Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1125 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Flood Watch has been issued for parts of the area tonight as
  localized rainfall amounts may reach 3.5 inches.

- Storm chances continue through much of the week. Severe
  weather is possible Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1231 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Current satellite observations have a large upper low over the
Northwestern United States with ridging over the Southern United
States. The observations are also showing cumulus clouds forming
around and south of Highway 40 in NW Kansas. This area is our first
area of concern for storms this afternoon. While the earlier storms
did use up some of the instability, clearing skies and continued low
level moisture advection is allowing for decent recovery. With the
earlier outflow in the area, am expecting this area to have storms
develop around 1-3pm MT. This is just a bit faster than prior
forecasts, but not too much of a change. We are still expecting the
storms to develop and make their way to the east/northeast. The
environment is forecast to have plenty of shear with 0-6km shear
around 40-50 kts. With the shear and MUCAPE around 1500-3000 J/kg,
we have plenty of support for storms to sustain themselves. This
does lead to a concern for supercells with hail potentially above 2
inches in diameter. Otherwise, storms that cluster fairly quickly
should have hail between 0.5-2.0" with wind gusts up to 70 mph. The
tornado threat is forecast to initially be low with LCLs above 1500
meters. But given a persistent enough storm, LCLs should lower with
0-1km shear around 10-20 kts. This could allow for a tornado to form.

A secondary line is forecast to form in Eastern Colorado closer to
the center of the low and along the Palmer Divide. These storms
should push steadily to the east northeast, mainly impacting along
and North of I70 (though all of Eastern Colorado has a chance). The
threats are fairly similar to the other storms as there isn't
forecast to be much of a change in the environment.

As both clusters push east/northeast, they area forecast to move
into an environment with slightly less instability due to the early
cloud cover and outflow from the earlier storms. That being said,
there is more moisture forecast to be available. This may lead to
the chances for severe weather decreasing, but will also help a low
chance persist through the night as long as we have storms. This
will also lead to a concern for flash flooding as storms converge in
the northeast part of the area, and then potentially reignite along
outflows. The overall chance is around 20% or less as storms would
likely have to stall over an area. With downshear vectors around 40-
50 kts, this doesn't see too likely. But clustering/training over an
area could lead to 2-4 inches of rain. Overnight storms chances
should generally favor NW Kansas and SW Nebraska. With the storms
and cloud cover, temperatures should generally stay in the 60s and
70s. Some fog may also occur in Eastern Colorado and adjacent
counties as long as storms stay to the east and allow for some
clearing and cooling.

For tomorrow, showers and storms could continue into the morning as
long as outflow boundaries remain in the area. But they should push
out of the area later in the morning as instability drops due to the
persistent storms and as the surface low pushes a bit more to the
west. The upper level ridge is also forecast to amplify a bit more
into the Plains as the upper trough shifts a bit more to the north.
While the precip chances may lower, the cloud cover is forecast to
be fairly thick for most of the day, which should keep temperatures
in the 70s and 80s.

As the day goes on, the upper trough axis to the northwest is
forecast to shift a bit eastward along with the surface low. This
may be just enough to get storms going again, though any prior
activity may stabilize the air too much. If it doesn't, it looks
like storms should fire up along the Palmer Divide again and maybe
close to Greeley county if a surface convergence zone sets up. The
main difference for tomorrow is that the flow as a whole is forecast
to be weaker, leading to lower shear and lower wind gust potential.
This should lead to more clustering storms that may struggle to hold
together. The severe hazards should also be a little lower in
intensity, though an isolated storm may be able to still produce
very large hail and maybe a tornado. As storms progress east, the
instability is forecast to lower which should have most storms
dissipate or become showers. May still have storms linger through
the night in our eastern areas if they can keep forming on outflow
boundaries. Temperatures should remain in the 60s and 70s for most
of the night with the cloud cover and linger precipitation.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 154 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Wednesday, the upper trough that had been over the Western United
States is forecast to finally push east and move through the Plains.
It is forecast to move slow enough that the cloud cover should
linger through the day, keeping temperatures more in the 80s. With
the moisture and synoptic support moving through, storms are
forecast to fire up again in the area. Severe weather would be
possible, but likely not widespread with the cloud cover hindering
instability generation.

Thursday through Saturday, the area is forecast to be under
zonal/ridging flow. This should lead to relatively mid conditions
with little change in air mass. Temperatures are forecast to reach
the 80s and low 90s with winds around 10-20 mph. Storms are possible
each day, though the lack of larger synoptic forcing is keeping
chances lower around 10-25% (favoring the east where there will
likely be more moisture).

Late in the weekend, another upper trough is forecast to move into
the Western United States and push east towards the area. This could
lead to conditions similar to today and tomorrow with more moist and
warm conditions ahead of the trough. This should bring back better
chances for storms and severe weather, as long as the trough doesn't
lag to the west. Otherwise, the benign conditions would continue a
few more days with slightly warmer temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1120 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
overnight hours. Short term models and radar trends suggest
these will impact KMCK at some point, but more likely to stay
north of KGLD. However, may see a period of low clouds at KGLD.
Confidence is on the low side regarding both rain chances and
low ceilings due to impacts from the convection which models
will not get exactly right. General trend through the morning
will be for the precipitation to move out with just lingering
mid and high clouds through the rest of the day. Thunderstorm
chances Tuesday afternoon and evening will be on the low side
and may not develop at all.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 807 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Another round of precipitation is expected to occur overnight. An
additional 0.25-1 inch with localized areas seeing up to 3.5 inches
if storms train over the same location. Southwestern Nebraska and
northwestern Kansas are the most likely to see these high
precipitation values. Rainfall during the afternoon and evening
monday moistened up this area with a few tenths of precipitation,
and is still ongoing as of writing this. A Flash Flood Watch has
been issued in preparation of the potential for overnight Flash
Flooding. Flash flooding is more difficult to spot overnight, so be
extra cautious.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch until 8 AM CDT this morning for KSZ001>004.
CO...None.
NE...Flood Watch until 7 AM MDT /8 AM CDT/ Tuesday for NEZ079>081.

&&

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...024
HYDROLOGY...CA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
809 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-030215-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne CO-Cheyenne KS-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-
Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-
Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
809 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026 /909 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for Kansas and Nebraska.
Supercells will be possible, capable of producing large hail,
damaging winds and blowing dust, and perhaps a tornado or two.
Potential impacts include but are not limited to damage to vehicles
from hail and damage to roofs, siding and trees from wind, as well as
hazardous travel due to low visibility in blowing dust.

A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for areas along and north of
U.S. 36 in Kansas and Nebraska. Localized precipitation totals up to
3.5 inches overnight may lead to Flash Flooding. Overnight flooding
presents an additional threat as it is difficult to notice.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms both Tuesday and
Wednesday. Confidence is low at this time, but if storms develop
hail will be possible as well as isolated severe wind gusts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
642 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0614 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 ESE Eckley            40.10N 102.47W
06/01/2026                   Yuma               CO   Storm Chaser

            semi blown over at the intersection of CR U
            and Hwy 34. No information regarding
            injuries.

&&

JTL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
645 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     5 SE Eckley             40.06N 102.42W
06/01/2026  M56 MPH          Yuma               CO   Mesonet

            WeatherLink.

&&

024

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
651 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0643 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 ENE Wauneta           40.31N 102.18W
06/01/2026  M64 MPH          Yuma               CO   Mesonet

            WeatherLink.

&&

024

Preliminary Local Storm Report...Summary
National Weather Service Goodland KS
654 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 NNE Goodland          39.37N 101.70W
06/01/2026  M58 MPH          Sherman            KS   ASOS

            ASOS station KGLD Goodland.

0452 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 NNE Goodland          39.37N 101.70W
06/01/2026  M56 MPH          Sherman            KS   ASOS

0509 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     9 WSW Winona            39.00N 101.39W
06/01/2026  M53 MPH          Logan              KS   Mesonet

            Mesonet station UP840 9.0 W Winona (UPR).

0615 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Saint Francis           39.77N 101.80W
06/01/2026  M53 MPH          Cheyenne           KS   AWOS

            AWOS station KSYF St. Francis City.

0556 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     8 S Yuma                40.00N 102.73W
06/01/2026  E50 MPH          Yuma               CO   Storm Chaser

            Chaser report of estimated 50 MPH winds from
            NW, some pea sized hail, and some blowing
            dust, visibility 0.5-1 mile visibility.

0648 AM     Hail             8 N Ruleton             39.46N 101.86W
06/01/2026  E1.00 Inch       Sherman            KS   Public

            nickel to quarter size hail.

0358 PM     Hail             8 N Ruleton             39.46N 101.86W
06/01/2026  M1.00 Inch       Sherman            KS   Public

            nickel to quarter size hail reported.

0435 PM     Hail             12 N Ruleton            39.51N 101.93W
06/01/2026  E1.00 Inch       Sherman            KS   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

0436 PM     Hail             12 N Ruleton            39.51N 101.92W
06/01/2026  E1.00 Inch       Sherman            KS   Public

            pea to quarter size hail.

0436 PM     Hail             Wray                    40.08N 102.23W
06/01/2026  M1.00 Inch       Yuma               CO   Trained Spotter

            Pea to quarter size hail reported by trained
            spotter.

0607 PM     Hail             6 E Yuma                40.12N 102.62W
06/01/2026  M1.00 Inch       Yuma               CO   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

0505 PM     Hail             6 N Burlington          39.39N 102.27W
06/01/2026  M1.00 Inch       Kit Carson         CO   Trained Spotter

            Estimated report of 1 inch hail 6 north of
            Burlington.

0619 PM     Hail             1 ENE Page City         39.09N 101.13W
06/01/2026  E0.88 Inch       Logan              KS   Emergency Mngr

            pea to nickel size hail along highway 40
            from CR 260 (highway 25 intersection) to
            monument. ground is white with hail.

0535 PM     Hail             5 N Winona              39.14N 101.24W
06/01/2026  E0.75 Inch       Thomas             KS   Trained Spotter

            pea to penny size hail reported. hail is
            accumulating, ground is white.

0420 PM     Hail             Russell Springs         38.91N 101.18W
06/01/2026  E0.75 Inch       Logan              KS   Public

            pea to penny size hail.

0633 AM     Hail             Grainfield              39.11N 100.47W
06/01/2026  E0.75 Inch       Gove               KS   Public

0455 PM     Hail             Burlington              39.30N 102.27W
06/01/2026  E0.75 Inch       Kit Carson         CO   Public

            Estimaed 3/4 inch hail in Burlington.

0619 PM     Hail             2 S Yuma                40.10N 102.72W
06/01/2026  E0.50 Inch       Yuma               CO   Public

            Report from mPING: Half-inch (0.50 in.).

0558 PM     Blowing Dust     8 S Yuma                40.00N 102.73W
06/01/2026                   Yuma               CO   Storm Chaser

            Chaser report of estimated 50 MPH winds from
            NW, some pea sized hail, and some blowing
            dust, visibility 0.5-1 mile visibility.

0614 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 ESE Eckley            40.10N 102.47W
06/01/2026                   Yuma               CO   Storm Chaser

            semi blown over at the intersection of CR U
            and Hwy 34. No information regarding
            injuries.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1115 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

COZ090-KSZ001-020530-
Yuma County CO-Cheyenne KS-
1115 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN YUMA COUNTY IN
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS THROUGH 1130 PM MDT/1230 AM CDT/...

At 1115 PM MDT/1215 AM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 7 miles west of Bird City
to 16 miles east of Cope. Movement was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  St. Francis around 1220 AM CDT.

This includes Highway 385 between mile markers 208 and 210, and
between mile markers 212 and 226.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Goodland.

&&

LAT...LON 3961 10155 3958 10219 3959 10272 3982 10269
      3988 10166
TIME...MOT...LOC 0515Z 282DEG 28KT 3975 10167 3967 10254

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Trigg

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
107 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

KSZ001-020630-
Cheyenne KS-
107 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS THROUGH 130 AM CDT...

At 107 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles southwest of St. Francis, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern
Cheyenne County in northwestern Kansas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Goodland.

&&

LAT...LON 3968 10170 3962 10205 3977 10205 3980 10180
TIME...MOT...LOC 0607Z 249DEG 22KT 3970 10199

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Trigg