Tornado Warning 4, NWS Fort Worth, TX

880 
WWUS54 KFWD 120625
SVSFWD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
125 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

TXC133-429-120635-
/O.CAN.KFWD.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-260412T0645Z/
Eastland TX-Stephens TX-
125 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL EASTLAND AND SOUTH CENTRAL
STEPHENS COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The rotation associated with the storm that prompted the Tornado
Warning has weakened, and no longer appears capable of producing a
tornado. Therefore the Tornado Warning has been cancelled.  However
gusty winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 AM CDT for
north central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3240 9893 3245 9897 3260 9882 3246 9869
TIME...MOT...LOC 0623Z 236DEG 21KT 3248 9884 

$$

Darrah

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
710 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and a few storms will continue through the
  late evening hours. An increase in coverage of showers/storms is
  expected overnight into early Sunday morning.

- Additional thunderstorms may develop in the wake of morning
  activity by Sunday afternoon. This is most likely to occur south
  of I-20 where a few storms could be strong.

- An active pattern will persist with daily storm chances next
  week, with a continued threat for some strong/severe storms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 656 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Scattered warm advection showers will continue through the late
evening hours with a diurnal downward trend in coverage after
sunset. Large scale forcing for ascent will remain persistent
across West Texas through late tonight and as such, the large area
of ongoing showers and thunderstorms will make steady eastward
progress. While the main upper trough will remain well to the
west, an embedded perturbation spreading out of northwest Mexico
and its attendant upper jet streak should be sufficient to
maintain a semi-organized line of convection into North Texas
overnight and into early Sunday morning. Most of the latest hi-res
guidance shows at least a broken line of convection arriving
around sunrise Sunday before weakening with eastward progression.
Given the increasing probabilities of morning convection, we've
lowered PoPs significantly after 18Z across much of North Texas.
The exception may be across some of our Central TX counties where
a very moist airmass will remain in place characterized by PWs
around 1.8". Even weak forcing for ascent in this uncapped airmass
should support continued scattered convection through the
afternoon. Otherwise, most areas should see a convective lull
through Sunday night. No other changes needed at this time.

Dunn

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Warm advection showers and isolated storms will continue to
spread across the region through this evening. Occasional
lightning will be the main risk with this activity; severe
weather is not anticipated. South winds will remain breezy the
rest of the day with high temperatures saying in the upper 70s to
lower 80s.

The main complex of storms will develop near a surface trough and
dryline across West Texas this evening and spread eastward
overnight. Our thinking is that this activity should be
approaching the I-35 corridor near or just before sunrise Sunday.
Latest high-res guidance continue to struggle on how intense this
activity will be as it crosses our region, but we can't rule out
a few strong storms overnight with gusty winds mainly west of
I-35. Showers and storms should eventually weaken as they move
east of I-35 later in the morning as the main disturbance moves
northeast and outside of our area. However, any leftover boundary
will serve as a focus of showers and storms in the afternoon and
evening. This where the main forecast challenge still resides.
Depending on where these outflow boundaries are located is where
the best risk for strong to severe storms will all hazards
possible will materialize. We're still watching areas along and
east of I-35, especially in Central and East TX during the late
Sunday afternoon and evening hours. Additionally, pockets of
moderate to heavy rain are expected to occur with tonight's
activity (mainly across our western zones) and tomorrow afternoon
depending on where storms develop. Continue to monitor the
forecast updates as details continue to be refined.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 157 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

The active weather pattern is expected to continue through all of
next week with daily chances for showers/storms and at least some
potential for strong/severe weather each day. However, Monday
continues to look like an overall lull in the daily activity as
our region sees height rises aloft due to shortwave ridging
between Sunday's wave and the next one on Tuesday. In addition,
forecast soundings show a strong cap that will be difficult to
overcome from daytime heating alone. Even so, guidance suggests a
few isolated storms may form on the dryline across West Texas
which could reach our western counties during the late
afternoon/evening, with other WAA showers and maybe a storm or
two possible across the rest of our area. CAPE/shear parameters,
while not as high as Sunday, would be favorable for a
strong/severe threat if storms can occur.

Tuesday has more likelihood for a few strong to severe storms in
our CWA as a 55-60 kt H5 jet ejects out of northern Mexico across
Texas towards Oklahoma. Although the main forcing will be focused
to our north across the Central Plains and Midwest, and forecast
soundings show a sizable cap across our region, lift appears
strong enough for widely scattered storms to form on/near the
dryline during the afternoon/evening across our western counties.
CAPE/shear combo would once again be favorable for all severe
hazards should storms be able to form/maintain themselves.
Wednesday looks to have a similar scenario as Tuesday with the
main trough axis ejecting out of the Rockies into the Plains, but
like Tuesday uncertainty exists on how much storm activity can
form.

The rest of the week will see a secondary upper trough take shape
over the western CONUS, which 00Z guidance now shows ejecting out
into the Plains next weekend. This setup will provide two more
days of possible dryline storms on Thursday and Friday with low
pops warranted, although the lack of any notable shortwave on
Thursday likely will keep that day quiet. GFS/ECMWF show the
aforementioned upper trough pushing a strong cold front southward
across North and Central Texas from Friday night into Saturday,
bringing more widespread precip along with a return to much cooler
temperatures for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 656 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Scattered showers and a few storms will continue into the evening
hours across parts of North Texas with a gradual downward trend in
coverage over the next few hours. Later tonight, widespread
MVFR/IFR cigs will spread northward and we should see an increase
in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms approaching from the
west. This activity will likely push into the D10 airspace around
11Z with a TEMPO for TSRA between 12-14Z at all sites. IFR cigs
are likely to prevail for a few hours in the wake of any morning
convection with cigs gradually improving through the day.
Additional TS chances appear to be pretty low through Sunday
night.

Dunn

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 656 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Spotter activation is not likely through tomorrow, but any reports
of hazardous weather to the National Weather Services are appreciated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    67  79  68  84 /  40  90  10  10
Waco                67  77  68  82 /  30  80  20  20
Paris               64  77  65  80 /  20  50  10  20
Denton              65  79  65  84 /  60  90   0  10
McKinney            67  77  67  81 /  30  90  10  10
Dallas              68  79  68  84 /  30  90  10  10
Terrell             66  78  67  82 /  20  70  20  20
Corsicana           69  80  69  84 /  20  50  20  20
Temple              66  79  68  83 /  30  80  20  20
Mineral Wells       64  82  65  87 /  90  80   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Sanchez
LONG TERM....Sanchez
AVIATION...Dunn

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
853 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

TXZ115-120230-
Stephens TX-
853 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Stephens
County through 930 PM CDT...

At 852 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Moran, or 14 miles northwest of Cisco, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Hubbard Creek Reservoir around 915 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Eolian and
Harpersville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3296 9909 3295 9895 3277 9876 3251 9901
      3252 9910
TIME...MOT...LOC 0152Z 215DEG 23KT 3254 9915

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

30

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
959 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

TXZ100-115-120400-
Stephens TX-Young TX-
959 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Young
and north central Stephens Counties through 1100 PM CDT...

At 959 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Crystal Falls, or 12 miles north of Breckenridge, moving northeast at
25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Graham, Lake Graham, Crystal Falls, Newcastle, Eliasville, Murray,
and South Bend.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3296 9902 3296 9895 3309 9895 3332 9884
      3316 9852 3282 9886 3291 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 0259Z 212DEG 20KT 3293 9890

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Shamburger