Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
359 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for eastern
  Colorado until 9 PM.

- Severe storms capable of producing 2 inch diameter hail and
  70 mph wind gusts are possible during the afternoon and
  evening hours today through Wednesday.

- Locations that received heavy rain during the past 24-48 hours
  are more prone to experience flash flooding, should additional
  heavy rain occur this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 209 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Today, the northwesterly flow aloft persists and sends another
shortwave across the Rockies and into the High Plains. Highs look to
warm into the mid 70s in the northeastern CWA and mid 80s in the
southwestern CWA. Convection looks to fire off the front range and
Palmer Divide around 21-23Z and move east into the area. The storms
look to develop in two main clusters. The first is near the I-70
corridor and the other cluster looks to fire off in the Nebraska
panhandle. The first cluster looks to move to the east then
southeast as it approaches the CO/KS border. the other cluster looks
to be moving southeast for most of the event. Both cluster will have
the potential for producing hail up around 2-3 inches, winds in the
50-65 MPH range, and a few brief tornadoes. There is an additional
flooding threat; more information can be found in the hydro section
below. NAMNest is showing the northern cluster forming more into a
bowing line, which could support winds in the 70-80 MPH range. Peak
timing for severe convection will be 23-5Z, but additional
convection is likely overnight.

Additional sub-severe convection looks to trail these storms and
linger into the overnight hours. However, we are seeing CAMs
suggesting we keep up to 2,000 J/kg CAPE and 30+ kts of effective
shear. This suggests additional strong to severe storms may form
overnight, especially in the early morning time, near 9-15Z. Hail in
the 1-2 inch range would be the most likely threat, but there will
be a chance for winds up around 60 MPH. The 12Z NAMNest is even
showing this threat persisting into the midday Tuesday along the
eastern CWA. However, this seems to be an outlier and the best
severe risk looks to be around 12Z. Location could be anywhere along
and east of KS 25 with south-southeast moving storms. Lows tonight
look to cool into the 50s, maybe low 60s. Fog and stratus look to
for where there is not ongoing convection.

Tomorrow, the pattern continues as another shortwave trough rides
the northwesterly flow. Highs look to warm into the mid 70s and mid
80s. Storms look to fire in eastern Colorado around 21-00Z and
progress to the east-southeast. Hazards look to mainly include hail
up to 3 inches, winds up to 70 MPH, and a slight tornado threat for
eastern Colorado. Peak severe timing look to be around 23-5Z. It's
worth noting, if the 12Z NAMNest plays out and there is strong
convection through the midday, the evening severe threat is
dramatically lower.

Additional showers may persist overnight, but strong to severe
storms are not likely. Lows look to cool into the mid 50s to low 60s
with fog and stratus likely making a return.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 126 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue Wednesday and
Thursday for the county warning area (CWA). Our region is forecast
to be in a mostly zonal flow with multiple shortwaves traversing
through the area. Severe weather is possible for the CWA with
Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) from 60-90% Wednesday and
Thursday. The environment is moderately unstable with around 1500-
2500 J/kg of CAPE and 20-40 knots of deep-layer shear. Supercells
with large hail and strong winds are possible withs storms that
develop. Flooding will also be a concern since the entire CWA has
received substantial rain recently.

Friday, we enter more of a weak ridging pattern with an incoming
trough west of the Rocky Mountains. Expect sunny skies and high
temperatures forecast in the 80s. Saturday through the end of the
forecast period continues to warm with high temperatures forecast in
the mid to high 90s for the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 356 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Conditions have improved across the region and VFR conditions
have returned. Southeasterly winds for at least KGLD look to
continue gusting into the 20-25 kts mark this afternoon. KMCK is
starting to have occasional gusts above 20 kts, but these are
expected to be fairly infrequent. Storms are expected across
the region this evening and possible again tomorrow morning.
This part of the forecast remains very fluid, so keep a close
eye on future updated and observations. Around 9Z, MVFR to IFR
ceilings and visibilities are expected to return to both KGLD
and KMCK, potentially lifting in the mid-morning, depending on
precipitation.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 209 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Through Thursday, we are looking at near daily chances of convection
as PWATs range around 0.9-1.75 inch. We are also expecting 0C level
to be around 15,000 feet AGL, leading to deep melting layers,
promoting efficient rainfall producing storms.

A Flood Watch has been issued for Dundy, Hitchcock, Cheyenne (KS),
Rawlins and Decatur counties until Tuesday morning. Over the past 48
hours, 3-6 inches of rain has fallen in the area, leading to
flooding. Additional storms are expected this evening and overnight,
which may compound the flooding issue. Two clusters of storms are
forecast today, with the northern cluster having a 50-60% chance of
adding 0.5-2.5 inches of rainfall in the Watched area.

There is a second chance of storms overnight tonight into early
Tuesday morning. Confidence for these storms' locations and
intensity is low, if they even form. However, there is a 15% chance
they occur over the Watched area, leading to yet more precipitation.

Tuesday, another round of storms is forecast to impact the Tri-State
area. Intensity and location are still up in the air, based on
today's storms and how much convection occurs early Tuesday morning.

Through at least Thursday, there are returning chances of
precipitation across the CWA.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for KSZ001>003.
CO...None.
NE...Flood Watch through late tonight for NEZ079-080.

&&

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Rhoades
AVIATION...CA
HYDROLOGY...CA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
134 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-231945-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne CO-Cheyenne KS-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-
Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-
Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
134 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026 /234 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for eastern Colorado.
Additional Watches may be needed as severe storms capable of
producing 2.5 inch hail and 70 mph wind gusts are possible this
afternoon and evening, between 2 PM and 9 PM MDT.

A Flash Flood Watch has been issued through Tuesday morning for
portions of southwestern Nebraska and northwestern Kansas. Additional
storms this evening and overnight may compound flooding issues.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Severe storms capable of producing 2 inch diameter hail and 70 mph
wind gusts are possible during the afternoon and evening hours on
both Tuesday and Wednesday.

Flash flooding threat will persist through the week as additional
rounds of efficient rain producing storms move through the area.
Driving through flooded roadways is dangerous.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.