Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
247 PM MDT Thu May 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers/storms producing wind gusts generally of
  40-60 mph with a max of 70 mph are possible this afternoon and
  evening. Blowing dust with visibility below a mile may occur
  with these winds.

- Additional chances for severe weather Friday through Monday.

- Critical fire weather conditions are possible on Sunday and
  Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1101 AM MDT Thu May 14 2026

Current observations have an upper ridge over the Plains, but it is
steadily being pushed out by an upper trough in the Northern
High Plains. This is allowing a low pressure system to develop
over the area. With the low setting in over the western portion
of the area, winds have lowered to around 5-15 mph. This should
steadily spread through the rest of the area today. There is a
chance still for some gusty winds around 25-35 mph for the east
before noon and for the west late in the evening depending on
how quick the low moves in. However, most of the stronger winds
should come from storms today.

With the low in the area, some surface convergence zones are
forecast to set up in the area. Aided by the upper trough and some
700-500mb moisture in the western parts of the area, showers and
storms remain on track to form this afternoon and evening.
These showers and storms could start as early as 12pm MT, but
are more likely between 3pm-8pm MT. The coverage is still
expected to be isolated to scattered with the dry air in place
through the lower levels and spotty nature of the higher
moisture. Overall, not much precipitation is expected with most
seeing nothing to maybe a few hundredths. The bigger concern is
for the possibility of storms to produce hail around 0.5-1.5
inches and wind gusts generally between 40-60 mph. The wind
gusts look to be more likely in the form of microbursts due to
the dry air and lack of lower level flow. The max potential
with the winds still appears to be 70 mph, with most in the
aforementioned 40-60 mph range. An associated concern remains
the potential for blowing dust should a strong outflow develop
and be able to propagate. Be alert as blowing dust with
visibility below a mile would be possible. As for the hail,
storms should struggle to hold together with both the dry air
and slight anti- cyclonic curve in forecast hodographs. But
storms that can remain isolated and/or move east into higher
instability may be able to produce some large hail. Two inches
seems to be the maximum should a supercell be able to get going
with those east of Highway 83 having the highest chance (albeit
still a low chance).

Tonight, the upper trough is forecast to continue pushing east and
north with the surface low stagnating and broadening as the night
goes on. With the support waining, shower and storm activity should
dissipate over the night. Winds should shift to be more from the
north, which would allow northern and western portions of the area
to potentially cool into the 40s with the rest of the area in the
50s. Drier air should also push in.

For Friday, the upper pattern is forecast to be fairly zonal with
broad low pressure across much of the Plains. This should keep the
winds around 10-15 mph, limiting the fire weather concerns with
relative humidity forecast to drop into the single digits and teens
with the dry air. Highs are forecast to be slightly cooler in the
upper 80s and 90s. As for storms, the daytime hours are currently
forecast to be mostly clear with dry air in place. Going into the
late afternoon, evening, and overnight hours, moisture above 700 mb
is forecast to return in the upper westerly flow. This combined with
maybe a shortwave and the area being in the wrap around side of the
low is forecast to help fire off a few storms. Showers are more
likely for those west of Highway 83 due to the forecast lack of
instability. For those east of Highway 83, there may be enough low
level moisture recovery for MUCAPE to reach 1500-2500 J/kg. This
could allow for some large hail, though the main limiter would be
effective shear around 20-30 kts which would favor pulse storms.
Still should a storms sustain itself, be alert that hail could reach
2 inches or larger. The wind and tornado threat looks to be very low
due to weak environmental flow and the inversion setting up.

Saturday, another upper trough is forecast to push into the Northern
Rockies. This should deepen the surface low over and south of the
area. This also should put the area downstream of the trough enough
for some potential positive vorticity advection. These factors
should combine to give the area chances for storms later in the day.
During the day, winds should gradually shift to out of the east
underneath mostly clear skies. Wind speeds should pick up to be
around 10-20 mph with some gusts to 30 mph. This may lead to a
concern for critical fire weather conditions, but increasing low
level moisture from the easterly flow is forecast to keep relative
humidity above the high teens.

In regards to the storms, the current forecast position of the
surface low sets up some convergence zones in the afternoon near the
Tri-State border area. with MUCAPE forecast to be around 1500-3000
J/kg and mid-level lapse rates around 8-9 C/km, we should have
enough instability for storms to fire up. The main question is how
much shear we will have. Due to the uncertainty with the surface low
position, we could have shear closer to 25 kts in the storm
environment (which would favor lower end pulse) or 45 kts of shear
in the storm environment (which would allow for the potential
of supercells). The other issue with the low positioning is it
could move the storms initiation zones out of the area. For now,
we are currently forecasting storms in the afternoon that would
mainly move north of I-70 and in Eastern Colorado. All hazards
are possible, with hail currently forecast to be the mostly
likely threat due to the potentially high instability. Tornadoes
are hindered a bit by potentially high LCLs while wind is
hindered by overall weak winds through the air column (though
clustering may be able to produce strong winds from their own
cold pool). Storms would likely start around 2-4pm MT and end
close to midnight. There is the possibility that they could last
through the night, again mainly for north of I- 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 246 PM MDT Thu May 14 2026

Sunday, our region is in a southwest upper-level flow ahead of a
digging trough east of the Rocky Mountains. There is also a surface
low and dryline forecast in southwestern Kansas. This will set our
county warning area (CWA) up for a multi-hazard day with chances for
severe weather primarily north of I-70 and fire weather conditions
south of I-70. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has most of our
area outlooked for a Day 4 15% chance of severe weather. Severe
weather is forecast to begin in the afternoon with supercells, large
hail and strong winds are the main concerns based on strong
southwest flow advecting in ample moisture, strong instability and
embedded shortwaves passing through as a trough moves east. Blowing
dust potential will also need to be monitored.

Moving on to fire weather concerns. South of the I-70 corridor,
Relative Humidity (RH) values drop to the low teens in the afternoon
along with winds gusts up to 40 mph possible. High temperatures are
forecast in the mid 80s to upper 90s. Probability of Precipitation
(PoPs) south of I-70 are less than 10%. With the region outlooked
for severe weather, there is concern for lightning ahead of storms
as an ignition source. Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) values are
in the 30s to 80s, so if any fires start, they will likely grow and
spread rapidly.

Severe weather chances continue for Monday as the eastern CWA is
outlooked for a Day 5 15% chance of severe weather. Our region is
forecast to be in a negatively tilted trough with a surface low on
the eastern edge of our CWA. Similar concerns to Sunday of
supercells with large hail and damaging winds, but there is
uncertainty regarding exact timing and placement given how far out
it is. PoPs are the highest for the northwest CWA ranging from 20-55%

We could have a few hours of fire weather conditions Monday
afternoon for the southern CWA. RH values are forecast in the high
teens with GFDI values of 80-110+ for the most of the CWA. Wind
gusts of 40 to 60 mph are possible. Blowing dust potential will need
to be monitored due to the potential for high winds and dry
conditions.

Tuesday is cooler in the wake of a cold frontal passage. High
temperatures are forecast in the 60s to 70s. Main highlight for
Tuesday is a 10-20% chance for showers and thunderstorms for the
western CWA. Wednesday and Thursday we transition to more of a ridge
pattern, so expect pleasant temperatures with highs forecast in the
70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1101 AM MDT Thu May 14 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are expected at both sites.
That being said, be alert for showers and storms that could
produce very strong winds potentially exceeding 50kts. The
isolated coverage only gives each terminal a 20% chance of
seeing a shower or storm, with a lesser chance for the strong
winds. But if one does occur, it could be very sudden. If strong
winds also occur, blowing dust with visibility below a mile is
also possible. This threat should linger until about 03Z. Winds
through the period in the absence of storms should remain around
10kts or less, except for a few 15-20kt instances through 20Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Rhoades
AVIATION...KAK

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