Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
217 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sunday-Monday, more severe weather is expected during the
  afternoon and evening hours. All hazards are possible, and
  will generally favor northern portions of the area.

- Blowing dust will be possible with severe storms. Blowing dust
  may also occur Monday with wind gusts nearing 50 mph south of
  U.S. 40.

- Early Tuesday morning, a freeze watch is in effect for Eastern
  Colorado where temperatures could drop into the mid 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 156 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026

Current observations show a large upper trough across most of the
Rockies region with a large surface low roughly from the Panhandles
region to North-Central Kansas. With this, most of the area is on
the backside of the low and has been cloud covered through the
morning. This has kept temperatures mainly in the 60s/70s with a few
80s around Highway 283 where the sun broke through a bit earlier. As
the day progresses, a convergence zone remains forecast to develop
near the Palmer Divide and ignite some storms that'll move
east/northeast into and through the area. These storms would likely
be quick and severe with mean wind around 30-40 mph from the
southeast and corfidi downshear vectors nearing 70-100 kts. The
likely start time is around 3-4pm MT and ending around 10-11pm CT.

Going more into the severe potential, the early cloud cover is
expected to lower the instability a bit. That being said, cloud
cover is clearing in Eastern Colorado which will help us recover
some instability before storms fire up. With a good amount of
moisture available, MUCAPE could reach 1000-3000 J/kg as the
afternoon and evening goes on. With Mid-level lapse rates near 8
C/km, storms should be able to fire up and sustain themselves. A few
more recent runs have suggested that there may be too much CIN that
ends storms early, but still a 75% chance that storms push through.
With effective shear around 60-70 kts, supercells are likely as long
as they don't cluster and compete too much. This will lead to a
chance for large hail again, mainly in the 1-2 inch range. Hail
could reach 3 inches again, but much larger may be hard with the
shear and wind speeds potentially being too strong and over shearing
the storm. This may also hamper the tornado threat, though a well
sustained supercell would have the potential to put down a long
track tornado. Otherwise, quick spinups seem to be more likely. As
for wind, most of the wind gusts are forecast to be in the 45-65 mph
range, matching the forecast speed of the storms. The strong 75 mph+
gusts may be fewer and far between with an organized line not as
likely to form. That being said, any good surge or outflow could
produce wind gusts of 80-90 mph again, with 100 not out of the
question due to the strong downshear vectors.

The storms should largely favor along and north of I-70 again. Those
south of I-70 may see storms develop if an outflow shoots out of the
original storms and is able to trigger additional storms. Otherwise,
the main concern for those south of I-70 would be blowing dust along
a storm outflow. A similar scenario happened yesterday with the wall
of dust, and conditions haven't changed that much to where it
wouldn't happen. The only difference is that the early cloud cover
may have hindered lower level lapse rates and lowered how much dust
could be lofted.

Once the storms leave the area tonight, cloudy skies are forecast as
we still continue to wrap moisture into the area around the low.
This could also develop fog, though winds increasing to around 15-20
mph should hinder dense fog development.

Monday, part of the upper trough axis is forecast to push through
the area and help push the current area of low pressure a bit
further southeast. This should allow colder air and higher pressure
to filter into the area, increasing winds to 15-30 mph with gusts of
35-50 mph. Thankfully, the risk for critical fire conditions has
lowered with the increase in low level moisture available. The issue
is that those who remain with little precipitation run the risk of
blowing dust developing during the afternoon hours. Currently the
chance is around 40-50%, and it could be a wall if the wind shift
and strengthening is uniform as the low pushes off faster later in
the day. A few showers and storms may form

Monday night, cold air is forecast to continue advecting into the
area from the north. This does lead to some concern for freezing
temperatures to be reached with some guidance suggesting mid 20s are
possible in Eastern Colorado. That being said, there could be some
cloud cover and or enough surface moisture moving in that
temperatures stay more in the mid to upper 30s. For now, a Freeze
Watch has been issued for Eastern Colorado.

Tuesday, the main trough axis is forecast to push off to the
northeast while a separate wave detaches and remains near the Four
Corners Region. This will not only help weaken the upper level flow,
but weaken the pressure gradient as the high diffuses across the
Plains. This should weaken the winds as the day goes along, with the
wind generally remaining from the north. The lower level moisture
should push out through the day, but not enough for RH to drop below
25 mph and cause critical fire weather concerns. Especially with
temperatures forecast to be in the 50s and 60s. There is the
potential for late in the day storms as a shortwave moves through
the southwest flow and with mid to high level moisture being driven
into the area. For now, storms are likely to be sub-severe and may
not really even make it into Eastern Colorado from the higher
terrain. Temperatures are forecast to drop into the mid to upper 30s
Tuesday night with the higher level cloud cover over the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 217 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026

Wednesday, our region is forecast under a southwest upper-level flow
with a weak trough developing west of the Rocky Mountains and a
ridge building off the west coast. Wednesday will be cool and windy
with high temperatures forecast in the 60s and wind gusts from 30 to
40 mph are possible west of Highway 27. Several embedded shortwaves
will pass through the region bring chances for showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. The
entire county warning area (CWA) has a Probability of Precipitation
(PoPs) around 30-40% during the day Wednesday. PoPs increase in the
evening to around 60-70% and persist overnight into Thursday for the
southern CWA.

Conditions remain unseasonably cool for Thursday with highs again
forecast in the 60s. Our region remains in a southwest upper-level
flow with embedded shortwaves passing through, so chances for
showers and thunderstorms continue. Cooler temperatures and a mostly
stable environment will likely keep and storms that develop sub-
severe. Pops range from 30-60% Thursday overnight into Friday with
the southern CWA on the higher end.

Ensembles are in disagreement on when the aforementioned trough
ejects eastward and takes us out of the persistent southwest flow,
but it will likely move on after Friday. A slight warming trend
begins Friday with high temperatures forecast in the 70s for Friday
and 80s for Sunday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms remain
Friday through Saturday with PoPs around 20-30% for the eastern CWA
as several shortwaves pass through the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1108 AM MDT Sun May 17 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... Conditions are forecast to be VFR by 20-21Z
as ceilings continue to lift. Winds should remain from the north
around 10-20 kts through much of the period, there could be a
few gusts nearing 30 kts. The main concern is for storms to
develop west of the terminals in Eastern Colorado and move over
the terminals around 00-04Z. Likely, the storms will go
northwest of the terminals. That being said, be advised that the
storms could produce wind gusts around 50-60 kts and large hail
up to 3 inches. Otherwise, the other condition of concern is
that ceilings should lower again below 1500ft as the night goes
past 06Z. Both terminals do have a chance for ceilings around
500ft, especially at KGLD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
     for COZ090>092.
NE...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Rhoades
AVIATION...KAK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
405 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-182215-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne CO-Cheyenne KS-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-
Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-
Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
405 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 /505 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued. Hazards of 1 to 3 inch
hail, 60 to 85 MPH winds, blowing dust, and tornadoes are possible.
Damage to life and property is possible from severe storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Severe storms are possible again Monday afternoon east of U.S. 283.
1.5 inch hail, 60 to 70 MPH winds, and tornadoes are possible.
Damage to life and property is possible from severe storms.

Locations south of U.S. 40 have a 40% chance of seeing brownout
conditions in blowing dust Monday afternoon. Rapid reductions in
visibility will make driving dangerous.

Monday night into Tuesday morning, a Freeze Watch is in effect for
temperatures around 30 posing a risk to vegetation.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
455 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0454 PM     Hail             Stratton                39.30N 102.61W
05/17/2026  E0.88 Inch       Kit Carson         CO   Public

            Spotter reports dime and nickel sized hail.

&&

eer

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
501 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0459 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     5 S Burlington          39.23N 102.28W
05/17/2026  M65 MPH          Kit Carson         CO   ASOS

            ASOS station KITR Burlington Co Airport.

&&

CLD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
505 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     13 S Burlington         39.12N 102.27W
05/17/2026  M66 MPH          Kit Carson         CO   Trained Spotter

            Location Estimated; measured by anemometer.

&&

CLD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
512 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0507 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     13 S Burlington         39.12N 102.27W
05/17/2026  M74 MPH          Kit Carson         CO   Trained Spotter

            Trained Spotter reported a 74 mph Gust.

&&

DH

Preliminary Local Storm Report...Summary
National Weather Service Goodland KS
539 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0507 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     13 S Burlington         39.12N 102.27W
05/17/2026  M74 MPH          Kit Carson         CO   Trained Spotter

            Trained Spotter reported a 74 mph Gust.

0503 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     13 S Burlington         39.12N 102.27W
05/17/2026  M66 MPH          Kit Carson         CO   Trained Spotter

            Location Estimated; measured by anemometer.

0459 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     5 S Burlington          39.23N 102.28W
05/17/2026  M65 MPH          Kit Carson         CO   ASOS

            ASOS station KITR Burlington Co Airport.

0433 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Vona                    39.30N 102.75W
05/17/2026  M62 MPH          Kit Carson         CO   Mesonet

            AWN; Braxman.

0415 PM     Hail             6 S Seibert             39.21N 102.88W
05/17/2026  E1.00 Inch       Kit Carson         CO   Trained Spotter

            Trained spotter reports hail up to quarter
            in size. Lots of it that covered the ground.

0439 PM     Hail             7 SSE Vona              39.21N 102.72W
05/17/2026  E1.00 Inch       Kit Carson         CO   Trained Spotter

            Mostly dime & quarter sized hail with a few
            quarters.

0454 PM     Hail             Stratton                39.30N 102.61W
05/17/2026  E0.88 Inch       Kit Carson         CO   Public

            Spotter reports dime and nickel sized hail.

&&

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