Red Flag Warning 9, NWS Glasgow, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
225 PM MDT Tue May 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures continue though at least Friday with highs in
  the 90s to around 100 degrees.

- Gusty southeast winds starting Tuesday will lead to critical
  fire weather in areas of dry fuels and a hazard to small craft
  on Fort Peck Lake.

- After the isolated thunderstorms early this evening, the next
  chance arrives this weekend with the best chances west of
  Highway 24.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
Afternoon temperatures are expected to remain in the 90s and low
100s through Friday as an upper ridge sets up from now through
Friday. Nighttime temperatures will also be warm. All temps are
expected to challenge records.

Isolated thunderstorms will hang around an area from the southeast
zones to the north-central zones with movement parallel to that
through about 9 or 10 pm. Winds and brief heavy rain will be the
greatest threats.

There is a chance of thunderstorms like these in the southwest
part of the area as well. Wednesday and Thursday are expected to
be similar to today, with most convection confined to the western
part of the area though. There is critical fire weather, strong
winds over Fort Peck Lake, and intense heat over the area the next
few days, so various weather products have been issued for all
these hazards.

For Saturday, high PWAT values (1 to 1.3 inches) are expected in
the atmosphere over the area, so thunderstorms that occur this day
will be prone to heavy downpours. So far, the deterministic GFS
has these values dropping back down below one inch by Sunday
afternoon. Overall, there are at least isolated thunderstorms
possible each day through June 3rd, and temperatures will drop
into the 70s and 80s for highs thankfully.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
Only deviation was to increase PoPs to reflect CAMs through late
this evening.

There is high confidence in hot temperatures (90 or above) through
Friday for at least a few locations. Low temperatures will
struggle to drop below the mid 60s as well, so adequate water
intake will be important.

There is moderate confidence in thunderstorms bringing strong
wind gusts to a few locations today, and low confidence for these
type of gusts on Wednesday. There is moderate to high confidence
in isolated to scattered thunderstorms occurring somewhere in the
area from Friday through early June.

There is high confidence in the Red Flag Warnings, the Heat
Advisories, and the Lake Wind Advisory products.

&&

.AVIATION...
LAST UPDATED: 2020Z.

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR, but small chance of MVFR at KOLF.

DISCUSSION: Isolated thunderstorms will bring erratic winds and
possible brief MVFR conditions through 01Z Wednesday mainly at
KOLF.

DENSITY ALTITUDE: Will be high due to near 100 degrees temps creating
thinner air in the afternoons through Friday. Temperatures of
100-105 are expected to occur near KOLF.

WIND: Southeast at 15 to 25 knots with gusts to 35 knots.

EQUIPMENT: KSDY obs are unavailable and will be AMD NOT SKED.

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory until 6 AM MDT Thursday for Central and
Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone-
Petroleum.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Central and
Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Daniels-Dawson-
Eastern Roosevelt-Garfield-McCone-Northern Phillips-Northern
Valley-Petroleum-Prairie-Richland-Sheridan-Western Roosevelt-
Wibaux.

Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for Central and
Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Daniels-Dawson-
Eastern Roosevelt-Garfield-McCone-Northern Phillips-Northern
Valley-Prairie-Richland-Sheridan-Western Roosevelt-Wibaux.

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for
Dawson/McCone/Prairie/Richland/Wibaux Counties-Fort Peck
Reservation and Daniels/Roosevelt/Sheridan Counties.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM MDT Wednesday for
Dawson/McCone/Prairie/Richland/Wibaux Counties-Fort Peck
Reservation and Daniels/Roosevelt/Sheridan Counties.

&&

weather.gov/glasgow

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
459 PM MDT Tue May 26 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     12 SSE Sprole           47.95N 104.94W
05/26/2026                   Richland           MT   Trained Spotter

            Wind and lightning damaged trees.

&&

TFJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
531 PM MDT Tue May 26 2026

MTZ016-017-022-023-059-061-270030-
Garfield MT-Central and Southeast Phillips MT-Northern Valley MT-
Northern Phillips MT-McCone MT-Central and Southern Valley MT-
531 PM MDT Tue May 26 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of east central
Phillips, northeastern Garfield, southwestern Valley and northwestern
McCone Counties through 630 PM MDT
...

At 529 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong storm outflow along
a line extending from near Hinsdale to near Rock Creek Rec Area.
Movement was west at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Sudden large waves on Fort Peck lake are
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Glasgow, Malta, Fort Peck, Saco, The Pines Rec Area, Tampico,
Hinsdale, Duck Creek Rec Area, Fort Peck Marina, Hell Creek Rec Area,
Nelson Creek Rec Area, Rock Creek Rec Area, Vandalia, Sleeping
Buffalo, Park Grove, The Bentonite Plant, Weldon, Haxby, Content, and
Bowdoin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

If on or near Fort Peck Lake, get out of the water and move indoors
or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
these storms pass.

&&

LAT...LON 4843 10808 4737 10702 4760 10571 4862 10707
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 082DEG 13KT 4843 10710 4772 10614

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

GAH

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