Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
118 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather is likely this afternoon and evening, mainly in
  areas along/east of Highway 281. All severe threats are
  possible (large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes),
  mainly in the 5pm-10pm window.

- Portions of northern Kansas and perhaps the Highway 81
  corridor in Nebraska have one more chance for severe storms on
  Monday afternoon. The rest of the area will be noticably
  cooler with only a few showers expected.

- Cooler-than-normal conditions are expected through midweek.
  Then we gradually trend warmer (with more rain chances) late
  in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

The main concern in this forecast revolves around severe
convection today and on Monday.

Currently, most of the area is in the warm sector, with a cold
front pushing in from the west, and a dryline/triple-point
expected to push in from the southwest this afternoon. The
eastern half of the area should be quite unstable by late
afternoon, the MLCAPE values likely in the 2000-4000 J/kg range.
If anything, CAMs have trended a bit further west with storm
initiation...possibly as early as 4pm...but becoming more likely
by around 5pm in the Highway 281 corridor. Strong deep-layer
shear will be supportive of supercells, potentially merging into
multiple line segments later into the evening hours. Confidence
in coverage is highest in northern parts of the area and
southern portions of the area, areas to the south and east of
Hastings may not

Generally the entire area near/east of Highway 281 has some
threat for tornado today, although the highest risk is expected
to be north and east of Grand Island where low-level shear is
maximized. Sig-tor parameter (STP) values of 5-7+ are forecast
by the RAP/mesoanalysis, which is a quite substantial indicator
of tornado potential.

A storm or two may approach western areas later this evening,
but are expected to weaken as the move into the area in the
8-10pm timeframe. Most of our Nebraska counties should be
storm-free by 8-9pm, but southern portions of the area have
potential for a longer-duration event, with storms continuing
to build near and just north of I-70. If this occurs, localized
flooding is possible (mainly Mitchell/Osborne counties),
although this will depend exactly on where storms setup.

Monday will start off cloudy and relatively cool, with
potentially some showers/drizzle in the morning and early
afternoon. An additional round of convection is expected to
develop along the stalled front. Less of the area is expected to
be impacted than today and Saturday, but nevertheless, portions
of northern KS, along with the Hwy 81 corridor could see severe
storms in the 3-8pm timeframe.

A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 9pm today for
southwestern zones that are expected to see a quick burst of dry
air behind the dryline this afternoon. After today, the overall
fire weather threat is relatively low for the rest of this
week.

Not much time was spent on the longer-range forecast. Temperatures
remain below-normal through midweek, then gradually warm back
up into the Memorial Day weekend. Rain/t-storm chances also
return to the forecast by the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

A broken line of thunderstorms is expected to develop over
central Nebraska later this afternoon, although this is more
likely to impact GRI than EAR. Winds also shift to the north-
northwest as a cold front moves into the the area.

Ceilings are expected to fall through tonight, likely becoming
IFR by shortly after sunrise on Monday and persisting through at
least midday. A few showers are also possible Monday morning,
but any additional thunderstorms should remain south/west of
GRI/EAR Monday afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ083-084.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005-006-
     017-018.

&&

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
126 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
181200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
126 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

The threat for severe weather returns late this afternoon and
evening, primarily for areas near and east of Highway 281. Threats
include hail to the size of baseballs, damaging wind gusts near
70 MPH, and a few tornadoes. The main timeframe for severe storms
will be 5pm to 10pm, although a few storms could develop earlier
than that window or persist a bit later than that.

In addition to the severe weather potential today, near critical
to critical fire weather conditions are expected, and a Red Flag
Warning is in effect for portions of the area from 1PM to 9PM.
Please refer to the warning statement for more specific
information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Severe weather concerns continue on Monday as a cold front moves
across the area. The best potential for severe weather will be in
northern Kansas and along and east of the Highway 81 corridor in
Nebraska. The main timeframe of concern is 3PM to 8PM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any hail, damaging wind, or
tornadoes to the National Weather Service.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

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