains
too far north to spark this convection, or that the convection
Friday evening prevents the late night convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 238 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Independence Day's Forecast:

Starting with upper pattern, there is a upper level trough set up
over the Michigan and Wisconsin with the bottom of the trough
reaching down to our area. With this trough it is negatively tilted
as it moves through. Some models are showing there being a jet streak
over on the area in the afternoon.

The high temperatures for Saturday could reach up to high 80s to
high 90s. Both Gove and Logan counties in Kansas have around a 5-10%
chance of exceeding 100 degrees for the high. Moving to the wind
gusts they will be in the range of 25-30 mph. There is a possibility
for Severe Weather Hazards on Saturday. Currently there are two
scenarios that could take place on Saturday.

Scenario One: Convection would be in the early morning and ending in
the early afternoon. The likely driving factor for this would be the
trough that begins to move into the area. The SFC-CAPE is forecast
around 1000-2000 J/kg for the three Nebraska counties. Moving to the
Bulk Shear there is around 35-55 kts. The Mid level lapse rates also
are in favor of storm development. The main hazards would be hail
1"+ and Gusts 60 mph or greater.

Scenario Two: Convection would be in the afternoon to evening.
Guidance is suggesting that SFC-CAPE Values would be at least 1000
J/kg for the County Warning Area (CWA). Some Guidance is suggesting
there could be around 2000-4000 J/kg of SFC-CAPE within parts of the
CWA. Moving to Bulk shear values, they are in the range of 30-50
kts. Looking at the Mid level lapse rates they too are in favor of
storm development. The main hazards would be hail 1"+ and Gusts 60
mph or greater.

The uncertainties: Currently there is some disagreement whether
or not there will be a surface low that sets up over the
CO/KS/OK border that would be associated with the upper trough.
Some models have it developing and moving out quickly, versus
some models have it waffling its way out. Given this location
the winds would be from the east and this could promote up slope
flow. There is also some signs of there being a cold front with
the trough that could help promote lifting. If scenario one
pans out it may use most of the instability in the atmosphere
and produce a cold pool, which could reduce any afternoon storm
development. There is also the chance that the southern flow
will remain dominate and overcome any early morning storm's cold
pool. If Friday's afternoon convective potential occurs then
that would reduce any early morning convection and would end up
promoting scenario two.

Finally, this is three days out and as new data populates, one of
the scenarios will likely become more of the favored solution to
what could occur on the Fourth of July.

Sunday through Thursday:

Starting with the upper pattern, there is a ridge that begins to
move in over the Dakotas and Canada. There also are two lows both
sitting off of the northern west and northern east coast. With this
pattern our flow for the CWA will mainly be zonal and will see some
small embedded shortwave troughs throughout the week. These
shortwaves will likely bring some higher precipitation chances for
the area.

Sunday through Thursday looks very similar with the high
temperatures sitting at low to high 90s for the majority of the CWA.
Looking at the RH values they remain higher than 20% each day. As
for the winds they remain mainly out of the south-southeast along
with breezy conditions where gusts don't exceed 30 mph. As for storm
chances the SFC-CAPE Values are in the range of 1000-2000 J/kg.
Moving to the SFC-500mb Shear the range of 30-45 kts. These values
would promote storms potential. Given the shortwaves that move
through the area along with the storm ingredients there could be the
potential of storms. The NCAR AI Convective Hazards Guidance does
suggest 5-15% chance of seeing severe hazards.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 441 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period for
KGLD and KMCK. Winds will favor a southeasterly flow this
afternoon and overnight. Gusts in the 16-28 kts range are
expected, as are scattered storms this evening. Overnight,
expect LLWS at 200-400 feet AGL from the south at 40-45 kts.
This looks to end as a cold front starts sweeping through the
region, causing winds to become northwesterly. A high will be
over the region tomorrow, leading to variable winds throughout
the bulk of the day.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

UPDATE...CA
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Holdren
AVIATION...CA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
427 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-032230-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne CO-Cheyenne KS-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-
Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-
Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
427 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026 /527 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the Tri-State area.
Scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon and evening hours may
be capable of producing locally gusty winds of up to 75 mph and hail
up to 2 inches. Blowing dust may result from the strong winds,
leading to localized brownout conditions.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible at least Friday and
Saturday night. Winds around 50-70 MPH and hail around 0.5 to 1.5
inches may be possible from these storms. Blowing dust may result
from the strong winds, leading to localized brownout conditions.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
636 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0631 PM     Hail             8 NNW Stratton          40.26N 101.29W
07/02/2026  M2.00 Inch       Hitchcock          NE   Trained Spotter

            Trained Spotter report of 2 inch hail
            measured and pictured.

&&

DH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
640 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     Hail             8 NNW Stratton          40.26N 101.29W
07/02/2026  M3.00 Inch       Hitchcock          NE   Trained Spotter

            Trained Spotter report of 3 inch hail
            measured and pictured.

&&

DH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
723 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0711 PM     Hail             8 NNW Stratton          40.26N 101.29W
07/02/2026  E1.50 Inch       Hitchcock          NE   Trained Spotter

            Trained Spotter report of 1-1.5 inch hail
            failing.

&&

DH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
724 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 PM     Hail             8 NNW Stratton          40.26N 101.29W
07/02/2026  E2.00 Inch       Hitchcock          NE   Trained Spotter

            Trained Spotter report of 2 inch hail
            failing.

&&

DH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
725 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0719 PM     Hail             8 NNW Stratton          40.26N 101.29W
07/02/2026  E2.75 Inch       Hitchcock          NE   Trained Spotter

            Trained Spotter report of baseball sized
            hail failing.

&&

DH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
729 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     Funnel Cloud     8 NW Stratton           40.24N 101.32W
07/02/2026                   Hitchcock          NE   Law Enforcement

&&