Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
643 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Enhanced risk of severe weather (level 3 of 5) during the
  evening and overnight hours today and again Sunday. Organized
  damaging wind, very large hail, and tornadoes are possible.

- Dangerous fire weather conditions are becoming an increasing
  concern for Sunday afternoon along and behind a surging dry
  line. Areas along and south of the state line have been placed
  under a Fire Weather Watch.

- Monday's severe weather potential is highly uncertain for our
  local area, as latest trends are shifting the main threat
  corridor along and ahead of a front a bit further E.

- Relatively quiet remainder of the forecast.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 643 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 1 AM. Several
supercells have developed along the warm front along and north
of I-80. Other than the increased coverage of supercells early
this evening, the convective forecast is unfolding as expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Short discussion here as we transition to severe weather ops.

Two main convective regimes for the short term:
1) isolated supercells along a retreating warm front over mainly
south central Nebraska late this afternoon and evening. All
modes of severe will be possible given potent combination of
instability and shear. Already seeing signs of this along I-80
corridor.

2) larger complex of storms is forecast to move in from the W
later this evening. This activity would have an organized with
threat with it, as well as potential for QLCS tornadoes. This is
concerning considering the late time of day and difficult to
spot them. Could also see some large hail, but would be a
secondary threat. Can't rule out a few swaths of wind driven
hail. Isolated gusts up to 80 MPH will be possible in the
strongest cores. This batch favors south central Nebraska more
than Kansas, but KS zones by no means in the clear.

Severe threat should end by around 09Z.

Focus then turns to Sunday's severe weather and fire weather
potential. Will all depend on where the dry line sets up, but
trends have been to shift this further E and bring more of the
dry surge and fire weather into play. Will need to seem how
things settle from today...but anywhere along and ahead of the
dry line could see significant severe weather, including intense
supercells with very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and
tornadoes. The greatest tornado threat looks to be along and
E/NE of the Hwy 81 corridor. Late afternoon and early evening is
the main time frame of concern for dry line storms. Another
batch of severe storms with mainly a large hail and wind threat
could move in from the NW along the primary cold front late
Sunday evening and into the overnight.

Fire weather discussion will be included below shortly.

Exactly how things unfold Sunday will determine frontal location
for Monday. As mentioned above, this is trending further E/SE
such that most of out area could be on the cool side of the
front by midday. In fact, far N/NW zones could struggle to get
out of the 50s while far S/SE zones push 90F. A strong spring
front, indeed, that is bound to spark off widespread severe
weather...just a question of if it's here or just E/SE.

Not much time spent in the extended periods as it appears fairly
quiet.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 643 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Severe thunderstorms are near both terminals to start the 00Z
forecast period. Storm motion has been near-stationary, so will
continue with PROB30 mentions for now. Eventually storms will
move over each terminal by the end of the evening, but there is
increasing uncertainty in their severity beyond 02-03Z. Large
hail and damaging winds are possible with any storm. Heavy rain
from storms will also reduce visibility to at least IFR levels
at times. Chances for thunderstorms diminish overnight. MVFR
ceilings could develop late tonight into Sunday morning. Outside
of thunderstorms, winds will remain breezy through the forecast
period with easterly direction through tonight turning to
southerly by Sunday afternoon. There are low chances for
thunderstorms developing mid to late Sunday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 643 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Dangerous fire weather conditions are possible along and south of
the Nebraska-Kansas state line Sunday afternoon and evening. This
roughly includes areas along and between Highways 183 and 281, and
along and south of Highway 136. Winds will turn from southeast to
south Sunday morning and increase to 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to
40 mph in the afternoon. Relative humidity is forecast to fall as
low as 10 to 15 percent. Near critical fire weather conditions
could extend north along and to the east of the Highway 281
corridor, where winds will be similar but humidity slightly
higher.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday
     evening for NEZ083>085.
KS...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday
     evening for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

UPDATE...NWS Bismarck
DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...NWS Bismarck
FIRE WEATHER...NWS Bismarck

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
325 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
171200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
325 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Isolated supercell thunderstorms may develop anytime after 5PM
this evening along a retreating warm front draped across south
central Nebraska. This potential is highly conditional, but should
activity develop, very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a
tornado or two would all be possible.

More widespread thunderstorms are forecast to move in from the
west late this evening, generally after 8-9PM, and continue into
the overnight. This activity is expected to be severe, with
damaging wind gusts around 70 mph the primary threat. However,
large hail and tornadoes will also be possible. Isolated rainfall
amounts up to 2 inches may lead to brief ponding issues in known
trouble spots. The severe threat is forecast to end by around 3AM
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

On Sunday, the severe weather risk appears more isolated as
hot, dry air surges north into south central Nebraska. After
3 PM, isolated supercells are possible, mainly over portions of
south central Nebraska east of Highway 281. Should these storms
develop, they will move north northeast, and could produce up to
baseball size hail and tornadoes. Again, coverage appears limited
but the intensity of storms later Sunday could be very strong for
a time. During the later evening hours, additional severe storms
may move into the areas from the west, and favors south central
Nebraska for the most coverage of storms. Large hail and damaging
winds are the primary risks late Sunday evening and overnight.

On Monday, there is a lingering severe weather risk as a cold
front moves across the area. There remains uncertainty in timing
and location of the front, so stay tuned for more forecast
updates throughout the weekend. At this time, the greatest risk
looks to remain along, and especially east, of Highway 81.

In addition to the severe weather potential Sunday, dangerous fire
weather conditions are becoming increasingly likely for areas
along and south of the Nebraska, Kansas state line, within a zone
of surging hot, dry, and windy air from the southwest. A Fire
Weather Watch has been issued for these locations for Sunday
afternoon into early evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to
report any low level rotation, hail, or wind gusts over 50 mph to
the National Weather Service.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Thies

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Hastings NE
535 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0452 PM     Hail             Henderson               40.78N 97.81W
05/16/2026  M1.50 Inch       York               NE   Public

            Actually 1 inch 5/8 inches in diameter.

&&

NOAA/NWS/Moritz

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Hastings NE
537 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0528 PM     Hail             1 E Miller              40.93N 99.37W
05/16/2026  M1.75 Inch       Buffalo            NE   Fire Dept/Rescue

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Hastings NE
546 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0542 PM     Hail             Henderson               40.78N 97.81W
05/16/2026  M1.75 Inch       York               NE   Public

&&

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