Red Flag Warning 22, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
350 PM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few severe storms are possible late this afternoon, mainly
  in eastern CO and adjacent KS-NE border counties after 3pm MT.
  Localized wind gusts up to 70 mph and half dollar size hail
  are the primary hazards. Localized dust storms can not be
  ruled out either.

- A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for portions of the
  area on Sunday, mainly along/west of Highway 25 and south of
  Interstate 70 where breezy southwest winds and low humidity
  could lead to rapid wildfire growth.

- Another Fire Weather Watch issued for Monday for Greeley and
  Wichita counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 112 PM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Dense fog remains across eastern portions of the are this morning as
moisture advection continues to occur. Synoptically, large
scale troughing is forecast to occur through the day, whereas at
the surface troughing is also in place across northeast
Colorado. Temperatures are forecast to warm into the upper 70s
to low 80s along with breezy winds gusting around 30-40 mph
through the day.

The main focus for the day is on thunderstorm development as early
as 20Z. Two areas appear to be favored for storms with the first
being across southern and southeast portions of the area
(Greeley, Wallace, Logan and Wichita counties). Forcing for this
is from embedded shortwaves within the synoptic flow primarily
in the 700- 500mb level. The intensity and coverage of these
storms still remains in question due to lingering cloud cover
and if dry air from the surface trough resulting in a weak
dryline weakens them. If the dryline scenario does occur then
dry thunderstorms could become more of a concern with lightning
induced fire start potential. Hail around half dollar size could
be possible with the strongest storms with around 2000 j/kg in
the moist sector along with effective shear around 30 knots.
Wind gusts up to 70 mph could also be possible as well but given
downshear vectors only remaining around 50 knots think that
70mph would be the high end of the hazard spectrum. Should
winds of 55-70 mph occur then dust storms and possibly a wall
of dust may occur as the 12Z HRRR has around 10 C/km 0-2km lapse
rates and 2-2.5km lapse rates around 7 c/km which may be enough
of a cap to keep the dust near the surface.

The 2nd area of concern is across Kit Carson, Yuma, Dundy and
possible Cheyenne county Kansas. This is forecast to occur starting
around 01Z. This region is forecast to be in proximity of a left
exit region of a 250mb jet synoptically providing forcing. These
storms are forecast to remain more elevated as drier surface air is
forecast to be in place. Cloud to ground lighting may be the biggest
hazard from this activity but inverted v soundings and downshear
vectors remaining around 45-50 knots along with DCAPE values
around 1100 j/kg may still continue to yield win wind gust
potential up to 60 mph. Any severe potential should be done by
06Z but showers may linger through the early morning hours.

Sunday, another warm day is in store for the area with high
temperatures in the 80s. Have opted to cancel northern portions of
the Fire Weather Watch has ECMWF and GEFS ensemble members are
in great agreement with a low pressure system being situated
fairly closely to Yuma county. Due to the proximity of the low
winds are forecast to be fairly weak for the majority of the day
for northern areas. I did not have the confidence to upgrade
any of the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning as the wind
potential looks to be fairly marginal and I also have concerns
on the duration of overlapping of critical conditions.
Confidence in 3 or more hours of critical conditions is
currently around 50-60% with the highest across Cheyenne (CO),
Greeley and Wichita counties. Will also need to keep an eye on
the potential for a short window of severe weather as well
across Gove, Graham and Norton counties. SOme guidance has the
dryline a little further west and with the counties in the right
exit region of a weak 250mb jet may be enough for some storms
to form. Should a storm be able to form large to very large hail
would be the main concern along with damaging winds. Confidence
in a storm forming is currently around 10-15% at this time.
Additional showers may also develop on the back side of the low
but have concerns if any precipitation can reach the ground due
to the dry low levels.

Monday, warm weather is forecast to continue as persistent troughing
synoptically will continue to keep southwesterly flow in place. At
the surface another low pressure system is forecast to develop
across eastern Colorado and eject into W Kansas. Confidence was high
enough to issue a Fire Weather Watch for only Greeley and Wichita
counties as the position of another low pressure system will
greatly affect wind gusts for the day. High temperatures for
the day are forecast in the low to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 135 PM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

An upper-level trough looks to be approaching the forecast area from
the west Tuesday morning, with a 50-60 kt 500-mb jet across portions
of New Mexico. This pattern would favor a surface cyclone centered
across portions of Northwest Kansas and Nebraska. GEFS ensemble
guidance suggests that an 850-mb high pressure system spread across
portions of the Southeastern United States and back into Mexico and
Baja California will aid this surface cyclone by providing
southwesterly surface winds across the forecast region Tuesday. A
mix of wet and dry conditions are possible with this pattern, with
warm and dry conditions out ahead of the cyclone's cold front, and
possibly precipitation along and behind the front. Forecast highs
across the CWA are in the lower-70s to lower-80s Tuesday, with
relative humidities (RH) in the mid-teens across portions of
Northwest Kansas and East-Central Colorado. LREF guidance suggests a
30-40% chance for RH values to meet criteria for critical fire
weather across portions of Southern Cheyenne County in Colorado, and
Greeley and Wichita Counties in Kansas. Additionally, NBM guidance
indicates around a 75% chance for wind gusts to meet criteria for
the hazard across this zone. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being
needed rests around 10% at this time. Regarding the cold front
and precipitation, rain is most likely across portions of
Northeastern Colorado, far Southwest Nebraska, and far Northwest
Kansas. NBM guidance suggests around a 30-40% chance for rain
across this zone during the afternoon and evening hours.

The cold front from this cyclone is favored to start crossing the
forecast area sometime between Tuesday evening and Wednesday
morning. Precipitation may be allowed to linger across portions of
the Tri-State area Wednesday morning and afternoon in association
with the front, with high temperatures currently forecast in the
70s. However, RH values may be allowed to drop into the mid-teens in
portions of Eastern Colorado, far Southwest Nebraska, and far
Western Kansas, which could implicate critical fire weather as a
concern once again. LREF guidance provides about a 50-60% chance for
RH values to meet critical fire weather criteria across this zone,
with NBM guidance suggesting over a 40% chance for wind gusts to
meet criteria (highest across Northeast Colorado at around 60-70%).
Precipitation Tuesday and possibly into Wednesday may hinder
critical fire weather during this period, however NBM guidance
suggests less than a 20% chance for more than 0.1 inches of rain
across this zone Tuesday evening and Wednesday. As such, this does
not appear to be a major inhibiting factor for critical fire weather
Wednesday. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed Wednesday
is around 5-10%.

The 850-mb high across the south still looks to be in place
Thursday, with 500-mb troughing across the Western United States
redeveloped. Southwesterly surface level flow would once again be
favored from this pattern, which may set the stage for another
critical fire weather event Thursday afternoon. RH values are
currently forecast in the upper single-digits to mid-teens across
the forecast area, with gusts in the 25-35 mph range. Confidence in
critical fire weather conditions is highest across portions of East-
Central Colorado and far West-Central Kansas, where LREF guidance
suggests over a 90% probability for RH values to meet criteria, and
NBM guidance suggesting about a two in three chance for wind gusts
to meet criteria. As such, confidence in a Red Flag Warning being
needed Thursday is about 20%.

Model guidance begins to diverge a bit more by Friday morning, but
southwesterly upper-level flow appears to be present. A shortwave
trough embedded in this flow moving off to the northeast may provide
a cold front across the area Friday, which could allow a strong cold
front to traverse the region throughout the day. Cooler conditions
may last through the end of the forecast period, with forecast highs
in the lower-60s to lower-70s Friday, and mid-50s to lower-60s
Saturday. Rain may also be associated with the cold frontal passage
going into the weekend, with opportunities for wintry precipitation
during the night hours when temperatures look to drop below
freezing.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 346 PM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Breezy winds from the south are forecast to continue with gusts
around 30 knots for each terminal. Confidence has increased some
in impacts to the MCK terminal so have added in a PROB30. Still
have concern for 50+ knot winds and perhaps blowing dust for GLD
so will continue the PROB30 as well; be on the lookout for
possible AMD's for each over the next few hours. A wall of dust
can't be completely ruled out either which would drop visibility
to less than 1 mile but confidence in that is less than 10% at
this time. LLWS could become a concern if winds weaken but
think there are enough perturbations with the storms this
evening that winds should continue to be breezy. Veering winds
to the west are forecast to occur Sunday morning with VFR
conditions.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for KSZ013-014-027-028-041-042.
     Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for KSZ041-042.
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for COZ253-254.
NE...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...Trigg

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