Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
448 PM MDT Sun Apr 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few storms will develop in northeast CO late this afternoon
  and track east across the area this evening, ending by
  midnight MDT.

- An isolated severe storm capable of producing quarter size
  hail, localized wind gusts up to 65 mph and/or a brief tornado
  is possible in northeast CO until ~7 pm MDT.

- An elevated severe storm capable of producing quarter to golf
  ball size hail is possible in northwest KS this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 340 PM MDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Today-Tonight: Shortwave energy approaching the 4-Corners at 19
UTC will track ENE across the central Rockies (this evening)
and adjoining High Plains (tonight). An associated lee cyclone
developing near the CO-NM-OK border this afternoon will track
eastward along/near the KS-OK border toward Liberal, KS this
evening then ENE-NE across central-northeast KS tonight.. along
the southern and eastern periphery of a cool, shallow airmass
/inverted surface ridge/ extending southward from Nebraska into
southwest KS. The evolution of this cool, shallow airmass (and
extent to which it modifies and recedes northward this
afternoon) remains central to virtually all important aspects of
the forecast, as it will be a key factor determining the
precise track of the lee cyclone.. and northern extent of the
warm sector. Elevated convection this morning effectively
reinforced the cool, shallow airmass.. resulting in a
considerable (300+ J/kg) pool of convective inhibition over
western KS.. a pool unlikely to be dislodged by a relatively
short period of modest southerly flow on the eastern periphery
of the developing lee cyclone, which will now very likely assume
a more southerly track (i.e. the cool, near homogenous airmass
over western KS will confine/hold the baroclinic zone further
south). Simulated reflectivity forecasts via current and recent
runs of the HRRR and NAM NEST continue to suggest that any
appreciable convective development this afternoon will be
confined to northeast CO, where the cooler airmass is far
shallower /likely to mix-out/ and a narrow portion of the warm
sector will extend as far north as Yuma County for a brief
period (~22-01 UTC).. until low- level flow shifts to the NE and
N. During this brief period, instability will be marginal
(~100-500 J/kg MLCAPE), at best.. marginal enough that updrafts
may struggle to survive (let alone utilize) 60-70 KT of
effective deep layer shear. With the above in mind, expect a
marginal severe weather potential with any surface based
updrafts in northeast CO between ~22-01 UTC. A short 'window of
opportunity' for elevated severe storms may exist over northwest
KS later this evening as the aforementioned shortwave energy
approaches from the west and low-level warm advection/
frontogenesis strengthens on the E-ENE periphery of the eastward
advancing 850 mb low.

Mon-Tue night: Expect slightly below average temperatures and
episodic cloud cover / shower chances associated with
progressive small amplitude waves and/or cyclonic shear
vorticity on the northern fringe of a strengthening W-WSW upper
level jet over the Desert Southwest, 4-Corners and Southern
Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 106 PM MDT Sun Apr 26 2026

***Synopsis***

Troughing appears to be favored across the Western United
States Wednesday morning. This pattern would favor a broad
surface low pressure across the Desert Southwest. Ensemble
guidance seems to indicate that this troughing will to move in
overhead Thursday, and potentially last into Saturday. This
would be associated with a broad surface high pressure system
moving southeastward out of Canada, and remaining to the north
of the CWA. Model guidance begins to become a bit more divergent
with the evolution of the upper-level pattern Saturday,
specifically regarding when the troughing overhead will move out
and be replaced by ridging above. Ensemble guidance is leaning
toward ridging replacing the trough sometime Saturday morning or
afternoon, and lasting through the end of the period.

***Wednesday***

With troughing favored to the west of the CWA, conditions may
warm slightly from Tuesday, with current forecast temperatures
in the mid to upper-60s. In addition, with the incoming surface
low pressure, there may be some chances for precipitation. While
rain is possible across the entire area Wednesday, the highest
probability for precipitation exists across portions of Yuma and
Kit Carson Counties in Colorado, with around a 40-45% chance of
receiving more than 0.1 inches of rain. Some of this activity
may be from showers and or thunderstorms, as LREF guidance shows
over a 90% chance for CAPE (instability) to be present.
However, there is a 75% chance that this CAPE is less than 200
J/kg across the area. With LREF 500-mb winds in the 35-45 kt
range, stronger storms may be capable of becoming severe.
However, the lower amounts of instability would indicate that
much of the activity may be limited to showers and possibly
weaker thunderstorms.

***Thursday/Friday***

Conditions are favored to cool a little bit Thursday as
troughing moves in overhead and the surface high from Canada
moves into the Northern Plains and Midwest. Forecast highs are
in the upper-50s to mid-60s Thursday. A minor return flow may
develop across portions of Northwest Kansas and Southwest
Nebraska Friday that slightly increases temperatures, though
forecast highs are still anticipated in the upper-50s to
upper-60s. Precipitation is possible once again both days, with
up to a 50% chance that over 0.1 inches of rain is experienced.
Showers and thunderstorms may cause some of this activity.
Thursday looks a bit more probable for convective showers and
storms, with at least a 2 out of 3 chance for CAPE to be present
across the area, but a 90% chance or better that it will remain
below 200 J/kg. With 500-mb winds topping out at around 35 kts,
severe potential looks to remain relatively low. These
parameters are even lower on Friday, which would indicate light
rain and possibly localized weaker showers.

***Saturday/Sunday***

Again, models begin to diverge regarding the upper-level
pattern Saturday, though ridging appears to be favored. This is
reflected in the forecast highs for Saturday and Sunday in the
mid-60s to lower- 70s, and lower to upper-70s respectively.
Precipitation may continue to hang around as the upper-level
troughing moves out of the area Saturday, though becomes much
less likely. The greatest potential for precipitation to occur
on Saturday is across East-Central Colorado and West-Central
Kansas, and is as high as a 50% chance according to the LREF.
However, this is more likely to be light rain, as the
precipitation is associated with a 25% chance or less for over
0.1 inches. Precipitation chances continue to decrease on
Sunday, with ridging fully favored overhead according to 500-mb
mean height guidance from the GEFS and EC ensembles.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 445 PM MDT Sun Apr 26 2026

GLD: Broken MVFR ceilings (occasionally scattering to VFR) will
prevail until sunset. IFR ceilings are likely to return after
sunset, with further deterioration to LIFR expected overnight.
Ceilings will begin to lift/improve to MVFR an hour or two after
sunrise (~14Z). MVFR ceilings may linger into the early to mid
afternoon before lifting/scattering to VFR. Light SE-ESE winds
will shift to the E around sunset then NE to N overnight,
remaining light until sunrise. Breezy, 15-25 knot NNW winds will
develop after sunrise and persist through the afternoon.

MCK: Ongoing IFR conditions are expected to persist through the
remainder of the afternoon. Deterioration to LIFR is likely to
occur after sunset, with LIFR conditions persisting overnight.
Improvement to IFR-MVFR will begin to occur around sunrise. MVFR
ceilings may linger into the early to mid afternoon before
lifting/scattering to VFR. Light ENE winds will shift to the NE
and N overnight. Breezy, 15-25 knot NW winds will follow, after
sunrise, and persist through the afternoon.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...Vincent

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
627 PM MDT Sun Apr 26 2026

COZ091-092-270115-
Kit Carson County CO-Cheyenne County CO-
627 PM MDT Sun Apr 26 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CHEYENNE AND
SOUTHWESTERN KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO THROUGH 715
PM MDT...

At 626 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms 15 miles northeast of Boyero, or 18 miles south of
Flagler, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Cheyenne and southwestern Kit Carson Counties in east central
Colorado.

This includes Interstate 70 in Colorado between mile markers 415 and
417.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3891 10308 3916 10313 3930 10265 3902 10243
TIME...MOT...LOC 0026Z 243DEG 25KT 3904 10300

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

KMK