Tornado Warning 1, NWS Grand Junction, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1255 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected today, with isolated
  severe storms possible through the evening.

- Mountain snow returns tonight through tomorrow morning. A
  Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the eastern Uinta,
  Elkhead, and Park Mountains.

- Freezing temperatures are expected to impact portions of the
  region Monday night into Tuesday and again Tuesday night into
  Wednesday. A Freeze Watch has been issued for the Central and
  Lower Yampa River Basin for Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1243 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TODAY:

Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected through the
evening today while increased instability exists across the region.
The 18Z sounding from GJT shows an increase in low level moisture,
and an increase in PWATs, which should support more rain
actually reaching the ground when compared to yesterday
afternoon. Strong outflow winds, brief periods of heavy rain,
and small hail are the biggest concerns with today's storms.

WET THROUGH MONDAY:

A low pressure system moves across the CWA tonight, bringing a
transition from afternoon convection to more stratiform like
precipitation. This includes widespread rain and high elevation
snow. The center of the low, and greatest forcing, moves across
Utah late tonight, so precipitation rates are forecast to be the
greatest between midnight and noon tomorrow. Snow totals favor
the eastern Uinta mountains, where a Winter Weather Advisory is
in place above 8500 feet from 6 PM this evening through 6 PM
tomorrow. A Winter Weather Advisory is also in place for the
Elkhead and Park Mountains above 9500 feet from midnight tonight
to 9 PM tomorrow. By tomorrow afternoon the system will be east
of our area, however, lingering moisture could allow for some
light snowfall in the higher terrain though the day.

FREEZE POTENTIAL:

Cold air advection associated with the low pressure system moving
through the area tonight will significantly drop temperatures.
Tomorrow's high temperatures will be around 15 to 25 degrees
below normal. Tomorrow night's low temperatures will also be
well below normal for this time of the year. Freeze Watches are
in effect for late tomorrow night through Tuesday morning for
the Central and Lower Yampa River Basin. Temperatures will
gradually warm back to above normal by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1153 AM MDT Sun May 17 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are developing across the region this
afternoon. The main threats with any showers or storms that
impact a terminal will be gusty and erratic winds, lightning,
and brief heavy rain. Heavy rain will supersede the gusty winds
after 00z as moisture increases. Convective showers and storms
will transition to more stratiform activity from north to south
starting after 03z. Higher elevation terminals, including KTEX,
could see snow mix in after 12z tomorrow morning as a cold front
moves through. Winds this afternoon will be southwesterly with
gusts of 25-35 knots expected, though higher gusts will be
possible with showers or storms. Winds will transition to
northerly to northwesterly tonight as the cold front moves
through, roughly accompanying the transition from convective to
stratiform precipitation. VFR conditions will prevail through
06z, then a mix of VFR and MVFR is expected as ceilings lower
and visibility is impacted by precipitation.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
     for COZ001-002.
     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 PM MDT
     Monday for COZ004.
UT...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT
     Monday for UTZ023.

&&

DISCUSSION...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT

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