Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
318 PM MDT Fri May 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms continue into the weekend. Severe
  storms are possible Friday through Monday with large hail and
  damaging wind gusts as the main threats. A tornado or two may
  be possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1209 PM MDT Fri May 29 2026

Today, a trough axis from the low over the western CONUS will be
pushing in over the southern Rockies. This will lead to a warm front
moving in from the southwest, and some storms look to form in the
afternoon hours. Highs on Friday look to warm to around 80.

12Z CAMs have come into a lot more agreement about the convection
this afternoon and evening. Starting around 20-22Z, storms look to
start firing in eastern Colorado, filling out into a broken line of
storms. These storms will move to the northeast, looking to be about
half way across the CWA by 0Z.

All threats will be possible with these storms, but intensity is not
overly strong. Most likely worse impacts would be 2 inch hail, 70
MPH winds, and a brief tornado. Most of these threats are being
driven by a lot of instability, 2,000-3,500 J/kg of MUCAPE. Shear is
still looking to be the limiting factor, but has increased over the
past 24 hours. Bulk shear looks to be around the 25-40 kts mark,
which is enough for supercells, but may be too unstable and
unbalanced to produce extremely impactful threats.

This threat could continue until around 3-6Z. The earlier end time
would be if the storms weaken and severe weather is no longer a
threat with the 6Z timing applicable if storms remain severe until
they exits the area to the east. Showers may lingering
until 9Z. Overnight temperatures look to remain stable in the 50s.

Saturday, is shaping up to be a conditional high impact severe
weather day. As the 500 mb moves over the Four Corners, it will
create another trough axis that will sweep over the CWA in the
afternoon hours. Down at 850 mb, this will allow a low to form in
northern Colorado and move to the north-northeast in the afternoon.
This low will draw in southwesterly, warm and dry air, setting up a
dryline. East of the dryline, southeasterly flow is expected to keep
dew points in the 50s and 60s. The big question is where will this
dryline be when both the 500 mb vorticity catches up with it and
when surface temperatures hit convective-T values. As it stands, the
dryline could setup anywhere along and east a line from Yuma, CO to
Oakley, KS when storms start to fire. This also includes a potential
that storms fire to the east of the CWA and we are not impacted.
It's also worth noting the farther east the dryline sets up, the
less likely it will be that any storms develop. This is due to a
large separation between the low and upper-level forcing factors.

These storms look to fire between 20-23Z as a broken line of
individual cells. We are looking at two different scenarios playing
out with these storms. The "high based" scenario would occur if the
surface level dew points lowers into the low 40s due to efficient
mixing or drier air to the southeast of the CWA. If this occurs,
wind gusts up to 65 MPH would be the main hazard with 1 inch hail
being possible.

The other scenario is more aggressive and more likely if storms do
fire off in the CWA. In this case, the low level dew points remains
in the mid 50s to 60s east of the dry line. This would allow CAPE
values to climb into the 2,500-4,000 J/kg range with effective shear
of 30-55 kts, and promote surface based storms. This would present a
significant threat for all hazards. Hail in the 2-3 inch range, 70+
MPH wind gusts from down bursts, and a few tornadoes, potentially
long-lived tornadoes, would be possible. As a side note, the 12Z
NAMNest shows a worst-case version of this scenario. If dewpoints
east of U.S. 83 are near 70F at 21Z, this scenario becomes much more
likely.

In either the high based or surface based scenario, convection looks
to fire along most of the dryline very quickly and then move to the
northeast, out of the CWA, by 3Z. Overnight, temperatures look to
cool into the mid 40s to upper 50s as the trough exits to the
northeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 220 PM MDT Fri May 29 2026

Starting with Sunday, the upper level pattern has a shortwave trough
making its way through the County Warning Area (CWA). There is a jet
streak over the Rockies and the entrance begins to creep in. The
high temperatures for the day look to warm up to the mid to high 80s
with some localized 90s in the southeastern portions of the region.
The lows look to be in the 50s with some localized mid 40s for the
Colorado Counties. Winds look to be relatively calm and out of the
southeast.

There has been some slight changes in the precipation chances for
Sunday's afternoon compared to yesterdays forecast. The CAPE values
have decreased quite a bit. NBM and LREF both have there being at
most 1000 J/kg of SFC-CAPE for Red Willow, Norton, and Graham
counties. Other models are agreeing as well. Surface to 500 mb shear
values really haven't change much and still remain in the 25-40 kts
range. If there are thunderstorms that develop and they are severe,
the main hazards would be, would be 1.50" hail and gusts up to 40-50
kts.

One thing to note is depending on how quick Saturday's system exits
the CWA or if we get any wrap around precipitation, Sunday's
afternoon storm chances may increase.

For The upper pattern there looks to be a ridge that is sandwiched
between two lows over Canada on Monday. Guidance is showing a
little shortwave disturbance that can be seen at 500 mb that
moves through the CWA. The high temperatures for the day are in
the 80s to 90s. The lows remain in the 50s.

There are chances for precipitation/storm chances for Monday.
Starting with instability, guidance is suggesting there being at
least 1000 J/kg of SFC-CAPE. Some models do suggest there being
around 2000 J/kg which would be on the higher end. The NBM and
LREF's 90th percentile show around 2000 J/kg as well. Moving to wind
shear, the SFC-500 mb shear is in the 30-45 kts range. The lapse
rates are currently forecast to be in the 7.9-9.0 C/km range. Dew
points look to be in the 45-55 degrees. NCAR AI-NWP does show a
signal that would help build confidence in severe weather outcomes.
Currently, there is some disagreements with location and specific
timing, but the timing does look to be the afternoon into evening.
Looking at  soundings there is a mixture of both hooked and straight-
line hodographs. The main threats that would be associated with
these storms would be hail up to 1.50", Gusts in the 45-55 kts, and
a brief tornado could be possible if storms develop.

Tuesday high temperatures are in the 80s and lows in the 50s. The
winds look to be from the southeast and relatively calm. There is
precipation chances for the day. The main timing looks to be in the
early evening into the night. CAPE is the range of 1000-1500 J/kg,
with little to no shear, which would lead to very little severe
chances. Looking at the PoPs there is 50-60% chance. There is about
a 20-30% of exceeding 0.10". The PWATs for the CWA show 1"-1.25".
Looking at GFS sounds the atmosphere is deeply saturated. Also
looking Corfidi up and downshear magnitude would be around or under
20 kts. This would suggest the storms/showers would be slow-moving
or stationary.

For the extended period of the week, the low pressure system to the
northwest of the ridge will kick out some shortwave troughs that
will bring precipitation chances to the region. This does look to be
on the weaker side as it quickly crumbles away come Wednesday. Then
the upper flow transitions to more zonal flow.

Guidance has been showing the high temperatures to be in the 80s for
the majority of this period. For Friday the temperatures warm up a
bit to the low 90s, as the upper pattern transitions. The lows are
forecast to be in the 50-60s range. Wednesday through Friday PoPs
are in the 20-60% range during the each day's afternoon/evening
hours. As for severe potential, there is no strong signal for
anything yet, but nothing can be ruled out since this is about 5-7
days out.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 315 PM MDT Fri May 29 2026

VFR conditions are expected to dominate through the period for
KGLD and KMCK. A round of storms looks to move through the
region this afternoon and another round of storms tomorrow
afternoon. MVFR conditions may accompany any storms.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA/Holdren
AVIATION...CA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1102 AM MDT Fri May 29 2026

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-301715-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne CO-Cheyenne KS-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-
Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-
Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1102 AM MDT Fri May 29 2026 /1202 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

Today, severe storms are possible during the afternoon and evening
hours. Large hail up to 2 inches and wind gusts up to 70 mph are the
main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Saturday, severe storms are possible again during the afternoon and
evening hours. Hail up to 2 inches, winds up to 70 MPH, and a brief
tornado are the potential hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
334 PM MDT Fri May 29 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0312 PM     Hail             7 ENE Kit Carson        38.79N 102.67W
05/29/2026  M1.00 Inch       Cheyenne           CO   Public

            Twitter Report with image and measurement of
            1.13 inches. Time Estimated from radar.

&&

CLD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
344 PM MDT Fri May 29 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0323 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Aroya                   38.85N 103.13W
05/29/2026  M61 MPH          Cheyenne           CO   Mesonet

            Mesonet station UP695 Aroya (UPR).

&&

CLD

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
446 PM MDT Fri May 29 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     5 S Burlington          39.23N 102.28W
05/29/2026  M63 MPH          Kit Carson         CO   ASOS

            ASOS station KITR Burlington Co Airport.

&&

CA

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
451 PM MDT Fri May 29 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0446 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     5 S Burlington          39.23N 102.28W
05/29/2026  M66 MPH          Kit Carson         CO   ASOS

            ASOS station KITR Burlington Co Airport.

&&

CA

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
455 PM MDT Fri May 29 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0446 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     5 S Burlington          39.23N 102.28W
05/29/2026  M66 MPH          Kit Carson         CO   ASOS

            ASOS station KITR Burlington Co Airport.

&&

CLD